Jacob4
Senior Member
THE COLLECTIBLE PRICE GUIDE
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NAVIGATION
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Market Prices | Collectibles I most need more data for
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GENERAL OUTLINE OF THIS GUIDE
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As you can probably gather from the title, I am going to make a price guide on TBT collectibles, but in a rather different fashion to the other guides.
I will be using confidence intervals in order to estimate the approximate mean (average price) for a given collectable. Namely, I will be using a 95% confidence interval (meaning the true mean/average price of the collectible has a 95% chance of being in the given range). This should give people a pretty good idea of what the current price range is.
PLEASE HELP ME KEEP THIS GUIDE AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE! Find out how on the "HOW YOU CAN HELP MAINTAIN THE GUIDE" spoiler under the "MORE INFORMATION" section below. Thanks!
PLEASE BUMP THIS THREAD WHEN YOU CAN SO PEOPLE SEE IT!
Hopefully this guide should be of use to those who are unsure of collectible prices, and want a more factual based methodology for finding the price ranges of collectibles.
NOTE: The price ranges I give are only a guide and they are not to control what price you buy/sell for - that is your own choice
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FURTHER INFORMATION
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METHOD OF OBTAINING PRICES
In order to find a 95% confidence interval for a given collectible, I will use 5 different prices where a successful trade has taken place for the given collectible, and then I will find the mean and standard deviation of this set of data. For example, if I find the data values of the cherry collectible to be 250, 100, 200, 200, 225, there will be a mean of 195 and a standard deviation of approximately 57. In order to find the range of the confidence interval, we use (μ - σ/√n * 1.96, μ + σ/√n * 1.96), where μ is the mean value of the set of data, σ is the standard deviation of the set of data, n is 5 (amount of data values used) and 1.96 is the necessary z value or constant needed to generate the probability of an overall 95% chance for the mean value to lie within the resulting range. For the data set of 250, 100, 200, 200, 225, where the mean is 195 and standard deviation is approx 57, we find that the 95% confidence interval is (195 - 57/√5 * 1.96, 195 + 57/√5 * 1.96), which leads to an approximate range of 145 - 245 or (145, 245). Hence, we are 95% certain that the true average for the price of a cherry collectible lies between 145TBT and 245TBT.
In order to find a 95% confidence interval for a given collectible, I will use 5 different prices where a successful trade has taken place for the given collectible, and then I will find the mean and standard deviation of this set of data. For example, if I find the data values of the cherry collectible to be 250, 100, 200, 200, 225, there will be a mean of 195 and a standard deviation of approximately 57. In order to find the range of the confidence interval, we use (μ - σ/√n * 1.96, μ + σ/√n * 1.96), where μ is the mean value of the set of data, σ is the standard deviation of the set of data, n is 5 (amount of data values used) and 1.96 is the necessary z value or constant needed to generate the probability of an overall 95% chance for the mean value to lie within the resulting range. For the data set of 250, 100, 200, 200, 225, where the mean is 195 and standard deviation is approx 57, we find that the 95% confidence interval is (195 - 57/√5 * 1.96, 195 + 57/√5 * 1.96), which leads to an approximate range of 145 - 245 or (145, 245). Hence, we are 95% certain that the true average for the price of a cherry collectible lies between 145TBT and 245TBT.
HOW OFTEN THIS GUIDE WILL BE UPDATED
As you can probably tell from the methodology above, a disadvantage of this is that it will be quite tedious for me to work out all of these values, which is why I have used a smaller sample size (5) so that it takes less effort to find prices - however, theoretically, if a larger sample size was used, the 95% confidence interval would have a much smaller range (more accurate).
I will only update the prices for collectibles when I feel it is necessary (I will not update everything at once). I will update collectibles as frequently as possible - I will try to make it so that all prices are suitable for the current time.
The price ranges I obtain will always be corresponding and relevant to the price of the collectible at the current time.
As you can probably tell from the methodology above, a disadvantage of this is that it will be quite tedious for me to work out all of these values, which is why I have used a smaller sample size (5) so that it takes less effort to find prices - however, theoretically, if a larger sample size was used, the 95% confidence interval would have a much smaller range (more accurate).
I will only update the prices for collectibles when I feel it is necessary (I will not update everything at once). I will update collectibles as frequently as possible - I will try to make it so that all prices are suitable for the current time.
The price ranges I obtain will always be corresponding and relevant to the price of the collectible at the current time.
WHICH GUIDE TO USE
You can also look at Sholee's guide on the price of collectibles for a different methodology on finding the prices of collectibles, which is more opinion based than mine (which can sometimes be more accurate, and sometimes is not). It would actually be a good idea to grasp both guides to get a less biased estimate for the price range of a given collectible. It is possible that I will make an unbiased range (as well as my own) using price ranges based on Sholee's guide and my guide, using the average minimum price of the given collectible from my guide and sholee's guide, and using the average maximum price of the given collectible from my guide and sholee's guide.
You can also look at Sholee's guide on the price of collectibles for a different methodology on finding the prices of collectibles, which is more opinion based than mine (which can sometimes be more accurate, and sometimes is not). It would actually be a good idea to grasp both guides to get a less biased estimate for the price range of a given collectible. It is possible that I will make an unbiased range (as well as my own) using price ranges based on Sholee's guide and my guide, using the average minimum price of the given collectible from my guide and sholee's guide, and using the average maximum price of the given collectible from my guide and sholee's guide.
HOW YOU CAN HELP MAINTAIN THE GUIDE
I would be very grateful if other users could help by simply saying if a collectible has changed price, or you could post a price for a collectible that has been successful (MUST have been a successful trade). At current it is sometimes difficult to find enough data for some collectibles, so it would really help if people posted prices of successful trades to help out. However, if any arbitrary prices are posted (ones largely outside the current ranges), they will NOT be considered. Also, as I've said before, with a larger sample size for a collectible, the more precise the range for a collectible can be, giving people a better idea of the true price - if many people post prices, I could possibly make the sample size 10 instead of 5 for all collectibles. I really hope we can make this a community effort in order to help others out who are unsure about prices. Also, bumping the thread whenever possible would be a big help. Thank you!
I would be very grateful if other users could help by simply saying if a collectible has changed price, or you could post a price for a collectible that has been successful (MUST have been a successful trade). At current it is sometimes difficult to find enough data for some collectibles, so it would really help if people posted prices of successful trades to help out. However, if any arbitrary prices are posted (ones largely outside the current ranges), they will NOT be considered. Also, as I've said before, with a larger sample size for a collectible, the more precise the range for a collectible can be, giving people a better idea of the true price - if many people post prices, I could possibly make the sample size 10 instead of 5 for all collectibles. I really hope we can make this a community effort in order to help others out who are unsure about prices. Also, bumping the thread whenever possible would be a big help. Thank you!
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