Spent an evening island-hopping, and it's a damn scam

[lunachii]

So I just wasted over 30 nook tickets that I had saved up to look for a new villager since I just got an open spot in my town, I went island-hopping.

And I swear to god, this is such a scam lol! I didn't see one villager I like, and I don't think I'm really picky when choosing villagers. Obviously I'm looking for my dreamies, but I don't expect to find them fast, and I have a long list of other villagers I would not mind having in my town untill my dreamies replace them - and still I didn't see one nice villager. I also experienced seeing the same villagers many times, I saw the lion villagers Lionel and Elvis twice EACH, I also saw Broffina twice in a row(!) in these 30 trips. This makes me so angry because there is SO many villlagers, why would they throw out duplicates on the islands so fast. I'm convinced it's not even RNG because that would make it almost impossible to see the same villagers twice in a row in 20-30 trips, if all the 300+ villagers was counted in. Also starting to think that the "best" villagers is extremely rare, forcing us into buying amiibo cards ;_;

I don't know, have anyone actually found someone good on the islands because I'm starting to lose all hope and I'm sad all my saved up tickets went down the toilet

 

[Licorice]

The universe wants you to have Lionel and Elvis. The prophecy must be fulfilled.

 

[Heartcore]

I don't know. I went on a lot of island tours since I started playing the game and I've encountered some super rare villagers. I found 4 of the new villagers, Judy, Audie, Sherb, and Raymond from the island tours and along the way I also saw Stitches, Merengue, Whitney, Julian, Diana, Chief, Marina, pretty much every high tier/highly sought after villager aside from Marshal. Some days were worse than others though and I there were a lot of times I wanted to give up hope lol. I don't think there is a conspiracy to buy amiibo cards because it's not like they're selling them in stores anymore, at least not where I live, it's all scalpers selling them online. I do think some villagers have higher spawn rates for some, like I saw Marina probably 15 times over the course of all my trips and she's considered highly sought after by the community (even though I don't like her).

 

[tybalt_cake]

Wouldn't call it a scam , it's just the RGB of the game , to find an specific villager you would have like 1 in 1000 chances to see them afaik.

 

[Nefarious]

Someone found out that it's not even a 1/300+ chance as it doesn't roll by villager but by species. 1/35 chance at getting a species and then it rolls 1/however many villagers in that species. That's why you find the same lion and octopus villagers more often than not.

 

[Hirisa]

There is no comspiracy to make people buy Amiibos for the “best” villagers because there are none. Yeah, we all have our favorites but it isn’t like there is one villager who “lazies” or “normals” the best and the other villagers are somehow lesser. It just sounds like rng didn’t go your way. I’ve definitely been there.

 

[Hesper]

Unfortunately, RNG suffers from 2 things: confirmation bias, and the 'probability is fake' thing where it is just as possible to see the same thing twice, because each visit pulls from the same pool and they're all evenly weighted. Hence gambler's fallacy existing. The game doesn't cross out a villager from the pool just because you just saw them.

Tl;dr--Desire Sensor Lives and Reigns, amen.

 

[Spunki]

If the „best“ Villagers would be rare, I would not have encountered Mitzi and Merengue. It’s just luck and I will prove it tomorrow, when I use my 45 NMT, after Pashmina moves out. If I encounter something like Marshal or Raymond, I will let you know. I will write down every Villager I encountered after I find either a new Uchi or someone I like.

 

[Carole]

Right. Playing the game is a scam. (?)

Going on the Nooks Miles tours is the best part of my life right now. If you can't find the animal you are looking for, get to know the animals you get randomly. I have been extremely pleased with the improvements in each one since past games.

 

[Lotusblossom]

I don't know. I went on a lot of island tours since I started playing the game and I've encountered some super rare villagers. I found 4 of the new villagers, Judy, Audie, Sherb, and Raymond from the island tours and along the way I also saw Stitches, Merengue, Whitney, Julian, Diana, Chief, Marina, pretty much every high tier/highly sought after villager aside from Marshal. Some days were worse than others though and I there were a lot of times I wanted to give up hope lol. I don't think there is a conspiracy to buy amiibo cards because it's not like they're selling them in stores anymore, at least not where I live, it's all scalpers selling them online. I do think some villagers have higher spawn rates for some, like I saw Marina probably 15 times over the course of all my trips and she's considered highly sought after by the community (even though I don't like her).

