I'm over the 15 day cooldown for the moveout thought bubble and I am curious as to whether anyone knows if resetting the game can make thought bubbles appear on villagers? Doesn't have to be a moveout thought bubble but any though bubble.
Yes sometimes even if the mover is picked you wont always get the thought bubble first try. If you reset a few time though and don't get one it's pretty safe to say you don't have a mover picked that day. I have gone a full month before I've had a mover selected, a few friends had this as well. As for as non mover thought bubbles resetting, not sure, however if a villager has one you can reset and the bubble can move to another villager on reload. Or it can pick the same villager and give you a different prompt. Example: Villager wanted to give you a gift, reset now they want an item you have.
iirc it is always a move-out bubble if you don't interact with your villagers at all. You need to be at a certain level of friendship for them to do other stuff with the thought bubbles. If you do interact with them, the simplest thing to do is the method of talking to the villagers with thought bubbles to confirm if it's a move-out, then force closing the game while the text is still on the screen so it doesn't save the convo.