Mafia TBT Mafia XV: The Siren's Call (Game Over/Mafia & Third Party Win!)

[Jeremy]

We should vote for Sataric, he has defended Dolby and agreed with Karen on lynching me. I feel like scum chat just decided that they wanted to lynch me. If so, Minties and Karla stand out as well.

Another common trait between people who I think are mafia is that they want to lynch you thieves.

 

[Byngo]

lol what a waste of a roleblock.

 

[Cory]

lol what a waste of a roleblock.

inb4 the person who i am stealing from has the diamond

 

[Chris]

The voting dead line was 11PM last night, Karen missed it due to SATs, Tina doesn't give a **** and takes no prisoners

Aren't you supposed to get a warning?

No I got a warning day 1 stating I had to vote or id be mod killed, voting is mandatory. I like her system, the amount of people who don't vote is beyond a joke now, unless for specific reasons that Tina will deem an excuse such as my food poisoning last week.

Had I been here to make the N4 post myself Karen would have been modkilled before she could have even explained why she hadn't voted. It would be unfair to the other players if I treated her any differently.

 

[ryan88]

I thought we couldn't block mafia kills

 

[Cory]

I thought we couldn't block mafia kills

yes but they could have other actions.

 

[Alice]

Wow. Well, that's one way to get rid of scum. I guess I shouldn't surprised that I haven't been shot yet. It seems that now that mafia knows I'm the vet they're avoiding wasting time on me. Doesn't help that we might've given them ideas.

 

[Sataric]

We should vote for Sataric, he has defended Dolby and agreed with Karen on lynching me. I feel like scum chat just decided that they wanted to lynch me. If so, Minties and Karla stand out as well.

I barely defended Dolby - We've been over that before. I have also disagreed (and momentarily argued) with Karen for pretty much the entire game, and she tried to get me lynched too earlier, but I guess you failed to notice that. I am more and more convinced that you are the mastermind behind the Mafia operation for every post you make.

It's obvious that you aren't green, from your playstyle, and everyone should have been able to figure that out by now with half the game claiming already. I wrote down "Scum or Blue?" in my notes on you like a week ago and yet you're still alive by now. It makes no sense if you aren't Mafia - You should have been shot already. I'm pretty sure at least some players have been able to figure out my role as well at this point. I've dropped several hints. Maybe Mafia did and that's why I'm still alive, since it isn't very powerful.

Anyways, now with 2 Mafia down, we should think extra carefully about who to lynch. Not just jump headfirst into it before the night is even over, and rush over any kind of reasoning and discussion taking place. The fact that you encourage such a thing is very anti-town as well. I'll probably be voting for you if I survive the night.

 

[Jeremy]

Karen also tried to get Dolby lynched. That's how she plays mafia. And I'm going to vote for you when day starts, so you're probably going to want to role claim if others follow me. Otherwise, I'd be happy lynching Minties as well.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

Spoiler: Some Karen posts

One kill? Assuming 3KP + 1 third party killer role, there's still a kill missing. Even without the third party role it's a HUGE coincidence that the docs saved the right people.

This makes me believe that perhaps mafia has less KP than we think. Is it possible that somehow mafia have more actions in compensation for a lower KP? It would make sense if that were the case. 5 scum, and maybe only 2KP? It would make more sense if that were the case in both scenarios (with or without third party killer).

Also, @Sataric: Highly unlikely that town has roleblockers imo. And noob question, what's this Arsonist role that you speak of?

I'm in class right now but I will post later, Lauren has been posting weirdly imo from my experience with playing with her. When I was mafia and she was town she was a lot less aggressive, instead sitting back a bit more and making interesting posts every so often. That was a while back though and I don't know if her playstyle has changed or something but I will be keeping an eye on her.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Also. A bunch of people haven't posted for a while. I think that's Cariad, jello, alice and alise? Please post your thoughts about what's going on

Yui is up for lynch just because of her role name? Bs.

Yeah this is a no PM game so tbh I can't vote for Ashtot or Dolby because their playstyles may have changed or whatever. I'll give it a day or so when more posts accumulate and hopefully it'll be easier to see what's going on. I think I'm going to vote for Cariad simply because in all your responses you keep saying you'll try to contribute and you know you're playing bad right now, well then you should actually try to play better but I don't see that happening. I wouldn't be surprised if you were scum trying to slip through by trying to stay neutral through the game.

Lol



And apparently Jeremy tends to contribute more later on in the game

Well that's stupid. Mafia most likely has 1KP so they probably have all the fancy role stuff including a DOCTOR

LETS TELL MAFIA WHO WE ARE PLANNING TO KILL SO THEY CAN PROTECT THAT PERSON yeah guys!!!

