Or is the Thonky guide a liar? There's been two times now that I've had two genuine items according to the Thonky guide, or are there mistakes in there as well?
I've never been steered wrong by the Thonky guide. I did have on occasion times when all four of Redd's items were fake. I thought it was always 3 fake and 1 real, so ...* shrug ?!?*
I've seen two genuine items in Redd's before. I had already bought one of the real ones before.
Unfortunately, because I was dumb, I didn't buy either of them.
I've also seen two genuine items, but no more than that. I have read stories from people saying that they've seen even more genuine items, though! If I remember correctly, the Thonky guide has pictures of the real-life artwork, so you can be assured that they're correct. I figure that it might have to do with your item luck for the day, but it could just be completely random.
I was wondering about this when I noticed one day Redd had two genuine art for sale. Ended up double checking on bidoofcrossing's post to make sure whether or not Thonky's guide was correct.
I have 3 genuine pieces and 1 fake on his visit to my island today. I think whether something is real or fake depends primarily on what pieces of artwork he is selling each visit (since some can ONLY be real), which is likely determined first, and then if the artwork sold can be fake, another calculation must be done (perhaps way more likely for an artwork that can be fake to be fake, hence the possibility of ALL artwork being sold on one visit being fake), and the final results are what you see in the store.
Screenshot attached to prove I've got 3 real and 1 fake today.
The artwork he's selling are: the real Graceful painting (white hair tag visible, plus the lady would take up far more of the image if it were fake), the Dynamic painting (only ever real), the Proper painting (only ever real), and the fake Quaint painting (the water pouring out is way too much compared to the real one).