Mafia The Hunger Games Mafia - Game Thread - Endgame - Mafia + Survivor Win
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Well yesterday was a complete and utter disappointment. I thought I had solved the game entirely in terms of finding mafia, with Rune's status being ambiguous, and then I just got a big slap on my face from Silver flipping. Honestly, if Ghost hadn't been defending Silver so much, I would've pushed him as I stated that Silver and Evan were 50% mafia flips, while I believed Gavin at the time to be 90%, due to Silver and Evan obviously not being a team
Glow's slot is 100% town purely from Farobi's behavior. I also fail to see her lying about being hit last night and being mafia, because in that case it means that Farobi's bussing led to mafia KP dropping in 99% of situations and I don't that as how he rolls.
Cleb's slot is 99% town as well. As I have continually stated, Antonio only voted outside of Dedenne and Calamity if he was maf if the two wagons were scum v scum, meaning that Cleb could only be paired with Calamity. Given his vote being the first yesterday and him actively trying to drum up support for Calamity's lynch, I'd say the chances of Cleb being mafia are slim to none
Rune is a third party, and I consider that to be a practical guarentee. I do believe that there is room to doubt that he is not hostile, but I guarentee that he is not mafia.
This leaves me with Ghost, Calamity, and Evan as compatible susses, and I am honestly struggling to think of what the hell is going on between them
Let's start with a couple of options, I'm having an extremely hard time believing that Cleb and Glow are not town. Rune I could see in a small number of worlds, but that's extremely doubtful. Kat would not endorse that play if Rune was mafia, and she would tell a survivor under her wing to claim D1. The trouble instead comes from the fact that I'm having a hard time seeing any combination of the three of them, and yes, I did say yesterday that I strongly townlean Ghost over his actions during the lynch after I had him as 90% scum, but nothing is adding together among the three of them.
Now let's start with Ghost's two possibilities of teammates: Evan and Calamity. I initially said yesterday that Ghost and Evan was not a possibility, but later in this post I'm reminding people of very strong reasoning to dismiss Evan/Calamity as a possibility, so I'm forced to evaluate the role that Ghost played in the Silver lynch.
Ghost arguably played one of the most important roles in the final stages of the Silver lynch, possibly inadvertently, by redirecting my willingness to lynch him onto Silver. In doing that, I was willing to consent myself to a Silver lynch in his stead because before the lynch I stated that I was 90% sure that he was mafia, given that Maple and Evan were not teammates.His defense of Silver made me willing to abandon my crusade against him to go after Silver, and I admit, if he's scum he was really pulled the wool over my eyes in a way that I am really not proud of my performance with that. His logicless defense of Silver made me think that they were a team with 100% certainty and made me abandon my want to get Ghost lynched that day. I would like to pull attention to where Ghost started this though and voted Evan.
And here's where we begin to see problems and would like to draw attention to EVAN, and why Ghost began pushing for his lynch after I claimed that Ghost was 90% scum. Ghost, panicking thinking that he's been caught, begins bussing his partner, Evan, while intentionally making it seem like he's Silver's partner to get a ML off after he's caught. This is definetly a very advanced play for somebody of Ghost's experience, but the circumstances of the situation leave this as the most viable option I face, and Ghost's power plays in wake of realizing that he somehow got me off of his back by making me MORE suspicious of him are especially telling
Definetely way to confident in Maple being town here
Here he attempts to leverage the towncred he's gained through the lynch and his opposition to it by making sure that town follows him the next day in order to ensure the final mislynch needed.
Ghost also voted for a no lynch during the Dedenne wagon yesterday to avoid attention and avoided voting a scum. He has also gone from voting for me earlier today to having me as his only townread
This is almost certainly a pocketing attempt by him. Ghost isn't going to 180 on me so fast, regardless of his experience. As for why he wants me to think he's town because with Cleb distracted with Calamity I'm the only person standing in his way. Simply put, this read is motivated solely by the fact that he wants me on his good side, and stops scumreading me to get that.
