Friendship Affects Move Outs! (Villager Move Out Datamine and Calculator)

[ThePhantom]

So does this confirm that hitting/pushing villagers will increase chance of them asking to move out (since that decreases friendship)? All those rumors early on were actually true??

 

[Chiana]

How can you tell what the specific friendship level is with a villager?

 

[a sprout]

Yo, this is really interesting. Thank you!

How can you tell what the specific friendship level is with a villager?

Um, I saw a video by Mayor Mori! He sorta chunks it up into the same 6 sections as the post. 1 being the lowest, and 6 being the highest.
If you're friends with your villager (level 1-2), Villagers will give you gifts and will accept daily gifts from you.
If you're good friends with your villager (level 3-4), villagers will sell you items, give nicknames, and offer for you to change their catchphrase.
If you're best friends with your villager (level 5-6), villagers will let you change their greeting, obtain their picture, and offer to buy and trade items from you.
Other than that, I wouldn't really be able to know specifically with where you stand with the villager.;; There might be a way, but I dunno.

(Mayor Mori's video)

 

[Sheando]

I’m sure a lot of people will love the idea that lower friendship villagers ask to move more frequently, and it makes logical sense, so I’m not upset. But I’m a little saddened that there’s a mechanical “disadvantage” to being friendly to everyone. I definitely have some villagers I would prefer to move out, but I don’t enjoy ignoring or mistreating anyone. The villager cap is low enough without me rejecting half my town! I’ll just talk to everyone, but try to be friendlier with my favorites.

 

[Morningowl]

Its bad the interest part to me is when Ninji says in same thread of tweets “either way, that's it. there is no magic method to make villagers move out, sorry. you can manipulate it _slightly_ but it's still heavily chance-based”

Also the point some said earlier in this thread if all the villager are at pretty same friendship level then they seem to have to similar chances to move out. I don’t know if any of this will encourage more to being mean to their villagers because people already doing that.

 

[Bioness]

This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing!

I did my own experiment as well when moving out a villager. (I am not a time traveler, by the way.)

Pekoe wanted to move yesterday. Instead of responding to it, I closed my game and didn't talk to her.

For today, she still requested to move. (I was hoping to get someone else move instead.) I am not sure if this is something that you can pass onto another villager. But it looks like the game remembers still that a specific villager wants to move.

If what you say is correct, I think you were unlucky in that it selected her again. Normally closing the game will cause it to transfer, assuming you didn't talk to her later.

 

[niko@kamogawa]

If you say is correct, I think you were unlucky in that it selected her again. Normally closing the game will cause it to transfer, assuming you didn't talk to her later.

I wasn't patient enough then. Pekoe has max friendship with me. By right, she should have the lowest chance along with Diana to request moving away. Anyway, I decided to say "no" today and I will wait for five days. Honestly, this is a painful experience to those players who don't time travel. Thanks for responding to my concern though. I appreciated it.

 

[Sefyre]

RNG is so weird sometimes.

Fuchsia is one of my starters and she's one of my first friendship-maxed animals who's given me her photo. Rowan is my other starter who is also friendship-maxed.

In spite of this, Fuchsia was the one who asked to move when villager 7 moved in.

Before that, villager 3 asked to move when villager 6 moved in and my relationship with 3 was significantly better than my relationship with with 4 and 5.

 

[Cethosia]

So if you do the campsite method, you can prevent one from being chosen by asking Nook to move their house? I assume just holding onto the moving kit would be enough?

 

[cheezu]

This does seem strange as I often have villagers with high friendship asking me to move out (Sherb has already asked to move out TWICE and he's given me his picture).
I suppose I'll just start ignoring the ones I want gone from now on though just to be safe.

 

[Underneath The Stars]

this is really really helpful! thanks for sharing.. though i'm shocked that it seems like villagers i have high friendship with still wants to move out (i ignore the thought bubble in the morning sometimes hoping it moves to a new villager)

 

[brockbrock]

Wow, that really blows what we thought we knew about the moving out process out of the water (and now I feel bad for telling so many people that it made no difference if you hit them with a net, etc).

All of my island's recent villager requests to move out have come from my 4 newest villagers (apart from the newest addition) whom I know I have not spend enough time and effort cultivating a friendship with yet, so it makes sense.

