Alolan_Apples
“Assorted” Collector
Since the US Presidential Election is next year, I would like to share what my current predictions on who’s likely to win and what each party should do.
First of all, let’s go over the House. Right now, the Democrats control the House of Representatives 235 to 199, with Nancy Pelosi as the speaker of the House, Steny Hoyer as the majority leader, and Kevin McCarthy as the minority leader. Like every election year, all 435 seats are up for election. Some are fixed Democratic, some are fixed Republican, and others have a possibility to flip, with some being strongly to one side, some leaning one side, and others for tossup.
The Republicans, after having control of the House for eight years (with the latter four being the years they had control of both chambers) have lost control in 2018. The heavy voter turnout and suburban voters ditching the Republican Party have caused that. But here are the reasons why I think the Republicans lost. First, Trump was a heavily hated president. Many people think he was the worst president, even if we were to include Herbert Hoover and James Buchanan (I thought the same way with Obama too). Hence why the high voter turnout and why some of the George Bush Republicans (aka moderate Republicans that dominated suburbs) voted Democrat. Second, if a Republican Congressman hates Trump, they become very unpopular among their party. My third and final main reason was that when the Republicans had control of the House, they were not very productive. They voted several times to repeal Obamacare, which they did for years, but when they finally had the presidency, they cowered. There were other reasons as well. The final blow to their dominance was the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, which gave Republicans control of the Supreme Court.
Now the House is in control by the Democrats. But I don’t think they could keep their leadership. In recent times, the party has sold their soul to socialism, a very bad idea Americans have vowed not to adopt in the government. Even the ideas of free healthcare and free college are bad. It’s not worth raising taxes to pay for a healthcare system that caps out doctors and forces patients to wait months for a surgery (which is unethical). It’s not worth raising taxes to pay for art majors to get free tuition, only to perform poorly in college or get no quality job as the end result. If the Cold War wasn’t enough to teach us a lesson, they should look at how horrible Venezuela got. Despite this, they still want socialism. It’s also worth mentioning how extreme their party went on the issue of abortion. Not only the DNC expelled pro-life from their party, but the blue states passed very radical laws, with Oregon, Virginia, and New Mexico being the worst offenders. I get it that overturning Roe v Wade is a bad idea, but supporting these extreme laws is not a good way of handling the situation. They also supported sanctuary cities, reparations for slavery, the Green New Deal, and abolishing ICE. If they keep this up (or continue isolating themselves from conservative or moderate positions), they will lose some of their loyalists as they will vote for any liberal independent over their party.
It’s also worth mentioning that some of their politicians and columnists are giving their party a bad name. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, a prime example of how radical the Democrats have gotten. Ilhan Omar, made a controversial comment on the 9/11 attacks. Rashida Tlaib, made a controversial comment on the Holocaust. The list could go on and on. If they win control of the House in 2020, they should feel lucky that they did, despite what they have become. And if they impeach Trump, that’s it. The Republicans will win the House.
The next part is the Senate. Unless if otherwise happens, I predict no change in leadership statistics. Republicans will have a lot more seats to defend, but only three seats are for tossup. Since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore, and since Kyrsten Sinema won the 2018 Senate Election, the states of Arizona and Alabama would be more interesting to watch. Colorado too. I think McSally would win the special election of the seat John McCain had. Alabama’s seat may go back to the Republicans. And Colorado’s seat may go to the Democrats. If all of this is true, and nothing else happens, it will stay 53-47 with the Republicans in control. Of course, I should also pay attention to Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia, but I think the Republicans would still win the Senate there. It’s not the same as 2018.
Finally, we can go to the presidency. If the electoral college hasn’t been eliminated in some of these states that voted to do so, then here are the conditions I predict: Some states are going to vote Republican like always. Some states are going to vote Democrat like always. So it’s up to the swing states. First, let’s look at Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I honestly think Trump’s win of Wisconsin and Michigan are a fluke, just like how Indiana and North Carolina were for Obama. But Pennsylvania, I think it might go the path Virginia went but for Republicans. Next, let’s look at Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. I think the Republicans can keep North Carolina and Indiana while Virginia continues trending Democratic. Now, let’s look at Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Florida. Nevada is no longer in the swing state, and I think Ohio is already on its way out of that phase too. Colorado has been primarily Republican until 2008, but I think it’s now a Democrat stronghold. Iowa has been primarily Democrat, but I think it’s now a Republican stronghold. So this leaves us with Florida. Since 1996, the election winner has always won Florida, as it could either be a Democratic state or Republican state. Despite close election, I think it might be a red state. I have been hearing about Texas, Arizona, and Georgia becoming swing states, but I doubt they will be swing states next year.
If the electoral college changes in some states take effect, then those electoral votes will be won by whoever wins the popular vote of the entire country. If the Republicans win enough electoral votes, they will win no matter how they do on the popular vote. But if they do not win enough electoral votes, then it depends on the popular vote of the country. Right now, the Democrats still have the advantage, especially after how 2018 went, but if a blue state abolishes the electoral college, that could backfire, as it would get more Republicans voting in these states. The electoral college was set up for a reason, but our founding fathers never said anything about the “winner-take-all” system.
