Big question about Money Trees...

[SamXX]

So. The first few money trees I planted in New Horizons, I planted 99k in to each of them, expecting to triple it and get 297k back. Instead, I was hugely disappointed when I got 30k back - actually losing most of the bells I had originally put in... I did some reading online, and found a few people talking about a 30k limit. Great. So I'd already planted 4 more 99k trees, which (I expected) would all give me 30k back max.

Until today... I shook the tree I planted a few days ago (the last 99k tree), and, it had grew 297k? 3x 99k bags?

So all I'm wondering is... has anyone else had a similar experience? Can we in fact plant 99k bags and get 297k back, or does that seem to just be a fluke?

 

[lucitine]

You can plant more than 10k in the ground, but it'll be a chance that you'll get 3x whatever you planted. 30K return is the minimum guaranteed return.

 

[visibleghost]

you are only guaranteed to get 30 k back however a few days a week you can get up to 297 k
i found this youtube video to be helpful

EDIT: read below what others have said about this.

 

[AnimalCrossingPerson]

Whether it's capped at 30,000 or not is random. Don't bury more than 10,000 Bells.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245206733062012928

 

[lucitine]

Whether it's capped at 30,000 or not is random. Don't bury more than 10,000 Bells.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245206733062012928

I mean, its worth trying to bury 30K. You either get 30k back or you make 60k profit.

 

[AnimalCrossingPerson]

I mean, its worth trying to bury 30K. You either get 30k back or you make 60k profit.

Maybe my maths is off, but that would be 18K profit on average, right? Burying 10K gives 20K profit.

 

[lucitine]

Maybe my maths is off, but that would be 18K profit on average, right? Burying 10K gives 20K profit.

I'm a bit confused by your statement.
Yes, burying 10k gives you 20k profit, but it doesnt detract from my statement that 30k would either net you 0 or 60k profit.

Sorry, just a bit tired and my brain isnt working fully atm so not sure if I'm just misunderstanding you.

 

[Underneath The Stars]

there's only a few days a week where it would work, i'd only advice doing this if you have a lot of bells. because you have to figure out your pattern. so basically, shell out bells (everyday 99k) until you earn it back and it will take time.

 

[Imbri]

It was like that in ACGC, too. You had a chance to get the huge payoff if you buried that many bells, but the percentage is slim. To be safe, I never bury more than 10,000 bells in a hold. If you wait until you hit your money rock before digging up the spot, you can guarantee 30,000 bells a day, as your trees mature.

 

[RandomSanity]

So it's not actually random, there is a pattern to it? That's good to know, I've been doing it all wrong!

 

[AnimalCrossingPerson]

So it's not actually random, there is a pattern to it? That's good to know, I've been doing it all wrong!

There is no pattern. A while back, this Reddit post got some attention and everyone lapped the theory up.

I'm a bit confused by your statement.
Yes, burying 10k gives you 20k profit, but it doesnt detract from my statement that 30k would either net you 0 or 60k profit.

Sorry, just a bit tired and my brain isnt working fully atm so not sure if I'm just misunderstanding you.

Burying 30K has a 30% chance of giving 60K profit, and a 70% chance of 0K profit. This gives an average profit of 18K. Meanwhile, burying 10K gives you 20K profit every single time.

 

[jiojiop]

I'm a bit confused by your statement.
Yes, burying 10k gives you 20k profit, but it doesnt detract from my statement that 30k would either net you 0 or 60k profit.

Sorry, just a bit tired and my brain isnt working fully atm so not sure if I'm just misunderstanding you.

I completely understand your intuition: if you plant 30k you're either breaking even or you're tripling for 90k! That sounds good. But the part that's missing is your chance to do so. Let me take an extreme example: what if I could take one deal that would give me $1000 profit every time, yeah that sounds good. But the other deal gives me 1 million profit 50% of the time and $40,000 in losses the other 50%. Sure, deal 1 never loses you money, but deal 2 is better if you consider not just that one-time transaction ($1k profit vs. $40k loss!) but how that strategy will do for you overall.

So if there's a 30% chance of tripling your initial investment x, your average profit (subtracting investment) will be:

profit = (0.3)*(3x) + (0.7)*(30k) - x

so for 10k:
profit = 0.3*3*10k + 0.7*30k - 10k = 20k

for 30k:
profit = 0.3*3*30k + 0.7*30k - 30k = 18k

So that means that burying 10k is the best and most profitable approach. You may not me making a whopping 90k or 297k ever, but you're always tripling your investment, resulting in a better overall outcome.

Spoiler: further analysis that might help

You can see from the equation itself that the point where all investments would be equal is when the chance of tripling is 1/3:
profit = (1/3)*3x + (2/3)*30,000 - x = x + 2*10,000 - x = 20,000 (completely not dependent on how much x is!)

And from that equation you can see that if the chance is less than 1/3, e.g. 1/4, then that first x term will be smaller than the subtracted x term (which is your initial investment). e.g. 3/4x - x = -1/4x.
> e.g. (1/4)*3x + (3/4)*30,000 - x = 22,500 - 1/4x
So you can see that when the chance of tripling is less than 1/3, you want to minimize x. That means burying 10k bells.

And you can see than when it's larger than 1/3, e.g. 1/2, the first x term will be bigger than the subtracted x term. e.g. 3/2x - x = +1/2x.
> e.g. (1/2)*3x + (1/2)*30,000 - x = 1/2x + 15,000
So when the chance of tripling is more than 1/3, you want to maximize x. That means burying 99k bells.

 

[RandomSanity]

There is no pattern. A while back, this Reddit post got some attention and everyone lapped the theory up.

Did you watch the video posted above? Looks pretty clear that he was able to re-produce the 99K bell trees at a regular pattern. Is that a hoax video then?

 

[thelonewanderer]

I always bury 30K because 20K profit per day does nothing for me.

 

[Red Cat]

you are only guaranteed to get 30 k back however a few days a week you can get up to 297 k
i found this youtube video to be helpful

Whether it's capped at 30,000 or not is random. Don't bury more than 10,000 Bells.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245206733062012928

I'm testing with 11k each day to see if there really is a pattern or if the Youtube video is just the result of dumb luck. It's worth noting that the Youtube video was posted more recently than the tweet, so presumably the video is not just based off of old mechanics that may have been patched later.

 

[visibleghost]

sorry, i didn't know that the video wasn't true. i'm currently trying out the method in the video but haven't gotten any results yet, just thought i would share what i saw.

 

[lucitine]

So if there's a 30% chance of tripling your initial investment x, your average profit (subtracting investment) will be:

profit = (0.3)*(3x) + (0.7)*(30k) - x

so for 10k:
profit = 0.3*3*10k + 0.7*30k - 10k = 20k

for 30k:
profit = 0.3*3*30k + 0.7*30k - 30k = 18k

Fair enough. I guess my method is more for people who aren't needing too much money. I personally think that waiting the number of days for the tree to grow for 20k isnt worth it.