Starting to think that villager move-outs are random after all... (Is the datamining correct?)

[cheezu]

So I know that most of the datamining has proven to be correct up until this point but it doesn't seem to be accurate when it comes to villagers moving out.
I've been pretty much ignoring Erik and Hazel for the past few weeks... The only few times I interacted with them was when they were crafting but they haven't asked to move out once.
I haven't been gifting them anything or talking to them ever since the datamine came out suggesting that lower friendship increases villager move-outs. All this time I was convinced villagers asked to move out at random much like in NL but the datamine suggested otherwise...
Now, obviously since I've been consistent with ignoring these two villagers, our friendship level should be significantly lower than with those whom I shower with gifts and interact with on a daily basis.
But today, I have Lily wanting to move out - that too, right after gifting me her photo yesterday!
Something doesn't seem to add up here... Has anyone else experienced this?

 

[Sharksheep]

Villagers with lower friendship are more likely to move out. You can still get bad rng. I was trying to get a villager that has given me a photo to move out and it kept picking villagers I had low friendship with

 

[HollySeeker]

I don't understand it either. I had Megan ask to move out last week but said no, TT back a few days and forward back to where I was to buy turnips and then Bangle asked to move out. My friendship level with Bangle is high and she recently gave me her photo. Then today Margie asked to move out. I've spoken with them all frequently and the ones I speak to less haven't asked

 

[DeltaLoraine]

I feel like it's a probablility thing, so even though the chances of moving out are "high" for a certain villager, the algorithm can still pick anyone to move. That's my thoughts on it anyway.

 

[minimoon]

I don't think it's a sign the data mining is wrong, but I have bad luck with this as well. It always seems to be my besties that want to move.

 

[cheezu]

Yeah, I guess I just don't understand it enough.
But given that I have 10 villagers with 2 I hardly interact with, I thought it would be much more likely that they'd ask to move out before the others.

 

[dahlialia]

Each villagers chance to move out in general is
“based on friendship and calculated by

floor((300 - a) / 10) - r

a = average friendship they have with all island residents
r = amount of residents with >200 friendship”

When there is a higher chance of something, it doesn’t mean the lower chance never happens.

 

[Stalfos]

The friendship levels sets the odds, but it's still down to luck who get's picked.

 

[telluric]

Friendship affects the odds, but can be somewhat minute... Like, it does vary, but a low friendship villager may have an 11% chance of being selected for the move-out bubble while someone with high friendship is 8% (for example). So ignoring other villagers alone doesn't increase the chance, but increasing friendship with other villagers except for them should help, which I see you've done. Just continue as you are, you just have unfavorable RNG.

 

[cheezu]

Friendship affects the odds, but can be somewhat minute... Like, it does vary, but a low friendship villager may have an 11% chance of being selected for the move-out bubble while someone with high friendship is 8% (for example). So ignoring other villagers alone doesn't increase the chance, but increasing friendship with other villagers except for them should help, which I see you've done. Just continue as you are, you just have unfavorable RNG.

So I suppose it's not something that makes it WAY more likely for them to move then.
I guess that's what I was a bit confused about. With 8 or 11%, it's more more or less unnoticeable especially if you don't TT.

 

[Etown20]

I don’t know what the percentage breakdown is, but that’s what I’d suspect as well - it’s probably not a huge difference and so if you are trying to get only 2 out of 10 out, it may not be much better than a 20% chance each time.

Best thing is probably just to let the thought bubble transfer when you are due for a move out, but that could take several days as well.

 

[Miss Misty]

I don’t know what the percentage breakdown is, but that’s what I’d suspect as well - it’s probably not a huge difference and so if you are trying to get only 2 out of 10 out, it may not be much better than a 20% chance each time.

Best thing is probably just to let the thought bubble transfer when you are due for a move out, but that could take several days as well.

Well, the percentages are slightly more than that (5% vs 20% when I ran my villagers through a calculator), but that's the general gist. Personally I find the bubble transfer method more reliable than going based off of friendship values. It's nice to know the math behind it, but ultimately at the end of the day, RNG is going to do what it wants.

 

[marea]

Maybe it is like the first camper thing. You should get a smug as your first and it happened to most players but then there were also some people who got other personalities instead. So i guess maybe there are some instances where it could just go random?