 

[Solio]

So if anyone's curious, here's the formula that calculates each villagers chance to be selected for the moveout bubble (source ninji):

"if these checks pass, a random villager will be picked who will ask to move out each villager's chance is based on friendship and calculated by floor((300 - a) / 10) - r a = average friendship they have with all island residents r = amount of residents with >200 friendship ". (residents being the human characters: r maxes at 8, "floor" is a function for rounding down)

Sooo, lets say there is 1 player character and the villagers is at max. friendship with them (a = 255),

floor((300 - 255) / 10) - 1
floor(4.5)-1
4 - 1
= 3

And the same with default friendship (a = 25)

floor((300 - 25) / 10) - 0
Floor((27.5)
= 27

So the values presented in the OP seem to be correct. The factor is x9. (That is, if the formula provided by ninji is correct.)
Hmmm... Interesting, so it seems that friendship plays indeed a major role when the game picks someone to move out.
Well, in theory, that is...
However, I experienced several instances that contradict the statements presented:
_ Ive had villagers ask to leave with less than 5 days appart, eventhough I finished the conversation, saved and didnt timetravel in between.
-Ive had my most recent villager ask to move out. Multiple times.

 

[AshdewCrossing]

For move outs via campsite, villagers in boxes (either moving in or out) are excluded. Villagers that have their house scheduled for moving are also excluded. Each villager is weighted equally to be chosen.

Hold up...I had a villager in boxes and a campsite visitor on the same day. I invited the campsite visitor and they chose to 'kick' the villager that was already in boxes. Am I misreading this?
Also wouldn't this create a situation where you'd have 2 villagers in boxes on the same day?

 

[Manah]

Oh well, good thing I can reset the campsite to pick a villager I want out. Not gonna bother with micromanaging villager interactions.

 

[Lattecakes]

This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing!

I did my own experiment as well when moving out a villager. (I am not a time traveler, by the way.)

Pekoe wanted to move yesterday. Instead of responding to it, I closed my game and didn't talk to her.

For today, she still requested to move. (I was hoping to get someone else move instead.) I am not sure if this is something that you can pass onto another villager. But it looks like the game remembers still that a specific villager wants to move.

I tried that as well and it happened to me. Marshal had a bubble to move out. As soon as he asked to move out, I didn't finish the dialog and just force closed the game. When I went back into the game, alas, it was him with the bubble asking me to leave agai. Tried it once more and got the same result. As for this method, I saw a youtuber doing it and got the bubble to successfully move onto a different person but if I remember correctly, it was because he forced closed and then TTed...i could be wrong tho! My memory has been slacking lately lol.

 

[cheezu]

I tried that as well and it happened to me. Marshal had a bubble to move out. As soon as he asked to move out, I didn't finish the dialog and just force closed the game. When I went back into the game, alas, it was him with the bubble asking me to leave agai. Tried it once more and got the same result. As for this method, I saw a youtuber doing it and got the bubble to successfully move onto a different person but if I remember correctly, it was because he forced closed and then TTed...i could be wrong tho! My memory has been slacking lately lol.

The bubble will stay on that villager for that day. It has a chance of moving to someone else in the following days.

 

[Lattecakes]

The bubble will stay on that villager for that day. It. has a chance of moving to someone else in the following days.

Ahhh!! Thanks for confirming that for me makes me wish I TTed lolol.

 

[cheezu]

Ahhh!! Thanks for confirming that for me makes me wish I TTed lolol.

Yeah, I think sometimes even the next day it might still be the same villager but it should swap over to someone else after that.

 

[wolfie1]

It's nice to finally know that friendship does in fact affect your chances of successfully moving someone out. I'm sad that this will probably mean that people will start being mean(er) to villagers they want to kick out, but oh well.

A 15 day cooldown is too long imo.... I want to cycle out faster without having to resort to TT-ing...

Once that cooldown has passed, you can start hitting villagers you want to stay if they have a bubble. Just once is fine. The next day, someone else will have a bubble, until it's on someone you want to kick out. That's what I've been doing and I've moved out two villagers without TT'ing. I'm trying to move out a third villager, but I'm not sure if the cooldown has passed yet or not.