Mafia Overwatch Mafia - End Game, Town wins!

[toadsworthy]

Hot damn! A mafia went down?
Why such little kill count?

 

[Jacob]

Oh dang I had a plan and a long fake read set up

Thats a good shot by someone... Good luck Mafia and everyone else! (sorry for unwarranted inactivity, not normally this busy irl....)

 

[Dolby]

Hot damn! A mafia went down?
Why such little kill count?

Since there were only two kills, I'm guessing Endless was responsible for that, as town bus driver

I'm perfectly serious with that thought, not even memeing, as it fits into my thoughts of there being two kp for three mafia

- - - Post Merge - - -

I have one other theory on what could have happened last night, but stating it would be counterproductive

 

[amanda1983]

Haha good luck town!

 

[N e s s]

Oh dang I had a plan and a long fake read set up

Thats a good shot by someone... Good luck Mafia and everyone else! (sorry for unwarranted inactivity, not normally this busy irl....)

Alright, I'm going to look back to see who this could be.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Also, about me promising a VCA: I'm not doing it. There really is no way I could be able to make one otherwise since pretty much the whole playerlist voted Tom.

 

[toadsworthy]

Alright, I'm going to look back to see who this could be.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Also, about me promising a VCA: I'm not doing it. There really is no way I could be able to make one otherwise since pretty much the whole playerlist voted Tom.

Try to find who killed Jacob? I feel like we should focus more on finding who interacted weirdly with Jacob instead?

 

[N e s s]

Try to find who killed Jacob? I feel like we should focus more on finding who interacted weirdly with Jacob instead?

I don't think it was someone who killed Jacob. Look at the kill count: theres only 2 of them. Unless someone says that they were healed last night, then I feel like its more likely that Endless used his bus drive to swap Jacob with someone else.

 

[toadsworthy]

I don't think it was someone who killed Jacob. Look at the kill count: theres only 2 of them. Unless someone says that they were healed last night, then I feel like its more likely that Endless used his bus drive to swap Jacob with someone else.

hm, I guess we will have to get more info from people then.... in the meantime I'm going to go look at Jacob's reads and interactions and see what I can find out

 

[Heyden]

Wew damn, good shot I guess, I’m pretty sure ik who it was There’s a missing KP tho bc 1 seems too little, 3-4 scum depending if theres a hostile 3rd party or something. Doc, bulletproof, bus? Idk

Didn’t expect Amanda to die, I thought it was gonna be like Ness/entropy or something, only person who was wary was Tom but he died soooo…

Oh and Endless did you bus anyone last night?

 

[GetLucky]

Another quirk to the game from other games, we don't find out how each person died in this case. A 1-1 night is good for town because we get to keep our numbers up the same on the mafia.

Don't know how you guys report the happenings of the night, but for me, nothing happened.

 

[toadsworthy]

I mean, theres gotta be a doctor? The monkey guy right? So he could've saved someone....
or Endless the bus driver switched Jacob and whoever else mafia killed? That could result in mafia dying too right?
So we could still have a vigilante to help too right?
how many mafia we think are left?

 

[Primalflexer]

Okay here are my updated reads.

@Apple Town: His posts have helped a lot and he was one of the first to suspect Jacob. Your record is 2 for 2 now lol.

@Dolby I highly doubt that this guy is mafia his posts imo have been very town like and helpful. Townlean

@white although you are new to the game understand that I am also newish. From my perspective it kind of seems like you are taking advantage of being newer. I also think that your reads are all over and some of your posts don't make a lot of sense to me. I suspect you are mafia because of your weak posts.

@Get lucky I wanna see your reads list that you said you were going to post. Or anything really. Hard to judge for me at the moment hopefully he posts more in the future.

@Karen and endless: Town

@Heyden I can't seem to think anything other than your town at this precise moment.

Everyone else is null.

 

[Dolby]

I mean, theres gotta be a doctor? The monkey guy right? So he could've saved someone....
or Endless the bus driver switched Jacob and whoever else mafia killed? That could result in mafia dying too right?
So we could still have a vigilante to help too right?
how many mafia we think are left?

