Thought Bubble Shifting Question

Bk1234

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So, I've hopped between the 25th and the 26th nany times and Frita has never had a thought bubble once. The villager who haven't asked to move are Frita (who asked to leave before), Erik (who asked to leave before), Hamlet (whose birthday is on the 30th), and Bruce (who just moved in, and whose birthday is today). I didn't know that asking to leave before and saying no prevented a villager from asking again. Is my assumption correct?
 
I recently moved my thought bubble around Over a period of 14 days( I don’t TT) and I had the bubble land on tank a few times. He has asked once before and I had told him no. The rng seems very random and it took forever for the bubble to finally land on flurry.
 
I recently moved my thought bubble around Over a period of 14 days( I don’t TT) and I had the bubble land on tank a few times. He has asked once before and I had told him no. The rng seems very random and it took forever for the bubble to finally land on flurry.
Thank you!
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Does anyone know if a villager Birthday prevents a villager in town from having a thought bubble? Today is Bruce's birthday for me, and I've yet to find anyone with a thought bubble.
 
^ yeah the bubble doesn't trigger during events (e.g. fishing tourney, k.k.)
I got thought bubbles when K.K. visited but usually much later in the evening.
Also, I'm sure people have reported getting thought bubbles during the previous finishing tourney - no idea about birthdays though as I only had one villager birthday so far. I'm pretty sure the villager having the birthday won't leave since they stay in their house on that day.
 
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