So I’ve got 80 NMTs. How good are my odds of actually finding Raymond or Judy?

[Pickler]

it's entirely rng based, there's not really a way to figure out the odds of how likely it'll be you find who you're looking for. :< i was searching for coco and got judy after 12 nook tickets. ​

Not to split hairs but I actually posted a formula to figure out odds. It's thoroughly player tested with data.

 

[Spunki]

Pure luck. 4 Tickets and Zucker and 35 Tickets and Marshal here. The Rest was not that Great. Some decent ones, but no really rare Villagers.

 

[DJStarstryker]

Yep, luck. Like others said. You could spend 1 and find Raymond right away. Or you could spend 1000 and not see him once.

 

[Jared:3]

Its so random because I found Raymond after only 3 NMT (BTW this just happened like 15 minutes ago) I wasn't searching for him but I kinda laughed because I was saying to myself I would never want Raymond but I gave in LOL!

 

[Khte]

I'm going to give you a very bad answer and say- do whatever you feel is best.

I had over 400 NMT saved and got only ONE villager I wanted- Lucky. In the end, I saved up and bought the rest of my villagers. Now, my villagers aren't as pricy as Raymond or Judy, but in the end, I knew I should have just bought them. There is no guarantee with the NMT and I'm not a gambler so I would say just wait and buy them. You could get lucky and get them in your first couple, or less lucky and get them in your first hundred, or just not get them at all. It all depends on how lucky you're feeling.

 

[ctar17]

If you want the exact odds:

On any given roll (assuming you currently have no cats nor cubs in your town):
The chance for Raymond is (1/35)*(1/23)=1/805=0.12%
The chance for Judy is (1/35)*(1/16)=1/560=0.18%

I would recommend using the campsite method lol, much much better odds.

 

[Santana]

I found Judy on my tenth island. There is always hope, but honestly the campsite method is much better

 

[marea]

The campsite trick is the better way to get Raymondo, or island hopping. He often goes for hundreds of tickets and that might take a while to achieve, for me at least. You would not even have to worry about having an empty plot if you use the campsite method because he can still move in.

 

[corlee1289]

I also got Raymond within 5 NMT when I first started playing

 

[ShimSham]

i just want one of the new villagers T_T

 

[Dewasa]

i just want one of the new villagers T_T

My wife's luck is crazy. She started with Reneigh. Her first camper was Megan. The random villager that Nook sold the plot to was Judy. She island hopped 5 times and got Cyd.

Megan left and I adopted her from the void when Nook sold my plot. I've since given her away to a friend that really wanted her. I island hopped around 100 times in a span of 2 days just to find one of the new villager.