Day 2 Action Plan

Dad's Death:
This, to me, was almost as confusing as oath's death N1. Dad pretty much claimed in the thread that he was a townie:



Maybe they thought Dad was blue claiming townie OR maybe they believe blue roles are not a huge threat, otherwise they surely would have killed someone like Ryan88 by now (which I will get to later). Something about Dad must have made them kill him. But why?

Possibility 1:
Dad was right on track with all his suspicions and due to this they found him a threat. Here is the last part of his long post:



Notice the the last part where he includes Dolby as a minor suspicion and later this escalates into a major suspicion that he voted for Dolby yesterday before switching to Crystal. This is where my suspicion on Dolby comes in.

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Possibility 2:
Due to the large amount of people Dad called out, mafia killed him to cast suspicion on many people. Perhaps he was wrong with all his suspicions.





Notice how he keeps asserting that Cariad is probably town. This is where my other suspicion on Cariad comes in.

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Main Suspects:

Dolby
Summary: He was called out by several users Day 2 including Karla and Jer (several others but slightly on a time crunch now to go back and look).

I started feeling something weird about him when he jumped at the opportunity for the vig to shoot one of the thieves: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3736522&viewfull=1#post3736522

Karla's plan made sense and I get that most people would agree to it. But so quickly after the post? I doubt he had enough time to actually think about it, the consequences and the benefits of it. He probably read "VIG KILL THIEF" and naturally, as scum, agreed to it straight away.

Karla also bought up some good points before: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3733118#post3733118

If we lynch Dolby and he flips red it probably means that Dad was on the right track with his suspicions.

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Cariad
Summary: Called out several times by many different people. Nearly got lynched Day 2.

IMO we should have lynched Cariad instead of Crystal yesterday. At least Crystal posted and tried to contribute. Cariad has just been throwing out excuse after excuse for not posting. She also claimed blue. So why hasn't mafia killed her yet? She did this weird copy-quote-replies-in-bold thing so I have to just put links:

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3725743#post3725743
http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?216580-TBT-Mafia-XV-The-Siren-s-Call-DAY-THREE&p=3735352#post3735352

If we kill Cariad and she flips red it probably means that Dad was not right about his suspicions, and we could conclude mafia killed him to frame different people.

-----

I think by killing either one of them we can find out why mafia killed Dad.

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Quick Minor Suspicions:
Ryan88: why isn't he dead yet if he's blue?
JellofishXD: where are you?

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Tomorrow, I have school again so probably back to not so long posts. I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for. I have a gut feeling Cariad might be the better choice because Dolby is good if he's a blue role and dangerous when he's scum (so high risk for us and honestly we're not in a good situation right now, we need all the good town players), but there's some evidence stacked up against him so I'm not too sure. I might have to check past games when I have time to make my decision.

- - - Post Merge - - -

I see you guys viewing the thread...thoughts anyone?

I also did name the urls but for some reason it didn't work.

Tbh I remember playing with alise in a mini mafia game (i'm a cop you idiot i think it was called), she was mafia, it was also a no-pm game but she was acting a lot differently than she is now. Maybe that game was a lot smaller, her play style changed or her computer has problems or something but she's always sort of clueless like she is from what I remember (no offense) so I'm thinking that she's town right now.

Yui Z I don't remember much, I think the only time I played with her was her first game, but she has been slipping under the radar like has Dad said.

Minties everyone is concerned about right now, I don't know if she's busy or something but I do remember her raging like every game I've played with her. I can't remember if she was mafia or town so I'll look back into that.

And Cariad, well I have stated before why I want to lynch her... in a way she's sort of like Jello I guess? Not contributing anything and just sliding by. Actually I just realized a lot of us have been picking a lot more on Cariad and there has been less attention on Jello the past day. I wonder if that's why Jello is not speaking up, because she totally managed to slip by yesterday.

- - - Post Merge - - -



I thought power roles can't perform an action on the same person two days in a row.

Yeah well the fact that we haven't hit scum so far means that we're doing something wrong. Hypothetical scum team jello, Cariad, yui, Dolby, Alice/alise gg
But yes I understand what you're getting at. There's the thief problem too.

Btw Tom, are you going to reveal the Kallie thing or waiting for Sataric to say it?

Now that you say that, I remember Dad saying something about Jeremy's playstyle:



But yeah. Feel free to question me or whatever, but I'll be gone for about 4 hours before I can reply.

I also wanted to say that I find Sataric overly pro-town it's beginning to feel scummy to me. Or maybe he's always like that. When I have time I'll check back on Minties, alise, Yui and Sataric in past games.

One scum down but holy crap Jello never shot. I think we could have won the game by now if she actually did something. Yes extended ban please.

With the death of Dolby it should be much easier to find the other scum. I think I have two theories on who they may be.

