Do you believe Donald Trump will win the presidency?

[oath2order]

The Supreme Court can mess up too. In fact, there are two decisions, whether you're a conservative or liberal, that will always be remembered as the worst decisions ever made.

Citizens United and what's the other?

 

[Alolan_Apples]

Citizens United and what's the other?

Actually, the two supreme court cases I felt that were the worst were Dred Scott v Sandford and Plessy v Ferguson. I'm glad that we would never make ruling like these again. So no matter what conservatives say are the worst or what liberals say are the worst, these two are always the worst.

 

[Red Cat]

Have you forgotten about the Supreme Court case in 2000? If vote recounts were allowed, Gore would've won the election because Florida was doing the vote recounts. But due to the ruling, no state could recount their votes anymore, which is why Bush won, and why we were involved in Iraq for a long time.

I know that, but if we just went by national popular vote and not the electoral college, the Supreme Court wouldn't have gotten involved over several hundred votes in Florida when Gore received several hundred thousand more votes nationally than Bush did.

 

[Candy83]

My Estimate

Even thought this is "Brewster's Caf?," I don't usually look to posting anything on politics because that is not what The Bell Tree Forums is about.

What I will post here, with making an exception, has to do with saying what I think may or will happen. (What I want to happen is not the point.)

With this post on Monday, October, 24, 2016, we have just 15 days from the scheduled date of the presidential election for Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

In 2012, President Barack Obama was re-elected by +4 percentage points over Mitt Romney. (It was, whole-number estimates, 51 for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.) The polls, especially an aggregation from several polls (ones which are believable and others not so much) has it that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump nationally by anywhere between +6 to +10.

Since the presidency is in the Democratic column, with Obama, Donald Trump is trying to flip it Republican. In 2012, Obama was re-elected with 26 states, plus District of Columbia, and 332 electoral votes. Mitt Romney carried 24 states and 206 electoral votes. (The magic number is 270. That accounts for the 100 U.S. Senate seats, the 435 U.S. House seats, and the three electors from District of Columbia. 270 is "50 percent plus 1" of that maximum 538.)

For this polling to indicate that Hillary Clinton is overperforming Barack Obama's re-election margin means she will likely have a larger number of electoral votes. I figure the best case scenario for a losing Donald Trump is to flip Iowa (6 electoral votes) and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine (1 electoral vote), which Democrats should be carrying and for which Donald Trump has polled well, while Hillary Clinton flips North Carolina (15 electoral votes). It could also be that Donald Trump flips no states, because Hillary Clinton wins by at least +8 in the U.S. Popular Vote, and she wins Democratic pickups from not only North Carolina (15 electoral votes) but also from Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (on the cusp with its 16 electoral votes), and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (1 electoral vote). In the first case, that's 340 electoral votes for electing Hillary Clinton. In the second case, with Donald Trump flipping nothing, she would win with 375 electoral votes. (So, I figure she'll win with an electoral-vote score in the range of 340 to 375.)

Here is the image of the map for her best potential. (It's not a prediction. It's not me trying to predict everything correctly. It's an estimate of the potential of what may happen for the candidate who will win.) The light shades are pickup states.

​

 

[Mink777]

Two weeks guys!

 

[Alolan_Apples]

Two weeks guys!

Two weeks and we will be free from these bad people.

Our country will be a lot better if we were a pomarchy (where everyone in control are apples instead of humans) than with either one of these guys become president. I would love to see our bills be written by apples.

 

[visibleghost]

Two weeks and we will be free from these bad people.

Our country will be a lot better if we were a pomarchy (where everyone in control are apples instead of humans) than with either one of these guys become president. I would love to see our bills be written by apples.

imagibe how sad it would be tho
if the president was eaten by some unknowing human who just wanted an apple ):

 

[moonford]

No, I don't think the talking orange turd will win the election.

 

[visibleghost]

what would actually happen if trump won tho? surely he wouldnt be able to actually do what he's promised, right? i mean he would mess stuff up for sure but would he really be able to , like, build a wall or w/e...?

i hope and think that hillary clinton will win but idk i mean trump does have a lot of support..