Now as for the relationship between Evan and Ghost, I 100% view them as the best team, and Evan/Calamity at least largely infeasible: Evan has been going after Calamity all game, and given his behavior in the Dedenne lynch, I believe that he to is scum.
Let's start first on why Evan isn't teamed with Calamity. As I've stated before, Evan's tell is to whatever he can to get the lynch off of his teammates and onto townies. Let's just say that knowing that Evan/Calamity doesn't look like such a hot prospect to bet on. Evan also voted for Calamity for the Day Two lynch, but he's been going hard after him for awhile
Defending Dedenne
Down for Calamity lynch, doesn't vote him today because he's following the mislynch bandwagon
If there isn't a sustained link between Evan and Ghost, I don't know what there is.
Ghost/Calamity is not a team that I can simply cast out, but Ghost/Evan definetely has a lot of substance behind it
As for Ghost's own behavior outside the D3 lynch, I don't think it looks good either. He hasn't been producing much in terms of reads. D2 he voted no lynch rather than Calamity or Dedenne simply for the purposes of being neutral and "unsure". And I'll say this again even during the 1 ML left phase of Ships, Ghost only voted for no lynch when he was afraid that voting for Punchy would kill him
Tomorrow is probably going to come down to the proposed teams of me and Evan: Evan/Ghost, and me/Calamity, I can sense it. But Evan has no logic, no substance, and no case on his side, because I've been town the entire game. All he has is POE, a long sustained connection to his remaining teammate, and a very suspicious looking vote on Calamity on D2
Glow's slot is 100% town purely from Farobi's behavior. I also fail to see her lying about being hit last night and being mafia, because in that case it means that Farobi's bussing led to mafia KP dropping in 99% of situations and I don't that as how he rolls.
Cleb's slot is 99% town as well. As I have continually stated, Antonio only voted outside of Dedenne and Calamity if he was maf if the two wagons were scum v scum, meaning that Cleb could only be paired with Calamity. Given his vote being the first yesterday and him actively trying to drum up support for Calamity's lynch, I'd say the chances of Cleb being mafia are slim to none
Rune is a third party, and I consider that to be a practical guarentee. I do believe that there is room to doubt that he is not hostile, but I guarentee that he is not mafia.
This leaves me with Ghost, Calamity, and Evan as compatible susses, and I am honestly struggling to think of what the hell is going on between them
Let's start with a couple of options, I'm having an extremely hard time believing that Cleb and Glow are not town. Rune I could see in a small number of worlds, but that's extremely doubtful. Kat would not endorse that play if Rune was mafia, and she would tell a survivor under her wing to claim D1. The trouble instead comes from the fact that I'm having a hard time seeing any combination of the three of them, and yes, I did say yesterday that I strongly townlean Ghost over his actions during the lynch after I had him as 90% scum, but nothing is adding together among the three of them.
Now let's start with Ghost's two possibilities of teammates: Evan and Calamity. I initially said yesterday that Ghost and Evan was not a possibility, but later in this post I'm reminding people of very strong reasoning to dismiss Evan/Calamity as a possibility, so I'm forced to evaluate the role that Ghost played in the Silver lynch.
Ghost arguably played one of the most important roles in the final stages of the Silver lynch, possibly inadvertently, by redirecting my willingness to lynch him onto Silver. In doing that, I was willing to consent myself to a Silver lynch in his stead because before the lynch I stated that I was 90% sure that he was mafia, given that Maple and Evan were not teammates.His defense of Silver made me willing to abandon my crusade against him to go after Silver, and I admit, if he's scum he was really pulled the wool over my eyes in a way that I am really not proud of my performance with that. His logicless defense of Silver made me think that they were a team with 100% certainty and made me abandon my want to get Ghost lynched that day. I would like to pull attention to where Ghost started this though and voted Evan.
