Strict line up vs nook mile tickets, oh numbers

[Hobowire]

So I'm going with an all deer line up and currently have ten villagers. There is 397 unique villagers out there. Assuming no influencing variables and each villager had an equal chance of showing up.

Villager #1: 10/387 or 2.58% so approx 39nmts
Villager #2: 9/387 or 2.33% so approx 43nmts
Villager #3: 8/387 or 2.07% so approx 48nmts
Villager #4: 7/387 or 1.81% so approx 55nmts
Villager #5: 6/387 or 1.55% so approx 65nmts
Villager #6: 5/387 or 1.29% so approx 78nmts
Villager #7: 4/387 or 1.03% so approx 97nmts
Villager #8: 3/387 or 0.78% so approx 128nmts
Villager #9: 2/387 or 0.52% so approx 192nmts
Villager #10: 1/387 or 0.25% so approx 387nmts

This is without the same villager showing up again during the hunt. So with repeats.... Where can I buy nmts???

 

[SpaceTokki77]

So I'm going with an all deer line up and currently have ten villagers. There is 397 unique villagers out there. Assuming no influencing variables and each villager had an equal chance of showing up.

Villager #1: 10/387 or 2.58% so approx 39nmts
Villager #2: 9/387 or 2.33% so approx 43nmts
Villager #3: 8/387 or 2.07% so approx 48nmts
Villager #4: 7/387 or 1.81% so approx 55nmts
Villager #5: 6/387 or 1.55% so approx 65nmts
Villager #6: 5/387 or 1.29% so approx 78nmts
Villager #7: 4/387 or 1.03% so approx 97nmts
Villager #8: 3/387 or 0.78% so approx 128nmts
Villager #9: 2/387 or 0.52% so approx 192nmts
Villager #10: 1/387 or 0.25% so approx 387nmts

This is without the same villager showing up again during the hunt. So with repeats.... Where can I buy nmts???

There are a lot of shops (like mine) that sell NMT for 1 TBT each
You would be able to buy a good amount with your TBT!

 

[Underneath The Stars]

they go very cheap now on nook's crannys subforum. i bought 200+ nmts for tbt but actually ended up getting fuchsia on 20th ticket, who is a deer

 

[xTech]

Looking at those numbers you'd save like 1000 NMT just buying them off other people haha. If you're actually hunting to get them all naturally, you're officially crazy tbh. I can give you a measly 50 tomorrow (bout to go work) and I'm sure some others can help out as well for gracing us with your builds all the time :^)

 

[Hobowire]

Lol.. rhetorical backfire . I'll buy some when I burn thru mine.

 

[Nefarious]

When looking for a species rather than specific villager, you have better odds, as island hopping rolls for species first. So it’s 1/33 (3.030303...%) every time.

It should take less NMTs, unless you keep getting rolled horses non-stop.

 

[Hobowire]

When looking for a species rather than specific villager, you have better odds, as island hopping rolls for species first. So it’s 1/33 (3.030303...%) every time.

It should take less NMTs, unless you keep getting rolled horses non-stop.

If I could roll Raymond everytime it would fund this whole hunt. Lol.

 

[SirSean]

Man this game is more complicated than I realized lol

 

[Hobowire]

villager #4: 120NMTs and I ended with Ketchup.

 

[xTech]

You need to ketch-up to villager #5 now *seinfield theme plays in the background*. Also ketchup isn't a deer, unless he's hiding in a duck costume, so why did you end up keeping him? If you're just gonna tell me he looks like santa then I guess you really are insane.

Edit: Unless, y'know, it was just an update for us and you didn't keep ketchup, and I am really stupid hahaha

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

I’m taking advantage that I LIKE some of the villagers in the base house so I’ll be taking advantage of the initial limit to peppy, normal and lazy villagers. I’m still stocking up on NMT on Arctin tho.

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2020

Plus, I thought it rolled species before villager?

 

[skarmoury]

When looking for a species rather than specific villager, you have better odds, as island hopping rolls for species first. So it’s 1/33 (3.030303...%) every time.

It should take less NMTs, unless you keep getting rolled horses non-stop.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there 35 species? :0
Either way you'd probably need at least 35 NMT for every 1 deer, so that's 350 NMT. Though I do suggest going over that number since I know people who've gone over hundreds and thousands of tickets just to hunt one specific villager (which will be your case as you burn through the deer list).

 

[Hobowire]

You need to ketch-up to villager #5 now *seinfield theme plays in the background*. Also ketchup isn't a deer, unless he's hiding in a duck costume, so why did you end up keeping him? If you're just gonna tell me he looks like santa then I guess you really are insane.

Edit: Unless, y'know, it was just an update for us and you didn't keep ketchup, and I am really stupid hahaha

i settled. needed his photo so a little hiccup

 

[Nefarious]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there 35 species? :0
Either way you'd probably need at least 35 NMT for every 1 deer, so that's 350 NMT. Though I do suggest going over that number since I know people who've gone over hundreds and thousands of tickets just to hunt one specific villager (which will be your case as you burn through the deer list).

You’re likely right. No doubt I missed a few. So that would change it to 2.85% each time. The rate won’t change as long as there’s at least one deer available. So you can have 9 deers already and you’ll still have the same chance at finding another.

 

[Hobowire]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there 35 species? :0
Either way you'd probably need at least 35 NMT for every 1 deer, so that's 350 NMT. Though I do suggest going over that number since I know people who've gone over hundreds and thousands of tickets just to hunt one specific villager (which will be your case as you burn through the deer list).

well there are 10 deer altogether. 397 villagers altogether. not every species have equal amount of villagers and starting with 10 villager that are not deer put me at 387. The numbers are rough approximation.

edit: i didn't realized the quote.

 

[Your Local Wild Child]

well there are 10 deer altogether. 397 villagers altogether. not every species have equal amount of villagers and starting with 10 villager that are not deer put me at 387. The numbers are rough approximation.

It rolls for species first, then it rolls for a specific villager. That’s why octopi are surprisingly common despite there only being 3 in total.

 

[Hobowire]

It rolls for species first, then it rolls for a specific villager. That’s why octopi are surprisingly common despite there only being 3 in total.

that cant be right if it's roll for species first. because i'm on my 4th villager and i just spent 120nmts. If that the case likelihood is that i would hit a deer 3or 4 times?

 

[tajikey]

I've found that when I'm going on a villager hunt, I run into a lot of the same species. Here's to hoping your RNG favors deer.

 

[Nefarious]

that cant be right if it's roll for species first. because i'm on my 4th villager and i just spent 120nmts. If that the case likelihood is that i would hit a deer 3or 4 times?

It’s confirmed by datamining that species are rolled first. 2.85% is still a low chance.

 

[Hobowire]

I've found that when I'm going on a villager hunt, I run into a lot of the same species. Here's to hoping your RNG favors deer.

i noticed that. i ran into a lot of bunnies this run.