With the announcement that Nintendo is going to be releasing a Series 5 of Amiibo Cards, speculation has been all over the Internet about what will make up the series. While I personally believe that Nintendo will stick to a 100-card series with 17 special characters, rerelease the Welcome Amiibo villagers as regular amiibos in Series 5, and release cards for the 8 villagers new to New Horizons, if you add those numbers up (50+8+17), you get 75 cards, meaning there are 25 still unaccounted for. Most people think that either we’ll be getting completely new villagers or more villagers will be coming back to the series. However, if Nintendo does not incorporate the Welcome Amiibo RV villagers, that means there are 75 slots open for 73 villagers- there are 73 non-collab villagers that are not currently in New Horizons. I looked at all of the villagers that are currently not in New Horizons (except for the collab villagers because I’m unsure what to make of those) and looked at various factors that I thought might contribute to (or against) their return to the series. So, assuming the first scenario happens, which ones are most likely to return? I had to split this up into a few parts, the next part will come this weekend.
A few things I looked at when considering the likelihood of the return of each villager: species and personality combo when compared to the rest of their species, looks, connections to other villagers, presence in previous Western games, and how Japan-centered they are (for ones who were never in any game outside of Japan). However, obviously this should all be taken with a grain of salt, because Nintendo will bring back who they want to bring back, but I still thought it was fun to speculate.
One thing I found interesting is that of the 73 non-collab villagers that are not in New Horizons, 21 are jocks, 10 are lazy, 8 are cranky, 11 are peppy, 10 are normal, and 13 are snooty. So jocks are by far the personality with the most missing villagers. However, it should be noted that any male villager could potentially have their personality changed to smug and any female villager could have their personality changed to sisterly. I noted which villagers I thought would make the most sense as one of those personalities. (Note that some Welcome Amiibo villagers had their personalities changed to another older personality, so any villager could theoretically get rebranded as any personality. Examples include Julia switching from peppy to snooty and Dobie switching from lazy to cranky)
Ace, the jock bird: I feel his return is unlikely. There are already four jock birds in New Horizons. None of them are very popular and I don’t think Ace has the potential to be changed into a smug villager unless he gets a drastic redesign. And they didn’t massively redesign any of the Welcome Amiibo villagers, so I don’t think it’s likely.
Aisle, the lazy cub: Aisle only appeared in Animal Forest e+. I’d like to state that there are only three cubs not in New Horizons, and while I think Aisle is the least likely of the three to return, the cubs are one of those villagers where the philosophy seems to be “the more, the merrier”. It’s possible, but again, there are two other cubs who I think are more likely to return. However, I do think Aisle would pull off a personality change to smug.
Analogue, the jock penguin: Another Animal Forest e+ villager, Analogue is one that I am honestly torn on. He looks ridiculously similar to both Iggly and Sprinke in a lot of ways. While similarity has never stopped Nintendo before, Analogue looks a little too similar in my opinion. I don’t think Analogue will return.
Aziz, the jock lion: Previously in all of the Gamecube games, I think Aziz is the villager so far that I could most see returning. Aziz’s design lends itself well to potentially rebranding him as a lazy villager OR a smug villager. (Lazy is currently the only male personality type with only one Lion villager). I feel that it would not be surprising to see Aziz return.
Belle, the peppy cow: I’m a bit biased, because Belle is one of the villagers I most want to come back. I feel that her chances are above average. She’s objectively adorable, she’s a member of a species that currently only has 4 representatives in the game, and she has the “real life cow” look to her, which is always a positive thing IMO.
Bessie, the normal cow: I also think Bessie has a strong chance at returning. Bessie was a normal cow but I think her design would work great as a sisterly villager. There are currently no sisterly cows, the only one of the four female personality types without a cow representative. I think it’s very likely that Bessie comes back.
