Strict line up vs nook mile tickets, oh numbers

[Your Local Wild Child]

that cant be right if it's roll for species first. because i'm on my 4th villager and i just spent 120nmts. If that the case likelihood is that i would hit a deer 3or 4 times?

Statistics are a pain in the rear. That’s the case if you’re in the center of the bell curve. It’s not a guarantee.

 

[Hobowire]

It’s confirmed by datamining that species are rolled first. 2.85% is still a low chance.

1/35 nmts? but its not adding up.

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2020

Statistics are a pain in the rear. That’s the case if you’re in the center of the bell curve. It’s not a guarantee.

but 80+ ticket over?

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

1/35 nmts? but its not adding up.

I think you’re looking at this wrong: you’re not guaranteed a deer within 35 tickets with a 1/35 chance. It means that every ticket has a 1/35 chance of bringing a deer. It’s just that most people will find a deer within 35 tickets.

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2020

1/35 nmts? but its not adding up.

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2020

but 80+ ticket over?

It can happen.

on the flip side, I tend to find a metric ton of bulls during my hunts. Statistics can be weird.

 

[Hobowire]

I think you’re looking at this wrong: you’re not guaranteed a deer within 35 tickets with a 1/35 chance. It means that every ticket has a 1/35 chance of bringing a deer. It’s just that most people will find a deer within 35 tickets.

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2020

It can happen.

on the flip side, I tend to find a metric ton of bulls during my hunts. Statistics can be weird.

i get that but it just a large gap fro 35 to 120. Guess its just horrible RNG. we'll try again on villager 4 because i didnt get a deer.

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

i get that but it just a large gap fro 35 to 120. Guess its just horrible RNG. we'll try again on villager 4 because i didnt get a deer.

I both took a course on statistics and I’m an avid shiny hunter on Pokémon so I have a good grip on what’s happening. It feels like the bell curve is against ya all the time.

 

[Hobowire]

I both took a course on statistics and I’m an avid shiny hunter on Pokémon so I have a good grip on what’s happening. It feels like the bell curve is against ya all the time.

ty. it doesn't explain much tho. I will try again on the next run.

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

ty. it doesn't explain much tho. I will try again on the next run.

Sorry if my explanation is a bit off. I’m sure someone who has taken statistics more recently could explain it better (I took it in the summer of 2018)

 

[Hobowire]

Sorry if my explanation is a bit off. I’m sure someone who has taken statistics more recently could explain it better (I took it in the summer of 2018)

No worries. It's not going to accelerate the deer hunt.

 

[NyattaSama]

If you're interested in reading a little bit about how mystery islands work, this doc has an in-depth explanation of how the game generates mystery island encounters.

RNG is an a-hole sometimes for real. I spent 863 tickets looking for Dom and ended up taking Judy on my 863rd island.

 

[Hobowire]

If you're interested in reading a little bit about how mystery islands work, this doc has an in-depth explanation of how the game generates mystery island encounters.

RNG is an a-hole sometimes for real. I spent 863 tickets looking for Dom and ended up taking Judy on my 863rd island.

wow that's a lot of tickets! I hope you found Dom.

I'm reading the doc, this THREAD, and links within the doc. There are bit of inconsistency with the run from today. I;m searching for species only. My sample size for this run is 120. I'll keep records for the next run.


edit: TY tho. I very much appreciate the read.

 

[Megannn_]

i can donate 15 for the hunt.
i would give more but i sold them all already

 

[Hobowire]

i can donate 15 for the hunt.
i would give more but i sold them all already

ty. Im sitting on quite a bit.

 

[Megannn_]

ty. Im sitting on quite a bit.

okay :3
lemme know! don't really need them anymore.

 

[Hobowire]

okay :3
lemme know! don't really need them anymore.

tyty also some members here are helping get some deer. I love the new avatar btw.

 

[Megannn_]

tyty also some members here are helping get some deer. I love the new avatar btw.

lol thank ya<3
chocosongee's art is too adorable

 

[MyLifeIsCake]

Wish you luck. I've ran into several deer on the hunt for Lily or Coco. I think I saw Diana, Deidre, Bam, Lopez, Fushia (twice) in about 60 tickets my last run. Some days will roll you one of more species for some reason. Also got a lot of cows/bulls that time as well. Weird.

 

[Red Cat]

Sorry if my explanation is a bit off. I’m sure someone who has taken statistics more recently could explain it better (I took it in the summer of 2018)

I majored in stats so I can explain it. In this situation having a 1/35 probability of finding a deer just means you will find a deer close to 1 out of every 35 tries if you use many, many NMT. So if you used 35,000 NMT, you'd find a deer close to 1000 times. But in small sample sizes (like using only 35 NMT), the outcomes are a lot more unpredictable. You have about a 64% chance of finding at least one deer in 35 tries, which is better than 50%, but you still have a greater than 1/3 probability of not finding a deer at all. You could get lucky and find more than one deer in those 35 tries as well. Over many, many tries you'll have hot streaks where you find many deer quickly and cold streaks where you don't find any deer at all for a long time, but those hot streaks and cold streaks will balance out so you find a deer close to once every 35 tries overall. Unfortunately, it's not realistic to get and use thousands of NMT, so you may end up getting screwed by bad luck because you're forced into a small sample size. The campsite is more reliable because it's rigged to avoid repeat villagers of the same personality, but if you're going for one species only, then there may not be much of a difference since the campsite doesn't have the favorable species roll mechanic.