 

[Alolan_Apples]

imagibe how sad it would be tho
if the president was eaten by some unknowing human who just wanted an apple ):

I know it sounds depressing, but I was suggesting that because of my weird apple obsession I had since the last TBT Fair. At least it's better than Trump or Clinton. But I would rather have a third-party candidate this time.

I may be very conservative, but I would rather be remembered for my weird apple obsession than my political positions of being far-right by TBT's standards.

 

[oath2order]

Actually, the two supreme court cases I felt that were the worst were Dred Scott v Sandford and Plessy v Ferguson. I'm glad that we would never make ruling like these again. So no matter what conservatives say are the worst or what liberals say are the worst, these two are always the worst.

Well we kind of have with the gutting of the Voting Rights Act but that's just my opinion.

I know it sounds depressing, but I was suggesting that because of my weird apple obsession I had since the last TBT Fair. At least it's better than Trump or Clinton. But I would rather have a third-party candidate this time.

I may be very conservative, but I would rather be remembered for my weird apple obsession than my political positions of being far-right by TBT's standards.

Your name, in my opinion, is synonymous with right-wingers and conservatism, at least on TBT.

 

[Alolan_Apples]

Well we kind of have with the gutting of the Voting Rights Act but that's just my opinion.

I can see, but according to many sources, Dred Scott v Sandford was considered the worst case in the Supreme Court. It was even the worst pre-Civil War event besides the secession (worse than the Kansas-Nebraska Act, worse than the Compromise of 1850, worse than all of that).

Your name, in my opinion, is synonymous with right-wingers and conservatism, at least on TBT.

I'm guessing you're saying that because of how conservative my posts were.

 

[Frostbite2002]

I sincerely hope not! But I suppose there is a real possibility and it worries me quite a bit. I'm very glad I don't live in America as things appear to be turning to chaos over there! (I can't say my country is much better, but I'm glad that we don't have the presidential debate to deal with) Even though my country isn't associated with America, the presidential candidates is the only thing people are talking about. Hillary is not a good option for president either, but I'm sure she is better than trump. Oh well, we will just have to wait and see!

 

[hamster]

i think he's going to win. i'm not pro trump, but i prefer him to win rather than hillary anyway

 

[nintendofan85]

Do you believe that the new Clinton email investigation will have an impact on the election?

 

[Soda Fox]

Do you believe that the new Clinton email investigation will have an impact on the election?

I think it has a little, the still undecided are probably going with Trump now. I don't think anyone who were already voting for Hillary will be swayed though.

 

[Red Cat]

Do you believe that the new Clinton email investigation will have an impact on the election?

It shouldn't, but enough people are morons that when they see Hillary and email in the same sentence they automatically assume she has done something illegal without even reading the story. It's amazing that there are still undecided voters at this point. A lot of undecided voters started to think that they could not vote for Trump after his comments on that video and his poor debate performances, but now they are changing their minds again because that stuff is so two weeks ago and Clinton's emails are now the flavor of the day again. So basically, these people are going to make their decision based on the last negative thing they hear about a candidate when they have had one and a half years to make their decision.

 

[nintendofan85]

It shouldn't, but enough people are morons that when they see Hillary and email in the same sentence they automatically assume she has done something illegal without even reading the story. It's amazing that there are still undecided voters at this point. A lot of undecided voters started to think that they could not vote for Trump after his comments on that video and his poor debate performances, but now they are changing their minds again because that stuff is so two weeks ago and Clinton's emails are now the flavor of the day again. So basically, these people are going to make their decision based on the last negative thing they hear about a candidate when they have had one and a half years to make their decision.

Still, James Comey's motives seem pretty suspicious.

 

[zoetrope]

I'm not going to answer this because I don't want to jinx it. Seriously.

 

[Kirbystarship]

It shouldn't, but enough people are morons that when they see Hillary and email in the same sentence they automatically assume she has done something illegal without even reading the story. It's amazing that there are still undecided voters at this point. A lot of undecided voters started to think that they could not vote for Trump after his comments on that video and his poor debate performances, but now they are changing their minds again because that stuff is so two weeks ago and Clinton's emails are now the flavor of the day again. So basically, these people are going to make their decision based on the last negative thing they hear about a candidate when they have had one and a half years to make their decision.

Because the Emails are more important. And Trump's tape is 10 years old.

And BTW Trump did good at the secont and third debates, he did bad at the first debate.