Resetting at the start?

[moonbell]

Thank you so much! Thanks also for the spreadsheet to play around with. Most appreciated!

 

[TheRealWC]

I've said this before, but I have already decided I will not recent for ANYTHING in this game and I'm rolling with the punches. While I may have preferences (specifically with the airport color since I'm hoping for yellow/orange/red), I don't really have a preference with a lot of things. For example, I had apples as my town fruit in New Leaf (which are my favorite), but any other fruit would mean something new and unique.

I think going into a situation that's not perfect and fixing it up is more fun for me personally that having all the presets I want at the beginning. Trees can be planted, villagers can be cycled, and terrain can be changed.

 

[FreliaCrossing]

It will probably be a Google spreadsheets where you just put your numbers in and it calculates it. I think I'll start on that now... Yeah it wasn't that hard to calculate the probabilities this time around, just lots of multiplying. I didn't explain all of the steps, but would be happy to provide the full proof if you want to take a look lol

My version of it was P(good/keep island) = P(good fruit) * (1 - P(bad jock villager)*P(bad uchi villager))! And then just chained with more P(goods) lol

 

[ctar17]

My version of it was P(good/keep island) = P(good fruit) * (1 - P(bad jock villager)*P(bad uchi villager))! And then just chained with more P(goods) lol

Yeah that's what I did basically, but I did (total jocks-bad jock)/(total jocks) to get P(good jocks) and same for uchi then just multiplied those two together with P(good fruit)

The good news is, I did take into account the WA update villagers and took 3 villagers off my "dislike list". I also thought there'd be about a 25% chance to keep pears (if I love the villagers I start out with). I calculated my probability to be around 46% now to get an island I won't reset. Better odds, almost at 50/50, so I'm not mad.

 

[Imaginetheday]

Unless I get absolutely terrible map choices, I won't reset.

 

[FaerieRose]

I don't care too much about fruit, but I want a teal or yellow airport and villagers that I like. Getting a good uchi villager is going to be the hardest part.

 

[ctar17]

I don't care too much about fruit, but I want a teal or yellow airport and villagers that I like. Getting a good uchi villager is going to be the hardest part.

Yeah the probabilities go massively down when you want to seek out specific villagers to start out with rather than specific villagers to avoid...

The good news is, at least you're not seeking out a specific Jock as there's over 80 Jocks (in NL after WA update) and only 26 Uchis (in NL after WA, including new Reneigh)!

 

[PeeBraiin]

I?m hoping for cherries but I don?t think I have the energy to reset for long periods of time

 

[FaerieRose]

The good news is, at least you're not seeking out a specific Jock as there's over 80 Jocks (in NL after WA update) and only 26 Uchis (in NL after WA, including new Reneigh)!

I like about half the uchis, so it shouldn't be too bad.

 

[DJStarstryker]

We're all bored waiting for NH, so we're all overthinking and overanalyzing things. Don't worry about it.

You seem like you don't mind most things, so you shouldn't have to reset very many times. It won't be too bad. I've seen some people claim they're going to try to reset for a certain uchi or jock. That could take a while, especially if you add in wanting a certain fruit.

 

[moon_child]

I obsessively reset at the start of my New Leaf town because I looked for a specific map and fruit that will suit my town name. This time, I?m hoping I don?t have to do the same since we have more freedom in terms of terraforming and placing down the villager houses where we want. Seems like a small detail but I?m so happy we now get to name our island after seeing it rather than before because that bugged me a lot in New Leaf. It used to be a bummer naming a town Appleton and ending up with a town which had pears as native fruit. That was automatically a reset then. Now we don?t have to worry about any of that.

 

[Carson]

I'm trying to mentally establish a list of all (within reason) possible variables one could possibly get to begin with so I can check and make sure I'm not forgetting about anything I do or don't want to reset for in order to guarantee. Please help and correct me if I'm forgetting anything, just figured maybe it'd be helpful to have this written down somewhere!

1. Island Layout:

- Variables include terraforming layouts, ponds/river deposits, peninsulas/docks, and Resident Services/Dodo Airlines location and color.​

2. Grass Design:

- Variables include Square, Circle, and Triangular.​

3. Fruit Species:

- Variables include Apples, Pears, Peaches, Oranges, and Cherries.​

4. Villager Species:

- Variables include 1 Jock Villager and 1 Uchi Villager.​

Any other major factors? Trying to grasp everything to make sure I know what I do and do not want to reset for next week. Please quote me and help fix/add anything I'm missing!

 

[Jhine7]

I'll only be resetting for Nook Services' placement.

 

[Dharma]

I have a feeling that resets might not be necessary this time around. There was lots of QOL improvements so it would make sense to me for this to be one of them.

 

[ctar17]

Seems like everyone has their own feelings for this topic, which is good!

Now I am wondering about how easy or hard it will be to reset the island after seeing fruit/starting villagers... Hopefully I dont have to delete save data each time due to the new autosave feature

I don't remember it being that difficult in NL (I just reset until I got cherries)

 

[jiojiop]

Great topic!

So for the math it's basically probability of A & B happening together (aka. everything goes right) is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each together. So P(A&B) = P(A) * P(B).

So if you want good fruit & good villagers & good color theme & etc., you just multiply the probabilities of each together. Simple as that! And that gives you the probability that you won't need to reset. Then (1 - answer) = the probability that you will need to reset.

If you want specific villager(s), you just adjust accordingly. For example, if I desperately want Phoebe & Roald together, (1/total uchis) * (1/total jocks) is the chance to get them together. If I just want Muffy really bad and I don't care what jock I get as long as I get her, then it's just (1/total uchis). And then you multiply it with the probabilities of everything else you want.

One thing though, I don't understand your total uchis and jocks? By my count, there are 24 known uchis and 54 confirmed jocks with 2 more that are likely to be in the game, for total of 56. I don't think Sanrio cards work with the game.

My version of it was P(good/keep island) = P(good fruit) * (1 - P(bad jock villager)*P(bad uchi villager))! And then just chained with more P(goods) lol

Hmm unless I'm misunderstanding you I don't think that works. (1 - P(bad jock villager)*P(bad uchi villager)) gives you the probability that you won't have two terrible villagers together. Yet people will still reset if they have 1 terrible villager they hate and 1 good one (e.g. bad jock + good uchi).

 

[Matt0106]

Right now, I'm thinking of resetting for fruit. When I first got New Leaf, I got cherries (and one of my favourite Youtubers, iJustine, also had cherries), so ever since then, when I would restart, I would feel like something was missing because I didn't have cherries and I wouldn't be able to get perfect cherries

As for Villagers, I'm not sure. If I get two villagers where I'm just like "YIKES, WHO LET YOU IN?" then yeah I might.

Otherwise, the actual terrain itself is not as big of a concern, since we get to choose where exactly we want to have the buildings and there's terraforming, so may as well put the fear to good use

 

[Hsn97]

I?m not gonna reset at all. I?m gonna go with what I get and roll with it. I want my NH town to get back to the root of AC. When everything was simpler and there wasn?t that strain and stress of everything having to be perfect. So what if I get a fruit or villager I?m not thrilled with. I can make it work.

 

[O w O]

I think I'll only reset if I don't get any decent map choices. Me and my boyfriend are going to start the island together so we're going to pick a map that we both like and agree on. He doesn't care which villagers start or what the fruit is but for my last 2 towns I've had pears so I want to step off the pear train this time.

 

[Fey]

but for my last 2 towns I've had pears so I want to step off the pear train this time.

100% can recommend doing this. Step off the pear train. In fact, get on another train that goes the opposite direction ;ェ;