How Frequent are Move-Out Requests?

I've noticed that a lot of the people reporting longer wait times between requests seem to be TTers. I'm hearing 2-3 weeks from people who time travel and 5-14 days from people who don't, generally. I wonder if that's a coincidence?

I've noticed that unlike past games, neither of the move-out requests I've gotten have been at the start of the day/session. Both times I've only seen a villager with the thought bubble after a few hours of gameplay that day, and they were both villagers I'd already talked to several times that day before they started thinking about moving. So I wonder what triggers the appearance of that bubble, if it's no longer the first thing on their mind when you load up the game that day. Huck asked to move after I returned home from a mystery tour, and Bubbles asked to move today after I returned from visiting my boyfriend's island. It seems like putting more hours into a single day slightly increases the chance that someone will want to move that day, especially if you're doing things that prompt changes in your villagers' locations and activities, like "reloading" your island by leaving and coming back. So maybe TTers, who are less likely to play several hours on a single in-game day, aren't seeing thought bubbles that might have generated if they'd been playing longer sessions or more than once per in-game day during those times?

I don't care at all whether people TT or not, just something I've noticed! I'd like to figure out what makes the game decide when a villager will think about moving.
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Yeah, I don't know. I've been in quarantine, so I've been playing 3-4 hours per in-game day, and about 10 hours per real-life day, even when I was TTing. So I don't think that play time affects it much, sinch I really was spending a lot of time per in-game day. Here's when I got my requests to move:

First two in-game weeks, TTing: No requests (could have been because I had fewer than 7 villagers).
Second two in-game week, TTing: One request.
TT back to the actual date, play in real time (no TTing) for 1.5 weeks: One request.

As for when during the day I got the request, the first one was as soon as I started the game up (one villager told me another was thinking of moving and I should go talk to them within 5 minutes of starting the game).

The second request I got after maybe an hour of playing when a villager had a thought bubble over their head.

So I don't necessarily think you have to play the game for several hours before someone asks to move. It seems to just be luck/RNG.
 
They don't ping anymore. It's the thought bubble that signals wanting to move. That bubble also signals other things, though. I really want Hazel to leave (I like her, but I've had her before and I want a fresh experience) so I would always get excited when I saw her thinking, but she always just wanted to give me an item or sell me something. One time she gave me FOUR DIFFERENT SHIRTS in one evening play session, like an unsubtle hint that she hated my outfit or something, haha.
Maple tried to move out today and she had the thought bubble above her head but it also turned into a text box saying "What to do...?" All the other times I've seen a villager with a thought bubble they've just given me a gift so maybe the text is specific to moving requests?

Dang I didn't know that. I maybe could've moved out Rodeo for someone yesterday then! I'll keep an eye on that from now on then. Wait does this mean that he's gonna move out without saying anything now?
 
i believe ive had 2 ask to move out in about a week and a half, convinced the first one to stay but told the second one to enjoy her new life, as i wasnt particullary attached to her and i wanted to see who i would get next
 
I only ever really experienced one (but I wanted to keep her) and I’ve been playing the game since launch (I don’t TT though). I’m actually getting impatient. Everytime I see Ed thinking I’m like yyyyaaasssss and then he’ll end up just giving me a gift instead. Boo. ☹
 
I've had one request so far - from Beau, so of course I refused. I keep hovering near Wendy hoping she'll say she's leaving haha. I have Maddie in the campsite on her second item so hopefully not long.
 
Maple tried to move out today and she had the thought bubble above her head but it also turned into a text box saying "What to do...?" All the other times I've seen a villager with a thought bubble they've just given me a gift so maybe the text is specific to moving requests?
Sadly I don't think thats the case. I had Mac pacing around with the 'What to do' text above and he just gave me an item he said he couldn't find a home for.
 
