Friendship Affects Move Outs! (Villager Move Out Datamine and Calculator)

[Bioness]

Based off datamining from Ninji:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1265341727310860290

For Thought-Bubble Move outs:
+- You must have at least 6 villagers for one to ask to move
+- Nobody will ask to move out 5 days after you've told someone "no"
+- After someone has moved out, there's a 15-day cooldown where nobody can ask
+- Villagers are excluded from asking if:
‣ their birthday is in the next 7 days;
‣ their house is being moved;
‣ they were picked the most recent time and told to stay; or
‣ they were the most recent villager to move in* (anecdotal evidence of this one being false, or possibly bugged)

The chances of a villager asking to move out increases slightly each day, until one asks to move out. Answering yes or no to this question resets the chance to the default. This boost caps after 30 days.

Friendship affects the chances for a villager to ask to move out, with a villager with a higher friendship having a noticeably lower chance of asking to move compared to villagers with low friendship - a max friendship villager is 1/10 as likely to ask to move out compared to a 0 friendship villager. Having extra residents on the island reduces this effect, unless they are also building up friendship with your villagers.

Relative Weights for Villagers Asking to Move Out
This assumes you are the only person on the island.

Friendship | Chance to Move
------------------------------------
0 (Minimum) | 10x
25 (Newly moved in) | 9x
30 (Can Gift) | 9x
60 (Favour Level 3) | 8x
100 (Favour Level 4) | 6.6x
150 (Favour Level 5) | 5x
200 (Favour Level 6) | 3x
255 (Max) | 1x

Campsite
For move outs via campsite, villagers in boxes (either moving in or out) are excluded. Villagers that have their house scheduled for moving are also excluded. Each villager is weighted equally to be chosen.

Villager Moveout Calculator

Villagers Move Out % Calculator

OneResidentPlayerOnly Azarro#8083 from <a href="http://nookplaza.net/">NookPlaza.net</a> has same calculator that requires no sheet copying:,<a href="https://nookplaza.net/tools?tab=move_out">https://nookplaza.net/tools?tab=move_out</a> File > Make a Copy to use it for your own villagers. Last ...

docs.google.com

Sources: Ninji from Twitter, GoldenCrater#7280 from Discord, Ahri#1337 from Discord

 

[Xara]

thank you for sharing!! this is very good info to know ;-;

 

[Rosch]

Well that sure changes things. There are so many hidden factors we didn't know.

 

[Aliya]

Thanks for sharing this! I honestly assumed it was purely random since I've had villagers who have just moved in ask to leave almost immediately after and my favorites seemed to ask more often. It's nice to see the campsite weighs everyone the same.

 

[Fendi]

This is really intriguing, thanks for sharing! I've always struggled to understand the dynamic of how villagers decide to move out, and I felt like there were times I was trying to "calculate" my chances of getting a villager out.

 

[jiojiop]

‣ they were the most recent villager to move in

This is weird. I had my most recent move-in from the void ask to move out within 5 days of moving in. She moved into the house I had set up to search for a Snooty, so this was a while back.

 

[Readinglynatic]

Thank you for sharing! I wonder what it means for people who are best friends/ maxed with all their villagers? I know most aren’t but I’ve seen people collecting all theirs and are the chances lower every 15-30 days? Is it a slower move out process?

 

[Bioness]

This is weird. I had my most recent move-in from the void ask to move out within 5 days of moving in. She moved into the house I had set up to search for a Snooty, so this was a while back.

Yeah, read the twitter post, Ninji said he was going to do more research since many people are reporting the same thing.

Post automatically merged: May 26, 2020

Thank you for sharing! I wonder what it means for people who are best friends/ maxed with all their villagers? I know most aren’t but I’ve seen people collecting all theirs and are the chances lower every 15-30 days? Is it a slower move out process?

The rates are compared to each other, if everyone is the same friendship rank, then they have an equal chance of moving out. You can test this in the calculator if you want.

 

[Blueskyy]

Here is a good video based on the data mining. Makes sense why Aurora’s and Raymond’s bubbles are always favors and not to move on my island.

 

[Jared:3]

I don't know if I believe the most recent move-in can't leave, I've had my most recent villager ask to move before so is it just low chances?

 

[Clock]

This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing!

 

[Bioness]

Here is a good video based on the data mining. Makes sense why Aurora’s and Raymond’s bubbles are always favors and not to move on my island.

No offense, but all those videos just use the same exact information I just gave you and will sometimes even add in their own incorrect information or bias. Youtubers at this point are stalking Ninji and other dataminers so that they can get fast content.

You don't really need a 15 minute video telling you something you can read in 3 minutes.

 

[Blueskyy]

No offense, but all those videos just use the same exact information I just gave you and will sometimes even add in their own incorrect information or bias. Youtubers at this point are stalking Ninji and other dataminers so that they can get fast content.

You don't really need a 15 minute video telling you something you can read in 3 minutes.

None taken so no worries! No harm done here so all good! Just posting something for others to reference that is visual and auditory as well. Thanks for the post, OP!

 

[0orchid]

This is strange because I'm most often asked by villagers who have already given me their picture. Either villagers like this or ones who have barely moved in I guess even with a low probability that has still happened a lot for me with villagers who's pictures I've obtained

 

[Blueskyy]

This is strange because I'm most often asked by villagers who have already given me their picture. Either villagers like this or ones who have barely moved in I guess even with a low probability that has still happened a lot for me with villagers who's pictures I've obtained

It seems like the ones I have pictures from only ask for favors or want to give me something when they have the bubble. Did you talk to them when they have the bubble to confirm move out dialogue?

 

[theravenboys]

Thanks so much for sharing this! I'm curious if the manner they were obtained through affects whether or not your newest move-in can ask to move out. One time my newest move-in asked to move, and it was the villager who was the forced move-in from the campsite. Another user said a move-in from the void asked to move out. So I wonder if it's different depending on where you got the villager?? There doesn't seem to be any data pointing to that so far, but if anyone else's most recent move-in has ever asked to move, I'd like to know how you got them!

 

[Bioness]

None taken so no worries! Just posting something for others to reference that is visual and auditory as well. Thanks for the post, OP!

Sorry, if I sounded discourteous. I understand some people do find the videos helpful to digest otherwise abstruse information such as those presented in spreadsheets and code. It isn't for me, but to each their own.

 

[0orchid]

It seems like the ones I have pictures from only ask for favors or want to give me something when they have the bubble. Did you talk to them when they have the bubble to confirm move out dialogue?

Yes! My most recent natural move out was Rolf and I just got his pic last week. Meanwhile there are a handful of my villagers who haven't given me their pics who have never asked to move. I get non move-out thought bubbles really often so I just meant the move out dialogue.

 

[biksoka]

How do we track exact friendship points; would it just be noting, oh it's the first time I can get them a gift - they must be at 30?

 

[Blueskyy]

Sorry, if I sounded discourteous. I understand some people do find the videos helpful to digest otherwise abstruse information such as those presented in spreadsheets and code. It isn't for me, but to each their own.

Yeah different strokes for different folks. That goes for pretty much anything AC. I’ve been looking into this a lot today and it confirms a lot of what is known. I just probably need to better track numerical data for friendship levels of my current villagers. Or just stop caring so much about it