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

I majored in stats so I can explain it. In this situation having a 1/35 probability of finding a deer just means you will find a deer close to 1 out of every 35 tries if you use many, many NMT. So if you used 35,000 NMT, you'd find a deer close to 1000 times. But in small sample sizes (like using only 35 NMT), the outcomes are a lot more unpredictable. You have about a 64% chance of finding at least one deer in 35 tries, which is better than 50%, but you still have a greater than 1/3 probability of not finding a deer at all. You could get lucky and find more than one deer in those 35 tries as well. Over many, many tries you'll have hot streaks where you find many deer quickly and cold streaks where you don't find any deer at all for a long time, but those hot streaks and cold streaks will balance out so you find a deer close to once every 35 tries overall. Unfortunately, it's not realistic to get and use thousands of NMT, so you may end up getting screwed by bad luck because you're forced into a small sample size. The campsite is more reliable because it's rigged to avoid repeat villagers of the same personality, but if you're going for one species only, then there may not be much of a difference since the campsite doesn't have the favorable species roll mechanic.

Thank you so much! Yea I only took the one course a few years ago (I’m taking another course that’s closer to my major this fall, though) so I was really rusty on the specifics.

 

[WaileaNoRei]

that cant be right if it's roll for species first. because i'm on my 4th villager and i just spent 120nmts. If that the case likelihood is that i would hit a deer 3or 4 times?

it rolls for species first, but it is random each time. So seeing a certain species on one roll doesn’t effect your chances on the next roll at all. Like with a coin toss it is 50-50 each time you flip the coin, even if it comes up heads 10 times in a row, the 11th time there is still a 50-50 chance it comes up heads.

Our brains really dislike randomness, but I think each time you go to a new island it is like you are going to your first island. the likelihood of getting a deer never changes. It’s always 1/35 (or however many species there are).

the way I tend to think of it to myself if I start to swear the game is conspiring against me is that the more that there seems to be things that look not random to me, like repeats, or seeing multiple of one type or species in a row the more likely is it that it really is random. we want to think random means evenly distributed, but it’s much more chaotic.

Post automatically merged: Jul 24, 2020

I majored in stats so I can explain it. In this situation having a 1/35 probability of finding a deer just means you will find a deer close to 1 out of every 35 tries if you use many, many NMT. So if you used 35,000 NMT, you'd find a deer close to 1000 times. But in small sample sizes (like using only 35 NMT), the outcomes are a lot more unpredictable. You have about a 64% chance of finding at least one deer in 35 tries, which is better than 50%, but you still have a greater than 1/3 probability of not finding a deer at all. You could get lucky and find more than one deer in those 35 tries as well. Over many, many tries you'll have hot streaks where you find many deer quickly and cold streaks where you don't find any deer at all for a long time, but those hot streaks and cold streaks will balance out so you find a deer close to once every 35 tries overall. Unfortunately, it's not realistic to get and use thousands of NMT, so you may end up getting screwed by bad luck because you're forced into a small sample size. The campsite is more reliable because it's rigged to avoid repeat villagers of the same personality, but if you're going for one species only, then there may not be much of a difference since the campsite doesn't have the favorable species roll mechanic.

oh dang, I wrote out my very poor attempt at explaining this and I could have saved my breath! Thank you for this! I love reading about this stuff. (And I was not quite confident enough to enter into the probability stuff, which is so important)

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

it rolls for species first, but it is random each time. So seeing a certain species on one roll doesn’t effect your chances on the next roll at all. Like with a coin toss it is 50-50 each time you flip the coin, even if it comes up heads 10 times in a row, the 11th time there is still a 50-50 chance it comes up heads.

Our brains really dislike randomness, but I think each time you go to a new island it is like you are going to your first island. the likelihood of getting a deer never changes. It’s always 1/35 (or however many species there are).

the way I tend to think of it to myself if I start to swear the game is conspiring against me is that the more that there seems to be things that look not random to me, like repeats, or seeing multiple of one type or species in a row the more likely is it that it really is random. we want to think random means evenly distributed, but it’s much more chaotic.

Yeah, I remember hearing about how Apple had to change the shuffle to be less random because people were complaining about songs repeating over and over (something that could happen with near-true randomness). That’s why I’m stocking up on NMTs for when I get my new island: I want to make sure that I have the best odds.