Assuming a 4:1 town to mafia ratio, I'd say there's two mafia left

As I've stated earlier, there are multiple ways that the night results could have happened

 

[N e s s]

About people who interacted weirdly with Jacob: the only things I can find that is weird would be his opinions on White and Dolby. He never gave a specific read about White, but he does point out one of his flaws. Let me just say that Jacob was playing really fluffy: as in he never specifically called anyone scum on his own, he just piled his vote onto Tom.

Ok here are some of the reads I have Day 1
For those who I nulled, I don't have a lot of substance for explanation, but I can provide my reaction to their posts up until now.


Dolby

My initial understanding of Dolby's playstyle: usually quiet and effective. Dolby is smart and usually comes in as a savior to scum snipe when we need him.

Right off the bat before the game started, Dolby added:


I thought this was fair enough, it's never been a huge problem before.
However unaccordingly to this post, Dolby has spent a considerable amount of time playing this game, being like the 7th top poster only on day 1, and suggesting that he's spent inconvenient time IRL playing:

To me this strikes me 2 ways:
- He's trying hard, wants town to win, supplying his thoughts and help, and is being beneficial to town
- He could also be paying more time than normal so that he doesn't come off as "quiet" or "inactive," a point that Dolby is throwing around my way to make me look suspicious. This indicates that maybe he's taking a scum hunt method that worked against him before, purposefully turning his playstyle around and trying it on others for a mislynch.
Some of his posts seem very filler or just a tad forced, in order to get as many posts in as he can. Does it not bother anyone else that instead of compiling big posts this game, Dolby has been keeping them shorter? Now I know thats not a real reason to find someone sus, but as you mentioned not-too-many-posts ago, it's a change in playstyle, which throws me off just a little:

For these reasons, Dolby initially crosses me as Null.


Tom

Tom only has about 5 or 6 actual posts. Usually Tom is one of the hardest players to read, as his activity rates generally show nothing about his alignment.
But, two of his posts stuck out to me:

"based off numbers" as an explanation for his inconfidence in a third party shows me that he's very analytical. A third party is totally possible in a 15 person game, and I've seen games with less players and still a third party. I came to a slight conclusion that Tom is likely on the Mafia team, he knows how many mafia members there are and thinks that having a third party out there as well would throw off the balance in the game. He didn't give much explanation otherwise.

Given his reads post, his read on Dolby is long and detailed and leads that Jacob is suspicious of Dolby: but Jacob reads him as null instead. Yet when you look at his read on Tom, its a small reason that significantly less then the read on Dolby. Its possible that Dolby could be scum and Jacob just didn't want to point the finger at him.

As for his read on Toad and Karen, I'm townleaning on both of them. I have my reasoning for Toad, but it was Karen's post about her rolename color that makes me think she's town.

Now as for his opinion of White, you can read it here:

What DID throw me off was White's unwarrented flippy flopping?? First they called out N e s s for 'hiding something' then called me out for defending him. Not sure if it was a reaction test (don't think it was), but White's next post after those were saying how N e s s and I were both townlean? Thats a red flag for me.

Based off what Jacob said about how he had a huge fake case ready, I'd be willing to put my bets that it was between Dolby and White Flamingo. I'm leaning more towards it being WhiteFlamingo, because of how much more aggressive Jacob sounds here compared to what he thought of Dolby, as well as how he says that White flamingo has "red flags", while Dolby's read doesn't.

 

[Trundle]

If this was a PM game, it would be the point in the game where I get everyone to roleclaim to me so we can just roll through the rest of the way.

Fortunately, it is not, it'll be a lot more interesting. Gonna analyze Jacob's posts.

 

[N e s s]

Also, if Endless didn't switch Jacob with someone then it would be reasonable to assume someone was healed last night.

 

[toadsworthy]

Assuming a 4:1 town to mafia ratio, I'd say there's two mafia left

As I've stated earlier, there are multiple ways that the night results could have happened

I really want to hear from Abe then, to know if he drove anyone

 

[Trundle]

Jacob's Reads

Ok here are some of the reads I have Day 1
For those who I nulled, I don't have a lot of substance for explanation, but I can provide my reaction to their posts up until now.


