A gentle reminder that your game isn't bugged~ You just have bad luck

[Mairen]

This is not a call-out to anyone in particular. I've been seeing multiple threads by multiple people. Mairen sends love to everyone! But I was getting worried that people were going to start thinking there were actual glitches/bugs going around with all of these threads people are making.

I also think it's silly that I'm seeing so many people jump to these drastic conclusions. A glitched game is a pretty serious thing! I can 99% assure you that your game is not bugged, nor glitching if you haven't had a meteor shower/visit by red/campsite visitor/Flick/CJ/etc in X number of days (or ever). You unfortunately just have bad luck (like me). I haven't had a meteor shower yet in game! Thankfully I've been able to visit friend's islands who did have them so I got to put a few wishes in. But I'm not sitting here thinking my game is broken just because things aren't going my way in game. Just be mindful not to bring worry to other players >.< And I'm sending you all luck!♥

 

[seularin]

omg rng is trippin ;_;

 

[Bioness]

Say it louder for the people in the back!

No, but seriously people in general have a hard time with statistics. It just isn't taught in detail during basic math courses and it is human nature to believe personal experiences over hard numbers.

 

[chainosaur]

Wew, as a gacha player I feel and live that bad RNG. It stinks that some people are in a rut with visitors, but them's the breaks as they say.

 

[Sloom]

what?! some people haven't had a meteor shower yet?
have these people been playing since launch? surely you should've had at least 5 by now if you have?

not to flex on you poor souls with seemingly abhorrent luck but damn. if anyone wants a wand I have tons I don't want leftover that I'd be happy to give for free

 

[Sheep Villager]

what?! some people haven't had a meteor shower yet?
have these people been playing since launch? surely you should've had at least 5 by now if you have?

not to flex on you poor souls with seemingly abhorrent luck but damn. if anyone wants a wand I have tons I don't want leftover that I'd be happy to give for free

I've been playing since launch and I've had a single meteor shower. The only Celeste item I've been able to craft is the wand. :'D

On the contrary I've had 5 campsite visitors so far.​

 

[Lady Sugarsaurus]

rng is trippin ;_;

It really is. 2 months and no meteor shower for me either.

 

[Saralie]

what?! some people haven't had a meteor shower yet?
have these people been playing since launch? surely you should've had at least 5 by now if you have?

not to flex on you poor souls with seemingly abhorrent luck but damn. if anyone wants a wand I have tons I don't want leftover that I'd be happy to give for free

I've been playing since launch and I've had 2 meteor showers. I know people who have been playing since launch and haven't had a single one. Like Mairen said, it's all rng.

Luckily I have a network of friends and we all visit each other's islands so I've managed to collect all Celeste DIY.

 

[lieryl]

lmao as a gacha player this isn’t new my bad luck follows me everywhere :,)

 

[Bioness]

what?! some people haven't had a meteor shower yet?
have these people been playing since launch? surely you should've had at least 5 by now if you have?

not to flex on you poor souls with seemingly abhorrent luck but damn. if anyone wants a wand I have tons I don't want leftover that I'd be happy to give for free

I've been playing since launch and I've had a single meteor shower. The only Celeste item I've been able to craft is the wand. :'D

On the contrary I've had 5 campsite visitors so far.​

It really is. 2 months and no meteor shower for me either.

I've been playing since launch and I've had 2 meteor showers. I know people who have been playing since launch and haven't had a single one. Like Mairen said, it's all rng.

Luckily I have a network of friends and we all visit each other's islands so I've managed to collect all Celeste DIY.

Here this should help you all.

Source: https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1-8kQMnmduhraliqCrehaAviG0qlm5BnAb73rPPOf-z0/mobilebasic

Based on this a lot of people haven't had meteor showers.

 

[Mairen]

Hahaha April 1-June 15... I see the problem now

 

[Reploid]

Thank you for this post! I'm glad someone said it.

 

[Xara]

my rng do be bad doe

 

[Blueskyy]

But...but Redd no show up rigged!!!! !

 

[Bioness]

Hahaha April 1-June 15... I see the problem now

Yeah, based on probability there was a 38.73% chance to get one March 20-31st. Then a 33.1% chance to get one April 11th to today.

I'm not sure how to combine those two to get a total probability overall, but you get the idea.

 

[Aliya]

Thank you for posting this! I literally have a heart attack every time I see a post with a new glitch. I wish the RNG was kinder in this game.