This occurred about 15 minutes after I stated that since Evan and Silver weren't a team, it was either Ghost or Calamity
And here's where we begin to see problems and would like to draw attention to EVAN, and why Ghost began pushing for his lynch after I claimed that Ghost was 90% scum. Ghost, panicking thinking that he's been caught, begins bussing his partner, Evan, while intentionally making it seem like he's Silver's partner to get a ML off after he's caught. This is definetly a very advanced play for somebody of Ghost's experience, but the circumstances of the situation leave this as the most viable option I face, and Ghost's power plays in wake of realizing that he somehow got me off of his back by making me MORE suspicious of him are especially telling
What do we see here, one of the reasons why I think it's Ghost/Evan over Ghost/Calamity, an appeal to emotion, an attempt to get town to follow him on the last day where he needs one mislynch to win, and more appeal to emotion. Bottom line, Ghost knows that he's sealed the coffin on Silver, intentionally or not, and is already setting the situation up for a mislynch tomorrow to win it all, and he's already trying to herd town into following him for that mislynch the next day
Definetely way to confident in Maple being town here
Here he attempts to leverage the towncred he's gained through the lynch and his opposition to it by making sure that town follows him the next day in order to ensure the final mislynch needed.
Ghost also voted for a no lynch during the Dedenne wagon yesterday to avoid attention and avoided voting a scum. He has also gone from voting for me earlier today to having me as his only townread
This is almost certainly a pocketing attempt by him. Ghost isn't going to 180 on me so fast, regardless of his experience. As for why he wants me to think he's town because with Cleb distracted with Calamity I'm the only person standing in his way. Simply put, this read is motivated solely by the fact that he wants me on his good side, and stops scumreading me to get that.
Now as for the relationship between Evan and Ghost, I 100% view them as the best team, and Evan/Calamity at least largely infeasible: Evan has been going after Calamity all game, and given his behavior in the Dedenne lynch, I believe that he to is scum.
Let's start first on why Evan isn't teamed with Calamity. As I've stated before, Evan's tell is to whatever he can to get the lynch off of his teammates and onto townies. Let's just say that knowing that Evan/Calamity doesn't look like such a hot prospect to bet on. Evan also voted for Calamity for the Day Two lynch, but he's been going hard after him for awhile
Defending Dedenne
Attacking Calamity
Raising Ghost within his reads and townlocking him for a lack of knowledgethe fact ghostkid didn't even know kayla was dead has me near townlocking him tbh
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Care to detail why?
And that's easy - we lynch you
Defending Dedenne and attacking me for putting Dedenne in the leadwe're gonna lynch the vet claim? Last time you did that, I was legit vet and you were hostile TP...just sayin'
I'm definitely keeping my vote where it is. I vacillated on joining the dedenne train but until there's a CC, I'm inclined to believe dedenne.
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ghostkid, if you believe dedenne, why would you vote to lynch her?
More defense of Dedenne
Down for Calamity lynch, doesn't vote him today because he's following the mislynch bandwagon
Comments on Ghost while not stating that he finds it sus. This is 100% of the top reasons why people should be investigating a Evan/Ghost team right now. Evan comments on Ghost's no logic defense of Silver, but doesn't go to the obvious conclusion of him being sus for defending somebody who EVAN HIMSELF IS VOTING
Townlocking Gavin again, and going after Calamity again. Evan/Cal are 100% not a team. Evan has also gone out of his way since D2 to townread Ghost or dismiss his suspicious behavior as null at Every possible oppertunity
If there isn't a sustained link between Evan and Ghost, I don't know what there is.
