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What are the odds of picking up a wifi/streetpass villager?

Every time i've gone to another persons town or street passed someone when I had 9 villagers, i've picked someone up. I've gotten Anabelle, Rasher & Croque this way. It's definitely not a feature I enjoy in New Leaf.
 
It's probably nearly unavoidable.

I'm just saying that because I'm bitter as all hell and have had my 10th slot filled 3 times because of it. I have no concrete evidence, though I wish I did.
 
I've only ever had it happen to me once, and I never have more than 9 villagers and do most of my trading in my town. Maybe I've just been lucky though.
 
When I first started playing the game me and my friend would visit each other a lot. I'd never pick anyone up from her town even after villagers had recently moved out of her town, and she'd never pick anyone up from my town even after villagers had recently moved out. I would also visit a lot of towns for trades and nobody would ever move in from their towns.

Then one day I did a trade over tumblr and Bree moved in without being invited. After that whenever I visitted or streetpassed someone a new villager would move in every time :/

My *theory* is that once you've picked up a 10th villager its almost unavoidable to keep picking up new ones.
 
I got Moe that way...pissed me off big-time because I was saving that spot for a dreamie >C
 
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