FraudulentDimetrodon
Mae govannen!
3. I wonder if the chance for repeats has always been not 0% but something like 10%, similar to the way the smug villager as the first camper is not quite guaranteed.
The Smug villager thing is almost certainly a bug because all the text for that encounter is unique. The camper only has one set of dialogue that specifically fits the Smug personality. And in the English version, the initial dialogue from Nook/Isabelle uses they/them to refer to the camper which always switches to he/him once you meet the camper, even if the bug gives a female camper. Here's a post with pictures that show the encounter.
With that said, the campsite mechanics have been thoroughly theorized and somewhat (entirely?) datamined. Essentially, supposing that the camper is a "missing personality" camper, you will "encounter" all villagers of that personality in your campsite one time through with no repeats. Once you exhaust all villagers in that group, you will get repeats without any exclusion clause until the end of time. For example, if you encounter all Smug villagers, after that, you could see Raymond three times in a row. The first cycle is the only guaranteed one with the exclusion clause; there's no "cycle" after that anymore, it's just pure RNG. Barring any mistakes, we should know how the campsite works.
But with all of that said, uh, yeah, no one should be jumping on this for so many reasons. I haven't heard any news relating to this from people who follow datamining stuff, and assuming that people aren't just lying, anyone who is experiencing repeats could be experiencing the mechanic where villagers in your move-in queue are excluded from the campsite.
It has always worked that way. If you’re missing a personality, iirc a camper has a 60% chance of having that personality. It was never fully guaranteed that you’d only get uchi villagers for example.
Yep, this is correct. I linked the document above that has the campsite mechanics. Essentially, you get a coin flip whether or not you get a missing personality. If you "fail" that roll, you can now have a camper of any personality, which still includes your missing personalities, so it's still higher than 50% that you'll actually see a villager of a missing personality.
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