I've noticed that a lot of the people reporting longer wait times between requests seem to be TTers. I'm hearing 2-3 weeks from people who time travel and 5-14 days from people who don't, generally. I wonder if that's a coincidence?
I've noticed that unlike past games, neither of the move-out requests I've gotten have been at the start of the day/session. Both times I've only seen a villager with the thought bubble after a few hours of gameplay that day, and they were both villagers I'd already talked to several times that day before they started thinking about moving. So I wonder what triggers the appearance of that bubble, if it's no longer the first thing on their mind when you load up the game that day. Huck asked to move after I returned home from a mystery tour, and Bubbles asked to move today after I returned from visiting my boyfriend's island. It seems like putting more hours into a single day slightly increases the chance that someone will want to move that day, especially if you're doing things that prompt changes in your villagers' locations and activities, like "reloading" your island by leaving and coming back. So maybe TTers, who are less likely to play several hours on a single in-game day, aren't seeing thought bubbles that might have generated if they'd been playing longer sessions or more than once per in-game day during those times?
I don't care at all whether people TT or not, just something I've noticed! I'd like to figure out what makes the game decide when a villager will think about moving.
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Yeah, I don't know. I've been in quarantine, so I've been playing 3-4 hours per in-game day, and about 10 hours per real-life day, even when I was TTing. So I don't think that play time affects it much, sinch I really was spending a lot of time per in-game day. Here's when I got my requests to move:
First two in-game weeks, TTing: No requests (could have been because I had fewer than 7 villagers).
Second two in-game week, TTing: One request.
TT back to the actual date, play in real time (no TTing) for 1.5 weeks: One request.
As for when during the day I got the request, the first one was as soon as I started the game up (one villager told me another was thinking of moving and I should go talk to them within 5 minutes of starting the game).
The second request I got after maybe an hour of playing when a villager had a thought bubble over their head.
So I don't necessarily think you have to play the game for several hours before someone asks to move. It seems to just be luck/RNG.