#1: Jeremy
Let me bring up this post again from Dad:


Now, with his new handy dandy spreadsheet (certainly unusual and new), I can already see people beginning to lay off him a tad bit and moving to other targets. I don't recall Jeremy putting so much effort into mafia. If it's not because Town is at mylo or something and in a desperate situation, I'd say its because things are looking bleak for his scum team. Like others have said before, the spreadsheet sure does help us out but does it harm his scum team? Probably not.

#2: Minties
I reckon she's scum as well. After reading past games and seeing some clever scum moves, I bet Minties and Jer are bashing each other out - not enough to lynch the other, but enough as a safety net in case the other flips. I also noticed another thing about Minties. If you look back at her posts, she starts with some casual sentence/excuse such as "Checking In", "Just got back from work", and she does the same thing in Sunleth mafia where she was godfather. I haven't had the time to check back at games where she was town if she does the same thing, though. Another thing that stuck out to me is how she started posting angrily AFTER she got called out as not being angry enough. Now, I don't know if this is a coincidence because she really was angry, or if she tried being angry just so she'd "stay in Town character". I say if Jeremy flips red, then Minties is probably red too.

Minor Suspicion: KarlaKGB/Sataric
I have a weird feeling about Karla. He's playing differently as he usually does but I can't seem to find the words for it. I guess the right term is cruising by? He definitely doesn't seem town to be but at the same time not scum. I would say a third party role, but there has been no extra kills and there's already the 3 thieves so it seems unlikely. I'm definitely going to keep an eye on him though. Also I find it extremely strange how Sataric has kept defending and supporting Karla. What's going on with you two? Both scum?

Minor Suspicion: Yui Z

Seems like to me that this post was mainly 1) for Yui to be "safe" if Dolby happened to flip scum, since "mafia would have believed his claim straight away and not question it", and 2) to poke out counter claims so her scum team won't waste a shot on that person. I think I might be reading into this too much though, but the wording really makes me feel uncomfortable.

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Alise: I really think that the way she's posting is in line with her character, but I can sorta see why you guys are scum reading her now. But I honestly don't think she is just by comparing her posting style.

There's a bunch of reasoning for you, Jeremy. If I had reiterated any of that to make my case "better" you would have come around and said oh Karen is just repeating what other players have said. So I'm just trying to add some of my opinion to the matter, and that added to existing evidence = my suspicion.

I already quoted why I voted for Dolby in the first place. I was mad that my post was being ignored (at the time) and I was pretty suspicious of Dolby. I was going to change my vote the next day but then the evidence came up so
I didn't need to change it.

Natty I will look at your case on Ashtot later it's getting late here.

Actually my role PM says Brandon The Carpenter (Townie) without the vanilla flavor text either. So I'm going to believe Yui's claim here for now.

I still don't think alise is scum but honestly I can't understand some of her posts so I'll look back and reread.

had a practice sat test and completely forgot to vote before taking the test @..@

not sure when the deadline ended but oops

Anyways. Voted for Jeremy because he's being inconsistent. According to his so called list, Sataric is first followed by Minties. Now, I know that opinions can change with new posts/evidence/whatnot, but it seems to me that he's been targeting easier players such as myself and Alise. He hasn't been pushing for Sataric or Minties as much. So yeah.

lesson learned alise don't make jokes or people will lynch you...

For tomorrow I'm thinking Jeremy or Minties (and Ashtot is also possible but I want to look through his posts again, Natty has two pretty good posts on him), I also want the connection between Sataric and Karla explained, or when I have time tonight look through and figure out whats going on between them.

I think they might be twins (isn't there a thing like where two townies know they're both townies, I remember it in a past mafia game) or maybe both scum. I'm too lazy to edit Sataric's long posts for the sections where he backs up Karla, but I think it's pretty obvious something's going on...don't know if its a good thing or bad thing for us.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Oh man it's night 4. That means by the end of tonight the thieves will have stolen from 15 people (incl. night 0), and they're well on their way to the 7 treasures...I think concerned about their win con so I don't think a vig shot on a thief would be a bad idea. Like other people have said before. They lied about their role so why not their win con?

Going back and reviewing Karen's posts, it's painfully obvious now Karen was hinting at being Maf and possibly even doctor (could be stretching this though).

This makes me believe that perhaps mafia has less KP than we think. Is it possible that somehow mafia have more actions in compensation for a lower KP? It would make sense if that were the case. 5 scum, and maybe only 2KP? It would make more sense if that were the case in both scenarios (with or without third party killer).

A few quick skim notes:

• Small accusation of Lauren
• Small defense of Yui-Z
• "... can't vote for Ashtot or Dolby ... vote Cariad
• Showed increased interest with the thieves
• Dolby v Cariad vote Dolby
• Jeremy v Minties vote Jeremy ft the Minor Sus Stylin of KarlaKGB/Sataric and Yui-Z

There's a few other posts that are kinda interesting, but they're only like five pages back so reading isn't going to hurt you.