How many island trips did u do??

Post automatically merged: Apr 18, 2020

Someone found out that it's not even a 1/300+ chance as it doesn't roll by villager but by species. 1/35 chance at getting a species and then it rolls 1/however many villagers in that species. That's why you find the same lion and octopus villagers more often than not.

Well julian is a unicorn not a horse

 

[cicely]

I mean if you're saying the developers coded villagers to show up based on fan popularity, which is data they'd have to waste time collecting...that's clearly not the case lol
I think Elvis is a really nice villager, so if villager Niceness were objective then I'd say you've had no problems finding good ones

 

[sicklewillow]

Here's the thread for those interested:

Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests

Hello all, There is lots of talk about the specific pattern that is used for villagers on mystery islands. I would like to present my findings in this thread and open it up for possible statistics discussions to confirm this theory even more. First, I'd like to thank Selkie for sending me...

www.belltreeforums.com

I understand your predicaments OP. Same position last week that it was very disheartening. It seems the AC gods were kind to me last night because I was able to find my second dreamie last night. But I have look for my last dreamie so its a bit early to celebrate.

 

[Raz]

The universe wants you to have Lionel and Elvis. The prophecy must be fulfilled.

Guy could have Elvis and Lionel Ritchie to form a trio with K.K. and passed on the opportunity!

 

[Rowlet28]

Almost 400 tickets and no Raymond or Judy....

 

[Nefarious]

How many island trips did u do??

Post automatically merged: Apr 18, 2020

Well julian is a unicorn not a horse

Julian is still part of the horse species. Just like how Drago is still an alligator. Their model is a little different than then the rest of their species.

 

[ctar17]

Hi!

Yes that was me who discovered that it rolls by species first instead of straight to a villager. I'd be happy with answering some questions you all may have, however, I encourage you to look at the thread in my signature for detailed info, and questions that people have already asked!

All I'll say for now is that many in this thread have already stated the nature of RNG, specifically how in this game it rolls species first. I particularly would draw your attention to the psychological factors that Hesper mentioned as a possible source for you frustration, especially confirmation bias.

I put this in a different thread so I'll post it here again, just my views:
"I just discovered the mechanics behind the mystery island RNG (check my sig for the thread), and I would think that the mystery islands were not intended to be used hundreds and hundreds of times in search of that 1 specific villager. I think Nintendo might have meant for them to provide more of a variety of options to people as the animal species (not specific villagers) all have the same chance of appearing on them. This is a huge improvement over previous games when random was basically the inevitable thing to happen if you didn't adopt from someone else... It allows the user some degree of choice, but I don't think they intended or wanted people to abuse the islands in search of Raymond or any 1 specific villager for that matter... They're meant to be used for resources, a fun trip to get away from your island, and maybe invite a villager too, but not to grind them for a business cat "

 

[Aleigh]

I found Julian on an island and I was sooo pleased. Last night I found Vivian on my third island. Fauna I found on an island in the very very beginning (as she was one of my first five). But other than that, all villagers I wouldn't enjoy

 

[Mello]

I found Marshal on my third island trip one day, and the very next day I found Julian after 5 trips. Both of them are my favorites. Ever since those two though, I've seen C H O P S at least 15 times, and H A R R Y more times than I should have been subjected to. Matter of fact, I haven't island hopped in 2 weeks due to the trauma. Good luck OP.

 

[trashpedia]

Eh I kinda go on islands when I'm not looking for a villager in particular and I just wanna see what sort of villager I can run into. I stopped depending on them for dreamies at this point because it feels like a waste of Nook Miles.

 

[DJStarstryker]

I don't know how many islands I've visited, but it hasn't even been 30 yet. For the higher demand stuff I've seen Julian, Merengue, Kiki (whom I adopted), Dom, and Sherb. It really does feel like it's just up to RNG.