 

[DJStarstryker]

Say it louder for the people in the back!

No, but seriously people in general have a hard time with statistics. It just isn't taught in detail during basic math courses and it is human nature to believe personal experiences over hard numbers.

Well, yeah. It doesn't help for understanding when people see 20% and think 1 in 5 chance. They then go and wonder why they haven't seen any campers in the last 2 weeks, because 6+ days at 20% chance means SURELY you should've seen a villager by 14 days, right? Because that's been more than 5!

(Not for you Bioness, but for anyone else who doesn't understand) 5 sided dice are kind of hard to get, so if you have a 6 sided dice, you can use that. Let's just pretend campers are actually at about 1 in 6 rate. Roll that dice once per day for 10 days and see if you get the number one. You might get a number one during that time. Or you might not, because luck says you keep getting 2, 5, and 6 mostly (for example).

That's how RNG is working. It is not saying "Oh, you got 3 today, so we will take number 3 out of the rotation." Nope, it rolls that invisible dice, with all numbers still available, every single day.

 

[Hirisa]

OK but are we absolutely sure my game isn’t...

1-super duper for realsies glitched

2- cursed by gremlins

3- under the remote control of Satan/Hatsune Miku/Tortimer’s ghost?

...because I haven’t seen Redd in three days. Leif says it’s because I’ve angered the saplings but that makes too much sense to be true.

 

[stiney]

what?! some people haven't had a meteor shower yet?
have these people been playing since launch? surely you should've had at least 5 by now if you have?

not to flex on you poor souls with seemingly abhorrent luck but damn. if anyone wants a wand I have tons I don't want leftover that I'd be happy to give for free

Lots of people haven't had any, because it's random. Each day has a certain percentage chance to have a meteor shower, and many of us haven't had our number come up.

I actually think you've had unusually good luck having had at least 5 by now, the rest of us have had middling to bad luck.

Post automatically merged: May 21, 2020

Well, yeah. It doesn't help for understanding when people see 20% and think 1 in 5 chance. They then go and wonder why they haven't seen any campers in the last 2 weeks, because 6+ days at 20% chance means SURELY you should've seen a villager by 14 days, right? Because that's been more than 5!

(Not for you Bioness, but for anyone else who doesn't understand) 5 sided dice are kind of hard to get, so if you have a 6 sided dice, you can use that. Let's just pretend campers are actually at about 1 in 6 rate. Roll that dice once per day for 10 days and see if you get the number one. You might get a number one during that time. Or you might not, because luck says you keep getting 2, 5, and 6 mostly (for example).

That's how RNG is working. It is not saying "Oh, you got 3 today, so we will take number 3 out of the rotation." Nope, it rolls that invisible dice, with all numbers still available, every single day.

Yep, people forget that *each time* the chance is 20% (or 1% or 10% etc). Even with a 50% chance, you could have a run of bad luck. (The likelihood of getting heads 50 times in a row in a heads/tails toss is low, even assuming a fair coin, but it is possible, and this is a more advanced probability calculation I don't know how to do.)

It's the marble problems from math class. If Raymond is a red marble, and every other villager is a blue marble, the odds you'll encounter Raymond on a Nook Miles Tour is 1 out of 384 on your first tour and on your 20th tour, because if you turn down a villager, their blue marble goes back in the bag to pull out.

 

[Sloom]

jesus. didn't realise how unlikely meteor showers are. I'm now pathetically grateful that Celeste seems to love me so

It's the marble problems from math class. If Raymond is a red marble, and every other villager is a blue marble, the odds you'll encounter Raymond on a Nook Miles Tour is 1 out of 384 on your first tour and on your 20th tour, because if you turn down a villager, their blue marble goes back in the bag to pull out.

apart from in this class, there's 26 different marble bags, 25 of them filled with blue marbles and 1 with like 20 blue marbles and one red marble, and the marble bag gets picked first and then the marble in the marble bag gets picked
it's a dumb system lol, I think there's a 0.2% chance of Raymond. thank god I'm not interested in getting him

but I get what you mean, I did the campsite trick on my brother's switch (i invite amiibos every day on my own so I've literally not had one natural camper yet lol) and it often took 8 times of tting 1 week ahead to finally get a camper. it's rough but pretty normal luck. it's not insanely unlucky or anything