Betty, the normal chicken: I’m torn on Betty. On one hand, the chickens are a more unpopular species with a lot of representatives already. (You can say that species popularity shouldn’t matter, but the most popular species in the game are also some of the ones with the most villagers – cats, cubs, squirrels, etc.) However, on the other hand I find her pretty cute, but I couldn’t see her design working as a sisterly. However, I COULD see her design working as a Peppy, and there are currently no peppy chickens in New Horizons (we’ll discuss the only peppy chicken in the series later on)
Bow, the lazy dog: It’s not gonna happen. I would be absolutely SHOCKED if Bow returned to the series. He was based off of a toy exclusively released in Japan in 2002. The only way I could see Bow returning is with a massive redesign to give him a normal face, and I don’t see that happening any time soon. He won’t return, sadly.
Carmen, the snooty mouse: First of all, if Carmen was to make a return, she would obviously have to have her name changed, due to the existence of Carmen the rabbit. They could spell it Karmen (a la Tammi and Tammy) or rename her something like Cassandra, that has a similar sound. Due to the fact that her name would have to be changed, I don’t think it’s likely that she would return in the middle of the game but could see her being reintroduced with a new name (a la Hazel) for the next Animal Crossing game.
Carrot, the normal cow: Personally, I love the food themed villagers but I'm not sure about Carrot's chances. I think Bessie and/or Belle are more likely to return, but I wouldn’t count Carrot out yet. The gimmicky villagers are usually a hit with the community and are often put on merchandise. Due to that, I’d say I’m 50/50 on Carrot’s chances to return.
Champ, the jock monkey: Champ is an interesting entry. He is the only villager on this list that has appeared in any game that was released after the GameCube games. Champ was present in Wild World and City Folk only, though he did have a minor role in the movie. It’s thought that Champ was removed from New Leaf due to his resemblance to Porter. I personally think it’s VERY likely Champ will return. His model is the newest and would need the least updating, he’s a fan favorite, and Porter is not in New Horizons (nor do I see him returning).
Champagne, the cranky dog: Another Japan-exclusive villager. I personally do not see Champagne returning, for one main reason: his name. I think Champagne is really cute, but due to the fact that his name is an alcoholic beverage, I could see Nintendo not wanting to anger “concerned parents”. Similar to Carmen, I like his design, but due to his needed name change, I don’t see him being reintroduced anytime soon.
Chico, the lazy mouse: I’m not sure what to think about Chico. His design is pretty basic, so I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be reintroduced. He’s the only lazy mouse other than Broccolo and I could even see his design working well as a Smug villager. I’m 50/50 on Chico because while he’s cute and has a nice design, he’s also one of the most basic designs in this group of villagers.
Chuck, the cranky bull: I am about 89% positive that Chuck will be making a return. My main reason for this is that his data was found in the New Leaf Welcome Amiibo update, despite the fact that he didn’t appear in the game. This makes me think he was removed last minute for some reason. As a result, despite that fact that we really don’t need another cranky bull, I find it quite likely he will return.
Clara, the normal hippo: I don’t see it happening. Clara is literally Bitty. While they have both been in the same game before, I can’t see Nintendo choosing to put a villager that’s basically already in the game, back in the game, especially when there’s so many other unique options to choose from.
Cupcake, the snooty cub: Cupcake is another one I am biased on, because she was one of my first 6 ACGC villagers back in 2002 and is currently the only one of the 6 not in New Horizons. As a result, I personally really want Cupcake to make a return. Notably, she was the only snooty cub until Judy was introduced in New Horizons, which means she would add balance to the species. I think Cupcake is the second most likely cub villager to return. I think she’s more likely than Aisle, but not as likely as Poko, who I’ll discuss later.
Dozer, the lazy bear: Can we appreciate how this dude’s Japanese name is literally “Sleep”? Honestly, I think Dozer is a likely candidate for reintroduction. He is the only lazy bear, aside from Nate, he has a fun personality, and I could see him becoming a meme.
Elina, the snooty elephant: Elina is the ONLY elephant that is not currently in New Horizons. I think her design is pretty cute, but I think the fact that her design features what looks to be a bindi is going to hold her back. 2021 is a lot different than 2002 and I can absolutely see people having a problem with an Animal Crossing elephant wearing a bindi. However, the bindi is such a subtle part of her design (it could easily be removed) AND I feel that her design would work well as a sisterly villager – there are currently no sisterly elephants. I find Elina’s return likely.