My current conclusion is that the Republicans will win back the House while keeping the Senate and the Presidency. Anything can change between now and then, but for now, this is what I predict.
First of all, let’s go over the House. Right now, the Democrats control the House of Representatives 235 to 199, with Nancy Pelosi as the speaker of the House, Steny Hoyer as the majority leader, and Kevin McCarthy as the minority leader. Like every election year, all 435 seats are up for election. Some are fixed Democratic, some are fixed Republican, and others have a possibility to flip, with some being strongly to one side, some leaning one side, and others for tossup.
The Republicans, after having control of the House for eight years (with the latter four being the years they had control of both chambers) have lost control in 2018. The heavy voter turnout and suburban voters ditching the Republican Party have caused that. But here are the reasons why I think the Republicans lost. First, Trump was a heavily hated president. Many people think he was the worst president, even if we were to include Herbert Hoover and James Buchanan (I thought the same way with Obama too). Hence why the high voter turnout and why some of the George Bush Republicans (aka moderate Republicans that dominated suburbs) voted Democrat. Second, if a Republican Congressman hates Trump, they become very unpopular among their party. My third and final main reason was that when the Republicans had control of the House, they were not very productive. They voted several times to repeal Obamacare, which they did for years, but when they finally had the presidency, they cowered. There were other reasons as well. The final blow to their dominance was the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, which gave Republicans control of the Supreme Court.
Now the House is in control by the Democrats. But I don’t think they could keep their leadership. In recent times, the party has sold their soul to socialism, a very bad idea Americans have vowed not to adopt in the government. Even the ideas of free healthcare and free college are bad. It’s not worth raising taxes to pay for a healthcare system that caps out doctors and forces patients to wait months for a surgery (which is unethical). It’s not worth raising taxes to pay for art majors to get free tuition, only to perform poorly in college or get no quality job as the end result. If the Cold War wasn’t enough to teach us a lesson, they should look at how horrible Venezuela got. Despite this, they still want socialism. It’s also worth mentioning how extreme their party went on the issue of abortion. Not only the DNC expelled pro-life from their party, but the blue states passed very radical laws, with Oregon, Virginia, and New Mexico being the worst offenders. I get it that overturning Roe v Wade is a bad idea, but supporting these extreme laws is not a good way of handling the situation. They also supported sanctuary cities, reparations for slavery, the Green New Deal, and abolishing ICE. If they keep this up (or continue isolating themselves from conservative or moderate positions), they will lose some of their loyalists as they will vote for any liberal independent over their party.
It’s also worth mentioning that some of their politicians and columnists are giving their party a bad name. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, a prime example of how radical the Democrats have gotten. Ilhan Omar, made a controversial comment on the 9/11 attacks. Rashida Tlaib, made a controversial comment on the Holocaust. The list could go on and on. If they win control of the House in 2020, they should feel lucky that they did, despite what they have become. And if they impeach Trump, that’s it. The Republicans will win the House.
The next part is the Senate. Unless if otherwise happens, I predict no change in leadership statistics. Republicans will have a lot more seats to defend, but only three seats are for tossup. Since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore, and since Kyrsten Sinema won the 2018 Senate Election, the states of Arizona and Alabama would be more interesting to watch. Colorado too. I think McSally would win the special election of the seat John McCain had. Alabama’s seat may go back to the Republicans. And Colorado’s seat may go to the Democrats. If all of this is true, and nothing else happens, it will stay 53-47 with the Republicans in control. Of course, I should also pay attention to Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia, but I think the Republicans would still win the Senate there. It’s not the same as 2018.
Finally, we can go to the presidency. If the electoral college hasn’t been eliminated in some of these states that voted to do so, then here are the conditions I predict: Some states are going to vote Republican like always. Some states are going to vote Democrat like always. So it’s up to the swing states. First, let’s look at Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I honestly think Trump’s win of Wisconsin and Michigan are a fluke, just like how Indiana and North Carolina were for Obama. But Pennsylvania, I think it might go the path Virginia went but for Republicans. Next, let’s look at Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. I think the Republicans can keep North Carolina and Indiana while Virginia continues trending Democratic. Now, let’s look at Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Florida. Nevada is no longer in the swing state, and I think Ohio is already on its way out of that phase too. Colorado has been primarily Republican until 2008, but I think it’s now a Democrat stronghold. Iowa has been primarily Democrat, but I think it’s now a Republican stronghold. So this leaves us with Florida. Since 1996, the election winner has always won Florida, as it could either be a Democratic state or Republican state. Despite close election, I think it might be a red state. I have been hearing about Texas, Arizona, and Georgia becoming swing states, but I doubt they will be swing states next year.
If the electoral college changes in some states take effect, then those electoral votes will be won by whoever wins the popular vote of the entire country. If the Republicans win enough electoral votes, they will win no matter how they do on the popular vote. But if they do not win enough electoral votes, then it depends on the popular vote of the country. Right now, the Democrats still have the advantage, especially after how 2018 went, but if a blue state abolishes the electoral college, that could backfire, as it would get more Republicans voting in these states. The electoral college was set up for a reason, but our founding fathers never said anything about the “winner-take-all” system.
My current conclusion is that the Republicans will win back the House while keeping the Senate and the Presidency. Anything can change between now and then, but for now, this is what I predict.
