A friend of mine wants to get rid of Marshal in her town and she's willing to give him away for free.
She doesn't have a TBT account though.3 Options - [Decided; Update in Jan, Closed]
- Thread starter UnwrittenTale
- Start date
She doesn't have a TBT account though.UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
A friend of mine wants to get rid of Marshal in her town and she's willing to give him away for free.
-starts doing the distress emote-
How soon is she getting rid of him? If I'm restarting, I'll do it Jan 1st. I.. just have to figure out what to do with all of my Sanrio and Welcome Amiibo items I spent too much TBT and time to loose. -cry- I wish there was some way to save the furniture through a wipe.
Depends on when he pings.
UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
Depends on when he pings.
Well, they usually give a ten day warning. I should be ready. ;o;
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Question! If you restart your town, do you get to keep everyone's catalogs, or just the mayor's?
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And, would anyone be willing to hold furniture for me? I would pay for the service.
i used to be a stats major, and let me tell you something that may be comforting:
tho each pack of buying amiibo cards is an independent attempt to draw the cards you want from the last, there is still a 5/80 or something chance of drawing them; 5/80 = 6%, which is higher than an "alpha" that a lot of statisticians use of 5% to decide whether or not an outcome is statistically significant (in this case, without considering any outside factors, there is a statistically significant chance that you will pull at least one card that you like, even though it is low)
there is a 75/80 chance (94%) that you won't get a card you like on the first pack, but if you continue to buy them (or buy multiples), that chance decreases by a factor of itself (this only works if each draw is independent of the last, which it is).
for example, if i buy 5 packs, i can multiply that 94% by itself 4 other times (5 times total):
.94*.94*.94*.94*.94 = only a 73% chance of not getting the cards you want (or a 27% chance of getting a card that you did want)
TO CONCLUDE, i think ur best bet is buying packs lol; less money than the cards you want if statistics favor you, more potential villagers to choose from regardless, don't have to delete your town, don't have to shell out for another system
edit: on the other side of things, if you do a 2017 new year's reset (without following the "rules" of the new year challenges), i can let you bring some of ur old stuff that u want to keep to my town until you have a new town and then you can get it with your new mayor :^) just pm me and we'll arrange something
tho each pack of buying amiibo cards is an independent attempt to draw the cards you want from the last, there is still a 5/80 or something chance of drawing them; 5/80 = 6%, which is higher than an "alpha" that a lot of statisticians use of 5% to decide whether or not an outcome is statistically significant (in this case, without considering any outside factors, there is a statistically significant chance that you will pull at least one card that you like, even though it is low)
there is a 75/80 chance (94%) that you won't get a card you like on the first pack, but if you continue to buy them (or buy multiples), that chance decreases by a factor of itself (this only works if each draw is independent of the last, which it is).
for example, if i buy 5 packs, i can multiply that 94% by itself 4 other times (5 times total):
.94*.94*.94*.94*.94 = only a 73% chance of not getting the cards you want (or a 27% chance of getting a card that you did want)
TO CONCLUDE, i think ur best bet is buying packs lol; less money than the cards you want if statistics favor you, more potential villagers to choose from regardless, don't have to delete your town, don't have to shell out for another system
edit: on the other side of things, if you do a 2017 new year's reset (without following the "rules" of the new year challenges), i can let you bring some of ur old stuff that u want to keep to my town until you have a new town and then you can get it with your new mayor :^) just pm me and we'll arrange something
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UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
This is actually rather good information. So, let's say the minimum I would have to buy in order to get the cards I want would be, say, 5 packs? They don't make duplicate sets of six, do they?
(And thank you, I do appreciate that offer and will keep you in mind if needed. ^^)
Edit: If my math is right, 20 packs would equal an 80%
some chance I would get the correct card?
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UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
Sweet! <33 (Just saw this one now, sorry.)
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-slow nod-
You have no idea, at all.
UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
And in Series 1, I believe Punchy is thrown somewhere there in the mix. Hhhnng.
I would restart if I were you. It's the most cost-effective and practical solution in my opinion. If you do chose to reset, I have all the WA RVs, Sanrio cards, and Marshal's card that you could use to get some of your stuff back.
UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
<3333 I'm keeping you in mind.
UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
SensaiGallade
✨ Étoile 2020 ✨
I you do so hapen to restart, could you take a moment and have a look at the 2017 1 Year challenge thread I am running? Obviously, it is optional, but it will be a great opportunity.
http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...The-1-Year-Challenge-2017-Edition-Sign-up-now!
Please tell me if I'm going to far with this, feel like I am...
I'm a little confused. Why do you have to let the villagers you DO like move out of your town just because Mint and Tutu won't? Is it because you're looking for certain personalities?
This sounds really frustrating in any case, and I'm sorry. It seems like you might have a few more options, though. For instance, you could get a new cartridge and keep your old town. That would give you some time for Mint and Tutu to possibly ping, which IS possible, despite what people say. It's happened to me. Over time, they might grow on you, and if not, you could just adopt Marshal, Kyle, and Wolfgang in your new town and make that town your main, without having to adopt them from yourself. No 2DS required! (I would strongly advise you NOT to buy something you'll have to sneak around your mother. Either it will backfire horribly or you will never fully enjoy it because of the nagging, ever-present fear.)
How long have you been trying to get rid of Mint and Tutu? Do you have any idea how many times other villagers have asked to move?
This sounds really frustrating in any case, and I'm sorry. It seems like you might have a few more options, though. For instance, you could get a new cartridge and keep your old town. That would give you some time for Mint and Tutu to possibly ping, which IS possible, despite what people say. It's happened to me. Over time, they might grow on you, and if not, you could just adopt Marshal, Kyle, and Wolfgang in your new town and make that town your main, without having to adopt them from yourself. No 2DS required! (I would strongly advise you NOT to buy something you'll have to sneak around your mother. Either it will backfire horribly or you will never fully enjoy it because of the nagging, ever-present fear.)
How long have you been trying to get rid of Mint and Tutu? Do you have any idea how many times other villagers have asked to move?
UnwrittenTale
Senior Member
You're not going too far. ^^ <3
Unfortunately though I time travel like mad, and I don't think I'd be able to handle going one year without doing it. :c I'm kinda nuts that way. But best wishes with the challenge, though!