Emerald, the normal frog: Emerald is a basic, cute frog. Frogs are one of the most popular villager species despite the fact that three of the five current female frogs (Jambette, Gigi, and Diva) are hated by a wide majority of the community. I also feel that Emerald’s design would work well as a Sisterly villager. I’d say I find Emerald’s return likely, but only IF they change her personality. If they don’t change her personality, I don’t see it happening, solely because of another normal frog villager we will talk about later.
Faith, the normal koala: Faith is another one I’m biased on, as she was one of my ACGC islanders. As such, I have a lot of fond memories of her. However, unfortunately, I can’t say I think her return is likely. She’s not all that different from June, and they have the same personality. I also can’t see Faith working as a Sisterly villager. I don’t find her return likely, but I REALLY hope I’m wrong.
Flash, the cranky bird: There are three cranky bird villagers on this list. However, there is only one cranky bird in the game currently – Admiral. As a result, I can see one of them making a return. I think Flash is one of the two most likely candidates to return. Then again, we might get both of them, given how unbalanced the male birds are right now (4 jocks, 1 cranky, 2 smug, 2 lazy). However, I feel that Flash’s design would work great as a Smug villager.
Flossie, the peppy mouse: Honestly, I want Flossie to come back on a personal level so we can finally have a cute peppy mouse villager. I’m not sure about her chances as I think there’s a lot of villagers on this list with stronger arguments. I’ll put her down as a 50/50 chance.
Fruity, the jock duck: My instinct tells me that Fruity won’t likely return. However, there are only two ducks on this list, and I personally think Fruity is much more likely to return than the other one.
Gen, the jock sheep: Again, Gen runs into the issue that a few other villagers have had. There are only two sheep villagers missing from New Horizons at the moment, but they’re both jock villagers. Not to mention that Dom, the brand jock villager in New Horizons, is a sheep. I feel like Gen could maybe work as a smug villager, but I think the other jock sheep that will pop up later has a much better chance.
So to sum up, of this batch of villagers, my opinions on their likely return (if the scenario is that there are only 25 villagers returning) are:
Almost certain: Chuck, Champ, Dozer
Very likely: Aziz, Bessie
Could go either way: Belle, Carmen, Carrot, Chico, Cupcake, Emerald, Faith, Flash, Flossie, Fruity, Gen, Elina
Not Likely: Aisle, Ace, Analogue, Betty, Clara
Not happening: Bow, Champagne
Do you guys agree with any of these? Disagree? Which of these villagers do you most want to return?
A few things I looked at when considering the likelihood of the return of each villager: species and personality combo when compared to the rest of their species, looks, connections to other villagers, presence in previous Western games, and how Japan-centered they are (for ones who were never in any game outside of Japan). However, obviously this should all be taken with a grain of salt, because Nintendo will bring back who they want to bring back, but I still thought it was fun to speculate.
One thing I found interesting is that of the 73 non-collab villagers that are not in New Horizons, 21 are jocks, 10 are lazy, 8 are cranky, 11 are peppy, 10 are normal, and 13 are snooty. So jocks are by far the personality with the most missing villagers. However, it should be noted that any male villager could potentially have their personality changed to smug and any female villager could have their personality changed to sisterly. I noted which villagers I thought would make the most sense as one of those personalities. (Note that some Welcome Amiibo villagers had their personalities changed to another older personality, so any villager could theoretically get rebranded as any personality. Examples include Julia switching from peppy to snooty and Dobie switching from lazy to cranky)
Ace, the jock bird: I feel his return is unlikely. There are already four jock birds in New Horizons. None of them are very popular and I don’t think Ace has the potential to be changed into a smug villager unless he gets a drastic redesign. And they didn’t massively redesign any of the Welcome Amiibo villagers, so I don’t think it’s likely.
Aisle, the lazy cub: Aisle only appeared in Animal Forest e+. I’d like to state that there are only three cubs not in New Horizons, and while I think Aisle is the least likely of the three to return, the cubs are one of those villagers where the philosophy seems to be “the more, the merrier”. It’s possible, but again, there are two other cubs who I think are more likely to return. However, I do think Aisle would pull off a personality change to smug.
