How many Nook Miles Tickets are reasonable in pursuit of Raymond, others?

[Candy83]

Within the past 30 days, and with an open plot for an incoming islander, I went to Mystery Island in pursuit of new “New Horizons” characters like Smug cat Raymond and Peppy werewolf Audie.

All I came up with are established islanders. (And I have their amiibo cards.)

I am now willing to go for any of the eight new individuals whom I first encounter on Mystery Island. (In addition to Audie and Raymond, they are: Cranky elephant Cyd; Snooty bear cub Judy; Lazy goat Sherb; Normal bear Megan; Jock sheep Dom; and Uchi horse Reneigh.)

The visits to Mystery Island were two separate occurrences. In the first, I went with 20 tickets; in the second, I went with 25. In other words: I gave myself a limit both times.

What does Bell Tree Forums members think about this topic?

 

[InstantNoodles]

I guess it's ultimately a very low chance since mystery island rolls for species first, then a random individual belonging to that species. For example in Raymond's case the chance of finding him would be 1/800 or so since there are a lot of cat villagers

 

[Pintuition]

I always give myself a limit based on how many tickets I have left and the time I have left to search. By the time I hit 30, I stop looking for a particular villager and accept anyone cool who may strike me when I come across them! I've never spent more than 35 tickets in a single search! Not that doing more is wrong, everyone has their preferences, but there's so many awesome villagers out there you can come across!

 

[TaylaJade]

With almost 400 villagers, ultimately it’s all up to chance!
I was able to get Raymond through the campsite method after about 15 tries. I didn’t have a smug on my island (and was looking for Marshal) so there was a greater chance that that personality type would appear.
I got Sherb after 21 tickets (although I wasn’t looking specifically for him). I initially stopped at 20 (I had set a limit like you did) then thought I’d try one more island!
Perseverance is key I guess? Maybe the best thing would be to save your NMT and buy those villagers instead.

 

[meggiewes]

Reasonable is whatever you are personally willing to spend.

 

[JKDOS]

If anyone is willing to TT, Raymond is just a couple hours of work away from joining your town. (See Campsite Method). No NMT needed.

I put together short simulation using the 1/800 chance. I used 1000 NMT, and ran the simulation 10,000 times. Raymond was found 72.13% of the time.

out of 10,000,000 NMT
Raymond was found 12,607 times.

 

[Hobowire]

May the RNG god be with you. Every nook mile ticket there's a minute chance of getting the exact villager you want.

 

[marieheiwa]

i think it’s always better to do NMT island hopping without a precise idea of who you want. you could go through hundreds of tickets without finding the specific villager but you probably would’ve skipped you would have enjoyed!

 

[Bk1234]

One NMT is all that is necessary. That’s how much it took me! Jokes aside, I would say at least 50 NMT? However, I wouldn’t go island hopping looking for one specific villager.

 

[niko@kamogawa]

The odds are against you. I know someone who spent over 300 just to snag him. It all depends on your real life luck.

As for my own experience, I spent 184 tickets and failed to find Felicity.

 

[Mikaiah]

it's just about luck.
if you're looking for one specific (non-octopus) villager you're looking at... a lot.

for raymond specifically::
1/805 if you dont have cat villagers in your town. this is assuming even odds which are NOT guaranteed, just a rough estimate.
1/490 if you have 9 other cat villagers in your town.

either way you swing it, these are just averages calculated based on island hopping odds, so if you get lucky, you can get it early on in the set, if you're hyper unlucky you could go through 1000+ without seeing the villager you're after.

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

I always cast a wide net of dreamies when I hunt. I had 4-6 dreamies I was looking for on Tuesday. Raymond was one of the targets. I only found like 4 or 5 cats out of 141 tickets (got Moe twice). I think I got a bit Lucky (get it? haha) finding the dreamie I did as I only had one dog out of 20 total.

 

[loveclove]

I would say you should just buy him here or on nookazon, if you really want him. Some people still charge really high but if you look for it with patience you may get a reasonable price like I did here on the forum.
Getting him with only 20-25 tickets would be really lucky. Island hopping, at least for me, is only fun when you're open to a larger variety of villagers

 

[sleepydreepy]

I got really lucky with most of my villagers except for Chester. I spent about 200 NMT searching for him. That experience made me realize how difficult it can be searching for one specific villager. Its really just based on chance I think

 

[mayortiffany]

Honestly, if you are looking for a specific villager, I feel like the safest option is to buy them outright from someone else. That way, you don't have to worry about running out of tickets before you get the villager of your dreams!

Otherwise, I think that putting a limit on your tickets when you go island hopping is a good way to keep track of your budget. The more tickets you give yourself, the more choices you have obviously, but it can be fun to see who you get with only a few tickets.

And yes, you can get Raymond in less than like, 200 NMT! I got him in 9 tickets.... it is possible!

As for villager prices, I think that prices should decrease in the coming months as more people get the villagers they want, especially if there will be a new wave of Amiibo cards coming out with the new villagers.

 

[nammie]

I think aiming for any specific villager is just gonna make you extremely frustrated. I do something similar to what you do, I go around 15-20 times and just take the first cute villager I see lol.

I guess I've been pretty lucky though since I've gotten Audie, Sherb, and Dom all from mystery islands and I wasn't particularly looking for any of them.

 

[FRANS_PLAYER]

I've seen people bulldoze through 400+ tickets in search of Raymond. And others find him on their 2nd! It's all up to luck

 

[applesauc3]

Honestly I think it’s completely random, because I found Judy on my third nook mile ticket, and then I spent a ton of tickets looking for other villagers which I was never able to find

 

[Ras]

Within the past 30 days, and with an open plot for an incoming islander, I went to Mystery Island in pursuit of new “New Horizons” characters like Smug cat Raymond and Peppy werewolf Audie.

All I came up with are established islanders. (And I have their amiibo cards.)

I am now willing to go for any of the eight new individuals whom I first encounter on Mystery Island. (In addition to Audie and Raymond, they are: Cranky elephant Cyd; Snooty bear cub Judy; Lazy goat Sherb; Normal bear Megan; Jock sheep Dom; and Uchi horse Reneigh.)

The visits to Mystery Island were two separate occurrences. In the first, I went with 20 tickets; in the second, I went with 25. In other words: I gave myself a limit both times.

What does Bell Tree Forums members think about this topic?

You have more TBTs than anyone I’ve ever seen. You could buy 1000 NMTs and barely dent your supply. I had 102 NMTs and found Audie in 44 trips—which was lucky—but those 44 trips probably took less than or right at an hour. It’s actually kind of fun, with the only fun-killer being the idea that you might find your wanted villager next or not even after 200.

 

[matt2019]

I would say a few hundred at most