Dolby

My initial understanding of Dolby's playstyle: usually quiet and effective. Dolby is smart and usually comes in as a savior to scum snipe when we need him.

Right off the bat before the game started, Dolby added:


I thought this was fair enough, it's never been a huge problem before.
However unaccordingly to this post, Dolby has spent a considerable amount of time playing this game, being like the 7th top poster only on day 1, and suggesting that he's spent inconvenient time IRL playing:




To me this strikes me 2 ways:
- He's trying hard, wants town to win, supplying his thoughts and help, and is being beneficial to town
- He could also be paying more time than normal so that he doesn't come off as "quiet" or "inactive," a point that Dolby is throwing around my way to make me look suspicious. This indicates that maybe he's taking a scum hunt method that worked against him before, purposefully turning his playstyle around and trying it on others for a mislynch.
Some of his posts seem very filler or just a tad forced, in order to get as many posts in as he can. Does it not bother anyone else that instead of compiling big posts this game, Dolby has been keeping them shorter? Now I know thats not a real reason to find someone sus, but as you mentioned not-too-many-posts ago, it's a change in playstyle, which throws me off just a little:






For these reasons, Dolby initially crosses me as Null.


Tom


Tom only has about 5 or 6 actual posts. Usually Tom is one of the hardest players to read, as his activity rates generally show nothing about his alignment.
But, two of his posts stuck out to me:




"based off numbers" as an explanation for his inconfidence in a third party shows me that he's very analytical. A third party is totally possible in a 15 person game, and I've seen games with less players and still a third party. I came to a slight conclusion that Tom is likely on the Mafia team, he knows how many mafia members there are and thinks that having a third party out there as well would throw off the balance in the game. He didn't give much explanation otherwise.


Toads

Toad is "green" based only on the fact that early in the game I got an internal feeling telling me he was town. He's been posting a lot similarly to the Dethy game we just played, so everything just feels familiar. Toad usually shows himself truly after a few deaths however.

Once we see how his reads unfold with death alignments, Toads is extremely easy to read. I don't want to lynch him based off of this fact, and also because his activity is helping a lot while others aren't posting as much.


Karen

Never once have I played with Karen (that I recall), but her posts seem really genuine like shes not trying to hold anything back. Mixing this with the fact that shes experienced, I haven't developed a good idea about her yet this game.

(Sorry these seem a little rushed at the end, I tried to get the most important information at the top so I can post it before my bus shows up at 2:30.)

Jacob reads toadsworthy as town here. Read the line I bolded. Looks forced after the bias sets in. Scum reads Tom (makes sense obviously). Seems leaning scum on Dolby, but says null. Seems leaning town on Karen, but says null. Between toadsworthy and Karen, I think there will be 1 scum.

Next, he defended Ness twice but that was pretty much all he did in the first 24 hours:

Honestly I disagree, N e s s always plays town like this. As in going hard and testing for a reaction but-then-it-backfires and he tries to defend himself. I'm townleaning Ness for his effort because it matches his effort from the Dethy we just played

He is justifying toad and Ness reads based on the Dethy in both cases.

Can I get some questions to answer if anyone has some, I feel pretty useless so far tbh and I'd like to have something new to comment on.

Also I'm not completely against Primal or Abe lynch, but I just need a little more convincing than organization. Thats a weak reason

Right now N e s s is my only townlean.

-Defends Ness again.
-Says he would be okay with Primal or Abe lynch.

Also this post: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...-Mafia-Day-2&p=7238140&viewfull=1#post7238140 gives more evidence that whiteflamingo is just a noob townie.

- - - Post Merge - - -

It'll be interesting to hear from Abe. Until then we should just read through toad, Karen, and Toms posts/interactions.

 

[toadsworthy]

Endless I see you, what you dodging bro?

- - - Post Merge - - -

There isn't nothing to hide but the truth

 

[N e s s]

Endless I see you, what you dodging bro?

What do you mean by this?

- - - Post Merge - - -

^ninja'd