Lauren, Jeremy, Minties, KarlaKGB, Sataric, Yui-Z, Ashtot and then members of the inactive gang all deemed suspicious by Karen. With the majority of inactive players gone, only Alice remains and we're mostly certain Alice is indeed a Veteran.

So essentially we've still been left with the unknown list minus Karen:

Yui-Z
Lauren
Jeremy
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric
Ashtot
Tom
Minties

Disclosure: I don't think Karen ever voiced concerns over myself, instead we only seemed to agree on some issues. Take that for what you will. So unless I missed something, I was never brought up as a sus person by Karen.

 

[Byngo]

Going back and reviewing Karen's posts, it's painfully obvious now Karen was hinting at being Maf and possibly even doctor (could be stretching this though).



A few quick skim notes:

• Small accusation of Lauren
• Small defense of Yui-Z
• "... can't vote for Ashtot or Dolby ... vote Cariad
• Showed increased interest with the thieves
• Dolby v Cariad vote Dolby
• Jeremy v Minties vote Jeremy ft the Minor Sus Stylin of KarlaKGB/Sataric and Yui-Z

There's a few other posts that are kinda interesting, but they're only like five pages back so reading isn't going to hurt you.

Lauren, Jeremy, Minties, KarlaKGB, Sataric, Yui-Z, Ashtot and then members of the inactive gang all deemed suspicious by Karen. With the majority of inactive players gone, only Alice remains and we're mostly certain Alice is indeed a Veteran.

So essentially we've still been left with the unknown list minus Karen:

Yui-Z
Lauren
Jeremy
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric
Ashtot
Tom
Minties

Disclosure: I don't think Karen ever voiced concerns over myself, instead we only seemed to agree on some issues. Take that for what you will. So unless I missed something, I was never brought up as a sus person by Karen.

I was looking through her posts and the thing that stood out to me is how Karen kept saying she'd look through my posts about Ashtot and through his posts as well but she never did. I don't know if that makes me more or less suspicious of Ashtot. :|

- - - Post Merge - - -

also I'm inclined to think Jeremy is innocent because Karen was pushing him for a lynch. And it's not just that she voted for him because everyone else was, like she was the only player that voted for him yesterday.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Also has anyone noticed that it's a lunar eclipse?? I'm probably overthinking things but I wonder if something different will happen tonight... I guess it could just be for flavor. Idk

 

[Trent the Paladin]

I was looking through her posts and the thing that stood out to me is how Karen kept saying she'd look through my posts about Ashtot and through his posts as well but she never did. I don't know if that makes me more or less suspicious of Ashtot. :|

- - - Post Merge - - -

also I'm inclined to think Jeremy is innocent because Karen was pushing him for a lynch. And it's not just that she voted for him because everyone else was, like she was the only player that voted for him yesterday.

Yeah I got that feeling as well, not to mention the minor suspicion on Lauren and a "more detailed" post to come never came. So the problem from here is how we want to approach this. Karen was the first to vote Dolby and the second to actually push for Dolby. Was she hoping that by leading the charge on Dolby would garner enough trust to lead a bandwagon on Jeremy or?

Out of curiosity, how many other "townies" all recieved -rolename here- (townie) in their PM? I remember a few people mentioned that.

- - - Post Merge - - -

I think it might just be flavor text Natty due to the mid-night modkill.

 

[Lauren]

I hope someone mutates hahahah TWILIGHT .. That's silly.

Yes I personally have not felt suspicious of Jeremy what so ever this whole game.

I didn't even know she'd made a case on me haha... Oops thanks tom. Well natty I'm inclined to believe you on the Ashtot situation. I could see with his eratoc behaviour and what not but day is yet to come and everyone I felt suspious of is dead. Sataric I have said opinions of on various occasions. I'll voice more when I finish work.

 

[Ashtot]

Why hasn't Sataric or Jeremy died yet is my question.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

Why hasn't Sataric or Jeremy died yet is my question.

Minus Cariad, all the targets so far have been the vocal.

 

[Byngo]

Why hasn't Sataric or Jeremy died yet is my question.

Why haven't you died yet?

 

[Cory]

Why haven't you died yet?

Because the vig didn't shoot anyone.

 

[Ashtot]

Because the vig didn't shoot anyone.

This also what have I really done, I mean I've given little bits of somewhat relevant information but haven't really done anything, they would have no reason to kill me.

 

[Byngo]

they would have no reason to kill me.

Of course your teammates wouldn't want to kill you.

 

[Ashtot]

Of course your teammates wouldn't want to kill you.

I dunno in the past when I was scum I tried to get my teammate killed because he was being a dingus.