Ghost/Calamity is not a team that I can simply cast out, but Ghost/Evan definetely has a lot of substance behind it
As for Ghost's own behavior outside the D3 lynch, I don't think it looks good either. He hasn't been producing much in terms of reads. D2 he voted no lynch rather than Calamity or Dedenne simply for the purposes of being neutral and "unsure". And I'll say this again even during the 1 ML left phase of Ships, Ghost only voted for no lynch when he was afraid that voting for Punchy would kill him
Tomorrow is probably going to come down to the proposed teams of me and Evan: Evan/Ghost, and me/Calamity, I can sense it. But Evan has no logic, no substance, and no case on his side, because I've been town the entire game. All he has is POE, a long sustained connection to his remaining teammate, and a very suspicious looking vote on Calamity on D2
It's simple
Glow is town for Farobi's work in lynching Dedenne
Antonio, if he was mafia, would've voted Calamity in Dedenne v Calamity on D2 unless it was scum v scum, indicating that if he was mafia, he would be teamed Calamity. Cleb voted Calamity so that indicates that is not a team
Rune claims surv, leaving you, Evan, and Calamity
Evan/Calamity is not a team because Calamity as a teammate would be more valuable to Evan, even if he is a goon. Evan would also want the towncred associated with voting Dedenne on D2. When Dedenne claimed vet, Evan's first reaction was to try to redirect the lynch to Calamity. Furthermore, Evan has gone out of his way to sus Calamity throughout this game and has him consistently as one of his top two scumleans. I'm nearly 100% sure they aren't a team
Leaving you my dear friend, you were the one who has done this
The whole point of that is that
1. after redirecting to Evan you redirected to Cala
2. You were setting up the process with which to take control of town through your opposition to Silver being lynched
u rly havent explained y cleb/evan cant be a team imo, its still a possibility
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much more likely than evan/gk imo
Same principle I used to clear Antonio D2 last game, in a scum v town where he is mafia he would have been on the town. In a scum v scum where he is mafia, he would have been outside both wagons. This indicated that if Antonio was scum, it would be only with Calamity(also he took really noob stances that would look to bad for scum to consider the whoel game). Cleb led with the first vote of D3 being on Calamity, indicating that they aren't teamed, clearing him by virtue of having no teammates
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Also Evan started D1 on the Antonio wagon, and ended there as well. Cleb replaced Antonio, so not a likely team there. Especially knowing Evan's behavior
Can we stop with the game fir a sec and reflect on why you thought it was appropriate to use my speech about autism, a very sensitive topic in todays media and society mind you, and use it to say im mafia?
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Can we stop with the game fir a sec and reflect on why you thought it was appropriate to use my speech about autism, a very sensitive topic in todays media and society mind you, and use it to say im mafia?
omk i forgot cleb was antonio, im so sry, ye u might be right nvm
Can we stop with the game fir a sec and reflect on why you thought it was appropriate to use my speech about autism, a very sensitive topic in todays media and society mind you, and use it to say im mafia?
Ok, maybe I should have removed the third part of that one quote because the second part didn't refer to autism and served as adaquate evidence for my point that you were using the Silver lynch to get towncred before it even went through. I just used the full quote for the sake of that I didn't want to waste time removing something that didn't take long to read through
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Rune, who do you think the scum team is?
do u expect me to talk
I feel that I should apoligize for that, but I wasn't refering to your speech on autism at any point in my case
cornimer
grab acorns 'til you're delirious
End of Night 3
Less than half of the tributes were left in the arena, and some tributes were really starting to believe they could make it out. This meant an increase of aggression; Dolby and Gavin got into a dagger fight, and Cleb nearly caused Rune to lose a leg while fighting him over a backpack of supplies. But none of them would meet their fate on this rainy evening.
Glow was filling her water canteen by the river when, suddenly, she was grabbed from behind, lifted into the air and tossed in the rushing current. Normally this wouldn’t be a problem, as she knew how to swim, but the rain was causing the river to run faster and higher than normal. That, combined with the element of surprise, caused Glow to be washed downstream, where she was eventually devoured by a crocodile.
Glow's Role PM said:
District 11 Tribute (1-shot bulletproof Veteran)
Back in District 11, you lived in poverty, and often got into fights defending your family and few belongings. It’s going to take more than a few punches to knock you out of this game.
You essentially have two night lives. One hit will have no effect on you, while the second will kill you.
You win when all threats against the town have been eliminated.
Day 4 has begun. I am considering shortening it to 24 hours due to the number of players left, please let me know if you have any objections.
Thanks Ryumia for the idea of using images of the fallen
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Well, in other news, I interviewed for a summer job at a camp for people with low-functioning autism and got it today
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All our blues are prob dead knowing Ness and Toads
Townie
I have no objections to a mass at this point
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