Analogue, the jock penguin: Another Animal Forest e+ villager, Analogue is one that I am honestly torn on. He looks ridiculously similar to both Iggly and Sprinke in a lot of ways. While similarity has never stopped Nintendo before, Analogue looks a little too similar in my opinion. I don’t think Analogue will return.
Aziz, the jock lion: Previously in all of the Gamecube games, I think Aziz is the villager so far that I could most see returning. Aziz’s design lends itself well to potentially rebranding him as a lazy villager OR a smug villager. (Lazy is currently the only male personality type with only one Lion villager). I feel that it would not be surprising to see Aziz return.
Belle, the peppy cow: I’m a bit biased, because Belle is one of the villagers I most want to come back. I feel that her chances are above average. She’s objectively adorable, she’s a member of a species that currently only has 4 representatives in the game, and she has the “real life cow” look to her, which is always a positive thing IMO.
Bessie, the normal cow: I also think Bessie has a strong chance at returning. Bessie was a normal cow but I think her design would work great as a sisterly villager. There are currently no sisterly cows, the only one of the four female personality types without a cow representative. I think it’s very likely that Bessie comes back.
Betty, the normal chicken: I’m torn on Betty. On one hand, the chickens are a more unpopular species with a lot of representatives already. (You can say that species popularity shouldn’t matter, but the most popular species in the game are also some of the ones with the most villagers – cats, cubs, squirrels, etc.) However, on the other hand I find her pretty cute, but I couldn’t see her design working as a sisterly. However, I COULD see her design working as a Peppy, and there are currently no peppy chickens in New Horizons (we’ll discuss the only peppy chicken in the series later on)
Bow, the lazy dog: It’s not gonna happen. I would be absolutely SHOCKED if Bow returned to the series. He was based off of a toy exclusively released in Japan in 2002. The only way I could see Bow returning is with a massive redesign to give him a normal face, and I don’t see that happening any time soon. He won’t return, sadly.
Carmen, the snooty mouse: First of all, if Carmen was to make a return, she would obviously have to have her name changed, due to the existence of Carmen the rabbit. They could spell it Karmen (a la Tammi and Tammy) or rename her something like Cassandra, that has a similar sound. Due to the fact that her name would have to be changed, I don’t think it’s likely that she would return in the middle of the game but could see her being reintroduced with a new name (a la Hazel) for the next Animal Crossing game.
Carrot, the normal cow: Personally, I love the food themed villagers but I'm not sure about Carrot's chances. I think Bessie and/or Belle are more likely to return, but I wouldn’t count Carrot out yet. The gimmicky villagers are usually a hit with the community and are often put on merchandise. Due to that, I’d say I’m 50/50 on Carrot’s chances to return.
Champ, the jock monkey: Champ is an interesting entry. He is the only villager on this list that has appeared in any game that was released after the GameCube games. Champ was present in Wild World and City Folk only, though he did have a minor role in the movie. It’s thought that Champ was removed from New Leaf due to his resemblance to Porter. I personally think it’s VERY likely Champ will return. His model is the newest and would need the least updating, he’s a fan favorite, and Porter is not in New Horizons (nor do I see him returning).
Champagne, the cranky dog: Another Japan-exclusive villager. I personally do not see Champagne returning, for one main reason: his name. I think Champagne is really cute, but due to the fact that his name is an alcoholic beverage, I could see Nintendo not wanting to anger “concerned parents”. Similar to Carmen, I like his design, but due to his needed name change, I don’t see him being reintroduced anytime soon.
Chico, the lazy mouse: I’m not sure what to think about Chico. His design is pretty basic, so I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be reintroduced. He’s the only lazy mouse other than Broccolo and I could even see his design working well as a Smug villager. I’m 50/50 on Chico because while he’s cute and has a nice design, he’s also one of the most basic designs in this group of villagers.
Chuck, the cranky bull: I am about 89% positive that Chuck will be making a return. My main reason for this is that his data was found in the New Leaf Welcome Amiibo update, despite the fact that he didn’t appear in the game. This makes me think he was removed last minute for some reason. As a result, despite that fact that we really don’t need another cranky bull, I find it quite likely he will return.
