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I’ve had especially bad luck today, so I suspect it’s just the RNG as always. I’ve spent about three hours actively balloon farming today (one in the morning, one mid day, and one right now), and haven’t gotten a single recipe. I also got a duplicate festive recipe yesterday, even though I’m nowhere near completing the set.
It's likely just luck and not a real thing, but I've also been getting more DIYs from the balloons lately, which is kind of funny since I actually really needed clay and iron last week so I wouldn't have minded getting materials in balloons. I has able to get about half of the festive/illuminated DIYs in one day, and I'm planning on balloon hunting tonight and tomorrow to get the other ones that I plan on using on my island, and leave the rest for next year (assuming the same DIYs return next winter)
I finally saw higher spawn rates today but only on my northern island. The southern island character received duplicate summer shell recipes for some reason.
Have yet to get a single DIY, granted I barely play the game, but I have popped at least 10 balloons in the last week, maybe I should just start camping balloons.
A couple of days ago I had crazy luck with my DIYs! Got like 4 of the Festive ones in the span of just a couple of hours. Some people might think those odds are pretty bad, but I usually only luck out with 1 DIY a day over the span of more than a couple of hours.
I also got a dupe Festive DIY but the very next balloon was another that I didn't have! So I was able to send my extra to a friend.
My RNG was very kind because I got 4 or 5 the first morning the festive ones were out. I stopped farming for a bit after but I've managed to collect all the snowflake/festive ones now. Just onto collecting all the frozen ones from these pesky snowboys... not sure if it's better or worse