Mafia TBT Mafia XV: The Siren's Call (Game Over/Mafia & Third Party Win!)

[Trent the Paladin]

Day 2 Action Plan

Dad's Death:
This, to me, was almost as confusing as oath's death N1. Dad pretty much claimed in the thread that he was a townie:



Maybe they thought Dad was blue claiming townie OR maybe they believe blue roles are not a huge threat, otherwise they surely would have killed someone like Ryan88 by now (which I will get to later). Something about Dad must have made them kill him. But why?

Possibility 1:
Dad was right on track with all his suspicions and due to this they found him a threat. Here is the last part of his long post:



Notice the the last part where he includes Dolby as a minor suspicion and later this escalates into a major suspicion that he voted for Dolby yesterday before switching to Crystal. This is where my suspicion on Dolby comes in.

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Possibility 2:
Due to the large amount of people Dad called out, mafia killed him to cast suspicion on many people. Perhaps he was wrong with all his suspicions.





Notice how he keeps asserting that Cariad is probably town. This is where my other suspicion on Cariad comes in.

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Main Suspects:

Dolby
Summary: He was called out by several users Day 2 including Karla and Jer (several others but slightly on a time crunch now to go back and look).

I started feeling something weird about him when he jumped at the opportunity for the vig to shoot one of the thieves: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3736522&viewfull=1#post3736522

Karla's plan made sense and I get that most people would agree to it. But so quickly after the post? I doubt he had enough time to actually think about it, the consequences and the benefits of it. He probably read "VIG KILL THIEF" and naturally, as scum, agreed to it straight away.

Karla also bought up some good points before: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3733118#post3733118

If we lynch Dolby and he flips red it probably means that Dad was on the right track with his suspicions.

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Cariad
Summary: Called out several times by many different people. Nearly got lynched Day 2.

IMO we should have lynched Cariad instead of Crystal yesterday. At least Crystal posted and tried to contribute. Cariad has just been throwing out excuse after excuse for not posting. She also claimed blue. So why hasn't mafia killed her yet? She did this weird copy-quote-replies-in-bold thing so I have to just put links:

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3725743#post3725743
http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3735352#post3735352

If we kill Cariad and she flips red it probably means that Dad was not right about his suspicions, and we could conclude mafia killed him to frame different people.

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I think by killing either one of them we can find out why mafia killed Dad.

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Quick Minor Suspicions:
Ryan88: why isn't he dead yet if he's blue?
JellofishXD: where are you?

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Tomorrow, I have school again so probably back to not so long posts. I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for. I have a gut feeling Cariad might be the better choice because Dolby is good if he's a blue role and dangerous when he's scum (so high risk for us and honestly we're not in a good situation right now, we need all the good town players), but there's some evidence stacked up against him so I'm not too sure. I might have to check past games when I have time to make my decision.

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I see you guys viewing the thread...thoughts anyone?

I also did name the urls but for some reason it didn't work.

I don't get why you find Dad's death confusing, he was primarily the largest contributing town player. Silence the vocal before they shine too much of a spotlight on you and convince others to lynch scum. You don't need to kill off the blues to win, you just need to effectively know how to control them. Ryan88 isn't a problem, so that just leaves finding the last few blues and then systematically blocking those that are a threat.

While Dad typically has a decent head on him, I don't entirely trust he was headed completely in the right direction with some of those names. While it's likely a few names there are possible mafia, he has been completely wrong before about scum in previous games (Cell Mafia).

Preferably I'd much rather wait and see what Cariad has to say, but I don't feel comfortable defaulting back to another D1. We tried that and we lost, we need to focus on finding the strong mafia players and take them out. The weaker ones will begin to crack without help or backup. As for Ryan not being dead yet, he's still viewed suspicious.

Ryan who did you block last night anyways?

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Also this is basically what I meant in this post I just suck at this game so thanks Tom.

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Sorry the other Jeremy is supposed to be Sataric.

Speaking of Sataric, would you like to reveal what the Kallie business is Sataric? Because I'm very much willing to risk my thoughts on the matter now unless you come out about it.

 

[Ashtot]

I don't understand what our roleblocker is supposed to be blocking if the Mafia only get 1 KP each night. Like what the heck would we need to block?

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I don't understand what our roleblocker is supposed to be blocking if the Mafia only get 1 KP each night. Like what the heck would we need to block?

Also Tom I just posted.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

I don't understand what our roleblocker is supposed to be blocking if the Mafia only get 1 KP each night. Like what the heck would we need to block?

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Also Tom I just posted.

If mafia only has 1 KP, then it's safe to assume that if they can't block the kills they're blocking Mafia power roles. Someone brought up the potential of a Mafia Cop, Mafia Doc has been kind of popular, typical roleblocker but they're immune, maybe a tracker? Or a potential arsonist role.

 

[Ashtot]

If mafia only has 1 KP, then it's safe to assume that if they can't block the kills they're blocking Mafia power roles. Someone brought up the potential of a Mafia Cop, Mafia Doc has been kind of popular, typical roleblocker but they're immune, maybe a tracker? Or a potential arsonist role.

I posted on the previous page.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

I posted on the previous page.

I'm aware, give me a few jeez.

 

[Pathetic]

Yeah well I made a longish post and everyone's ignoring it, probably happened to other people too which is why people are no longer interested in contributing. It's just the same people talking to each other and making most of the decisions.