Clara, the normal hippo: I don’t see it happening. Clara is literally Bitty. While they have both been in the same game before, I can’t see Nintendo choosing to put a villager that’s basically already in the game, back in the game, especially when there’s so many other unique options to choose from.
Cupcake, the snooty cub: Cupcake is another one I am biased on, because she was one of my first 6 ACGC villagers back in 2002 and is currently the only one of the 6 not in New Horizons. As a result, I personally really want Cupcake to make a return. Notably, she was the only snooty cub until Judy was introduced in New Horizons, which means she would add balance to the species. I think Cupcake is the second most likely cub villager to return. I think she’s more likely than Aisle, but not as likely as Poko, who I’ll discuss later.
Dozer, the lazy bear: Can we appreciate how this dude’s Japanese name is literally “Sleep”? Honestly, I think Dozer is a likely candidate for reintroduction. He is the only lazy bear, aside from Nate, he has a fun personality, and I could see him becoming a meme.
Elina, the snooty elephant: Elina is the ONLY elephant that is not currently in New Horizons. I think her design is pretty cute, but I think the fact that her design features what looks to be a bindi is going to hold her back. 2021 is a lot different than 2002 and I can absolutely see people having a problem with an Animal Crossing elephant wearing a bindi. However, the bindi is such a subtle part of her design (it could easily be removed) AND I feel that her design would work well as a sisterly villager – there are currently no sisterly elephants. I find Elina’s return likely.
Emerald, the normal frog: Emerald is a basic, cute frog. Frogs are one of the most popular villager species despite the fact that three of the five current female frogs (Jambette, Gigi, and Diva) are hated by a wide majority of the community. I also feel that Emerald’s design would work well as a Sisterly villager. I’d say I find Emerald’s return likely, but only IF they change her personality. If they don’t change her personality, I don’t see it happening, solely because of another normal frog villager we will talk about later.
Faith, the normal koala: Faith is another one I’m biased on, as she was one of my ACGC islanders. As such, I have a lot of fond memories of her. However, unfortunately, I can’t say I think her return is likely. She’s not all that different from June, and they have the same personality. I also can’t see Faith working as a Sisterly villager. I don’t find her return likely, but I REALLY hope I’m wrong.
Flash, the cranky bird: There are three cranky bird villagers on this list. However, there is only one cranky bird in the game currently – Admiral. As a result, I can see one of them making a return. I think Flash is one of the two most likely candidates to return. Then again, we might get both of them, given how unbalanced the male birds are right now (4 jocks, 1 cranky, 2 smug, 2 lazy). However, I feel that Flash’s design would work great as a Smug villager.
Flossie, the peppy mouse: Honestly, I want Flossie to come back on a personal level so we can finally have a cute peppy mouse villager. I’m not sure about her chances as I think there’s a lot of villagers on this list with stronger arguments. I’ll put her down as a 50/50 chance.
Fruity, the jock duck: My instinct tells me that Fruity won’t likely return. However, there are only two ducks on this list, and I personally think Fruity is much more likely to return than the other one.
Gen, the jock sheep: Again, Gen runs into the issue that a few other villagers have had. There are only two sheep villagers missing from New Horizons at the moment, but they’re both jock villagers. Not to mention that Dom, the brand jock villager in New Horizons, is a sheep. I feel like Gen could maybe work as a smug villager, but I think the other jock sheep that will pop up later has a much better chance.
So to sum up, of this batch of villagers, my opinions on their likely return (if the scenario is that there are only 25 villagers returning) are:
Almost certain: Chuck, Champ, Dozer
Very likely: Aziz, Bessie
Could go either way: Belle, Carmen, Carrot, Chico, Cupcake, Emerald, Faith, Flash, Flossie, Fruity, Gen, Elina
Not Likely: Aisle, Ace, Analogue, Betty, Clara
Not happening: Bow, Champagne
Do you guys agree with any of these? Disagree? Which of these villagers do you most want to return?
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i do want bow to come back but its not possible AT ALL. i want tarou, but he looks like either lobo or wolfgang so maybe i will go take analogue and make a mini family of sprinkle and iggly 
Mark my words he'll be in there!
I think his original name was Pironkon? Such a cute alligator
