So I’ve got 80 NMTs. How good are my odds of actually finding Raymond or Judy?

[Baroque]

Managed to get an empty spot on my island, which is great, and I’ve got 80 NMTs accumulated. I wanna keep that final spot for one of the new villagers and I really like either Judy or Raymond but I know Raymond sells for waaaaay more than just 80 NMTs.

So, basically, should I either spend my 80 NMTs to go to Mystery Tours for a chance to run into Raymond or Judy or just wait for Judy to be sold right here on the forum and try to buy her out...? Or is there a way to efficiently ‘farm’ villagers using Mystery Tours? Any pointers might be cool

 

[Lavulin98]

ive spent over 200 tickets island hoping since the begging of the game. Havent seen ANY new NH villager on an island like Raymond or Judy. But I've met all of them almost except the last 2 thru campsite. so do the campsite, not island hoping. 80 nmt is nothing when looking for a specific villager and its painful! But if you don't have any expectations while island hoping and just looking for something that looks cool, you will find the experience enjoyable! good luck!

 

[Mikaiah]

depends on how godly unlucky you are.

I got judy in like 2 NMT and raymond in like 8. went looking for sherb both times and ended up just buying him from someone.

 

[Baroque]

ive spent over 200 tickets island hoping since the begging of the game. Havent seen ANY new NH villager on an island like Raymond or Judy. But I've met all of them almost except the last 2 thru campsite. so do the campsite, not island hoping. 80 nmt is nothing when looking for a specific villager and its painful! But if you don't have any expectations while island hoping and just looking for something that looks cool, you will find the experience enjoyable! good luck!

Oh dang, over 200 tickets without ever encountering even One of the new villagers? XD That sounds bad...

I guess I could just wait and keep accumulating NMTs until I can get Judy. Raymond is probably impossible to get unless I get lucky ^^’

 

[edsett]

It took me around 400 tickets (counting all the tickets I’ve spent in general) to find Raymond and I wasn’t even looking for him. It only took me about 80-90 to find Judy randomly so it’s all about luck.

 

[Baroque]

depends on how godly unlucky you are.

I got judy in like 2 NMT and raymond in like 8. went looking for sherb both times and ended up just buying him from someone.

Damn, that’s pretty lucky indeed XD You, uhh, wouldn’t be interested in selling me that Judy for 80 NMTs, would you? XD

 

[victoriae350]

You could try the campsite method. But you'd have to okay with time travelling, and you'd have to have one of every personality type in your village EXCEPT smug for Raymond) and whatever personality type Judy is. And be okay with making villagers leave/temporarily welcoming villagers to meet the need.

 

[Baroque]

You could try the campsite method. But you'd have to okay with time travelling, and you'd have to have one of every personality type in your village EXCEPT smug for Raymond) and whatever personality type Judy is. And be okay with making villagers leave/temporarily welcoming villagers to meet the need.

Not against time traveling, I guess, but what’s the campsite method? Is there a guide about that somewhere? :O

 

[Mikaiah]

Not against time traveling, I guess, but what’s the campsite method? Is there a guide about that somewhere? :O

campsite method details

the tldr is that you TT and roll campers since camper spawns are weighted by personality

xedit: and I might be able to sell you judy, but i feel a teensy bit burned out cycling rn since I just did ~3 villagers >_<

 

[victoriae350]

You can find a guide HERE!

 

[Dewasa]

I've spent slightly north over 100 split between 2 sittings (Sat and Sun) both morning and night time (To see if there's any difference) and did not encounter Raymond or Judy once. I actually didn't see any of the new villagers until Sherb, who I ended up inviting to my village. He was my 2nd target, right behind Raymond.

 

[Lio]

Having spent a looot of tickets on island hopping to get Raymond, I would recommend the campsite method.

 

[Selky]

Odds are odds. RNG is RNG. You may get them in 1 ticket, 20 tickets, 600 tickets...

Good luck though!

 

[Blueskyy]

You could get lucky. Odds are as good for getting either of them as they are for getting any other villager. That being said don’t count on it.

 

[Clock]

It's random, but there may be a low or high chance encountering either both.
Good luck!

 

[Soigne]

totally random. judy was on like my fourth island once because i was just looking for tarantula island.

 

[Pickler]

Roughly 33.5%.

I used the formula 1−(391÷393)^80 = 0.335

My reasoning is that there are 393 villagers. You want either Raymond or Judy, so there are 391 villagers you don't want. The odds of failing are 391/393 per ticket, or 99.49%. The odds of failing 80 times in a row is (391/393)^80, which is about 66.5%. If you fail 66.5% of the time, you succeed 33.5%.

This goes under the assumption that every villager has an equal chance of showing up. In reality, it's probably worse. Some guy on here said the species have equal distribution, but the villagers don't. So you have an equal chance of getting a lion, a cub, a cat, an eagle, etc. Once the game chooses one of the 35 species, it randomly picks a villager of that species. For cats, there are 25 possible cats to choose from. That means Raymond is actually harder to find than other villagers like, say, a specific koala because there are fewer koalas in the pool.

If that's how it works, your odds are actually 19.6%, using the formula 1−(1−(1÷35÷25)−(1÷35÷18))^80 = 0.196

 

[Loriii]

I would probably just use the campsite method. 80 tickets still seems a little small, unless you're looking for any of the octopus villagers, but it's up to you.

 

[Ayarii]

yeah it's totally random you can get super lucky and find them in a few tickets or be super unlucky and spend hundreds of tickets i wish you luck on finding them though

 

[issh0mans]

it's entirely rng based, there's not really a way to figure out the odds of how likely it'll be you find who you're looking for. :< i was searching for coco and got judy after 12 nook tickets. ​