Putting in my vote for Dolby until the vig speaks up if there is one.

me

Hey, what DOES Cariad's role do anyway? Also, Karen brought up a good point.

Why aren't blues dying? I'd expect more to die. Maybe because some people were sus of Ryan / Cariad?
{ew i just realized how scummy that sounds ^}

 

[Ashtot]

me

Hey, what DOES Cariad's role do anyway? Also, Karen brought up a good point.

Why aren't blues dying? I'd expect more to die. Maybe because some people were sus of Ryan / Cariad?
{ew i just realized how scummy that sounds ^}

You seem like you're attempting to seem less scummy by accidentally seeming scummy and I honestly find that extremely scummy.

 

[Trundle]

If there is a vigilante, thanks for not shooting my comrades. We found 2 diamonds last night, one from Crystal (who I stole from) and Natty got one from Jeremy. As I've mentioned before, I'm pretty sure it's completely random who has diamonds.

I'm not sure how mafia has changed since I took the break but one thing I did go by beforehand was that if Minties was not getting mad and being aggressive towards other users, she is definitely scum. It held true in each game and I know she hasn't had as much time as previous games, but she should definitely be put up as a lynch candidate for today.
Meanwhile, I still want Cariad lynched. What does your role do, Cariad?

 

[Pathetic]

You seem like you're attempting to seem less scummy by accidentally seeming scummy and I honestly find that extremely scummy.

what

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Also, to the thieves, you can steal from dead players?

 

[Trent the Paladin]

what

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Also, to the thieves, you can steal from dead players?

They've answered this before, yes.

 

[Ashtot]

I think we should lynch alise, Minties, Yui-Z, or Cariad.

 

[KermitTea]

I think we should lynch alise, Minties, Yui-Z, or Cariad.

or Jello who has done absolutely nothing so far? Dolby's still on my list until vig speaks up.

 

[Ashtot]

or Jello who has done absolutely nothing so far? Dolby's still on my list until vig speaks up.

We could lynch Jello but I'd rather lynch one of these four because they are coming off as scummy to me. Jello wouldn't be a bad choice though.

 

[ryan88]

i didn't get killed

i blocked tom btw

 

[Pathetic]

i didn't get killed

i blocked tom btw

again??

 

[KermitTea]

We could lynch Jello but I'd rather lynch one of these four because they are coming off as scummy to me. Jello wouldn't be a bad choice though.

Tbh I remember playing with alise in a mini mafia game (i'm a cop you idiot i think it was called), she was mafia, it was also a no-pm game but she was acting a lot differently than she is now. Maybe that game was a lot smaller, her play style changed or her computer has problems or something but she's always sort of clueless like she is from what I remember (no offense) so I'm thinking that she's town right now.

Yui Z I don't remember much, I think the only time I played with her was her first game, but she has been slipping under the radar like has Dad said.

Minties everyone is concerned about right now, I don't know if she's busy or something but I do remember her raging like every game I've played with her. I can't remember if she was mafia or town so I'll look back into that.

And Cariad, well I have stated before why I want to lynch her... in a way she's sort of like Jello I guess? Not contributing anything and just sliding by. Actually I just realized a lot of us have been picking a lot more on Cariad and there has been less attention on Jello the past day. I wonder if that's why Jello is not speaking up, because she totally managed to slip by yesterday.

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i didn't get killed

i blocked tom btw

I thought power roles can't perform an action on the same person two days in a row.

 

[ryan88]

Tbh I remember playing with alise in a mini mafia game (i'm a cop you idiot i think it was called), she was mafia, it was also a no-pm game but she was acting a lot differently than she is now. Maybe that game was a lot smaller, her play style changed or her computer has problems or something but she's always sort of clueless like she is from what I remember (no offense) so I'm thinking that she's town right now.

Yui Z I don't remember much, I think the only time I played with her was her first game, but she has been slipping under the radar like has Dad said.

Minties everyone is concerned about right now, I don't know if she's busy or something but I do remember her raging like every game I've played with her. I can't remember if she was mafia or town so I'll look back into that.

And Cariad, well I have stated before why I want to lynch her... in a way she's sort of like Jello I guess? Not contributing anything and just sliding by. Actually I just realized a lot of us have been picking a lot more on Cariad and there has been less attention on Jello the past day. I wonder if that's why Jello is not speaking up, because she totally managed to slip by yesterday.

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I thought power roles can't perform an action on the same person two days in a row.

what. i thought i did

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NVM i checked and i blocked Cariad

 

[KermitTea]

what. i thought i did

Well maybe this game is different that way. Who knows. First the thieves, mafia 1kp and power roles able to block the same person two days in a row

 

[ryan88]

Well maybe this game is different that way. Who knows. First the thieves, mafia 1kp and power roles able to block the same person two days in a row

no i checked and blocked Cariad. i can't block the same person 2 nights in a row

 

[KermitTea]

no i checked and blocked Cariad. i can't block the same person 2 nights in a row

Why did you choose Cariad? And also, I don't know why you're announcing to the world what you're doing every night. Unless something odd happens (eg. no kills that night), you really shouldn't tell us what you have done unless someone prompts you to and there's a good reason for it. I don't know if you're telling the truth or acting brash on purpose to make it seem no scum mates are feeding you "what to say".