2 requests since i started the game, and i have 9 villagers only. the first one asked when i had 8. so it’s definitely random but yes, it’s much rare compared to new leaf. i kept them for now tho, it’s too early for me to let go some of them.
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I only ever really experienced one (but I wanted to keep her) and I’ve been playing the game since launch (I don’t TT though). I’m actually getting impatient. Everytime I see Ed thinking I’m like yyyyaaasssss and then he’ll end up just giving me a gift instead. Boo. ☹

LMAOOOO
 
My experience is I have played since launch day on the 20th (with no time travel & no amiibo use) & have so far had one villager on the 5th April ask to leave. So that was after 16 days play for me.

It was a villager I have barely spoken to & I was happy to agree. If it makes any difference, he was my 5th to move in (& a random move in).
 
I've only had one request since I started playing on launch day, and that was a villager I was talking to exactly once a day and ignoring every other time I saw him. I was happy to let him go, of course, as it was chops
 
I've been playing since release and haven't TTed. My first move out thought bubble was April 5th and it was Victoria (I had 9 villagers at the time), I let her move. I'm now up to 10 villagers again now, so hopefully someone else decides to move out.

On a side note, I haven't had a campsite visitor for over a week and a half now. The spawn rates must be super low
 
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Could it have something to do with the number of villagers - I remember in NL, if your town was full, someone would ping to move around every 4-5 days if I'm not mistaken.
So far only Wolfgang asked me to move and he moved in recently too - I denied because I wanted to think about it more but now I wish I had traded him.

I was also wondering if the thought bubble above the head is gonna be the first thing you see when they walk around town after starting up your game or could it potentially happen later throughout the day (as I said, I only had it happen once so can't really comment on that).
 
I've been playing since launch, and only had one move out request, either last week or the week before. It was one of my 2 starter villagers (Renee) who I speak to a lot. I denied her request
 
On a side note, I haven't had a campsite visitor for over a week and a half now. The spawn rates must be super low

Yeah, I haven’t had any since my forced campsite move-in on the 28th. Not even one.

Could it have something to do with the number of villagers - I remember in NL, if your town was full, someone would ping to move around every 4-5 days if I'm not mistaken.
So far only Wolfgang asked me to move and he moved in recently too - I denied because I wanted to think about it more but now I wish I had traded him.

I was also wondering if the thought bubble above the head is gonna be the first thing you see when they walk around town after starting up your game or could it potentially happen later throughout the day (as I said, I only had it happen once so can't really comment on that).

I’ve had 10 villagers since my first move-out request and still waited 10 days for the second one.

Both of my move-out requests were later in the day. It no longer has to be immediate. I was mentioning that earlier in the thread and wondering what prompts the thought bubble if it’s no longer something that happens at the start of the day.
 
I've had 2 requests since I started playing and one I rejected. I've also been playing since launch. I have to get through 6 villagers and it feels like it's gonna take a year at this point! TT v TT
 
I only ever really experienced one (but I wanted to keep her) and I’ve been playing the game since launch (I don’t TT though). I’m actually getting impatient. Everytime I see Ed thinking I’m like yyyyaaasssss and then he’ll end up just giving me a gift instead. Boo. ☹
Si I'm not the only one desperately waiting for Ed to finally decide to go live his life somewhere else. Seems like the guy likes to stick to where he lives. Hope I'll have the so long awaited thought bubble soon...
 
Seems like kicking out villagers is much more difficult than new leaf, I tried kicking like 2 or 3 of my villagers out and no luck even with TT'ing
 
I definitely think it's random. I don't time travel and tend to play a few times throughout the day. Earlier this week (I think it was either Monday or Tuesday) Frita told me she wanted to move but I said no since she's one of my favorites! She was the first to ask to move. Then Thursday, yesterday for me, Octavian asked to move out.
 
I’ve gotten 3 requests (both from Mira and one from Apollo) and declined them. So far they only happened to me when I TT’ed one day back and then forward to the current day again.
 
Grrr I've only had this happen one time, and otherwise every time they have thought bubbles above their head they're trying to gift or sell me something!
 
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