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Stalk Market Trend Analysis
- Thread starter tajikey
- Start date
Thank you to all who participated. I'll be reviewing the results between tonight and tomorrow morning, and report preliminary results. If we do this for a few weeks, we should have enough data to make better decisions in the Stalk Market.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
NoMoreNook
Junior Member
Thanks for putting this together! Not sure how you want to distribute the data but I'd suggest a read-only Google Sheet with a "raw data" tab and a "clean data" (or whatever analysis stuff you're doing).
Miss Misty
Senior Member
Has there been any updates on this? Do you want people to keep submitting data?
There's already been a datamined guide for the stalk market. It's generally the same as NL aside from the small spike pattern.
gdoc.pub
Breaking Down The Stalk Market
Miss Misty
Senior Member
Thank you for this! Reading over it now
There's already been a datamined guide for the stalk market. It's generally the same as NL aside from the small spike pattern.
Breaking Down The Stalk Market
Thanks for sharing
No problem! It's very in depth, but seems to be accurate from what I've seen. Both of my turnip prices the past 2 weeks have fit into those patterns.
Miss Misty
Senior Member
Actually, from my notes, my patterns don't really seem to fit in, unless I'm misinterpreting it, which is a distinct possibility.
What pattern doesn't fit? Might be able to help if you have the turnip prices.
Miss Misty
Senior Member
Nevermind, I think I might have missed a check in one of mine which is throwing my numbers off. The one week I know I checked every value follows the small spike pattern, so this may just be user error.
There's already been a datamined guide for the stalk market. It's generally the same as NL aside from the small spike pattern.
Breaking Down The Stalk Market
I appreciate this link, thank you. It's a bit confusingly written so maybe I'm misunderstanding, but I think the Random pattern is incorrect.
My Random pattern is as follows:
M a = 116
M p = 99
T a = 121 (increase)
T p = 116
W a = 90
W p = 90 (increase/tie)
Th a = 59
Th p = 54
F a = 103 (increase)
F p = 57
S a = 49
S p = 42
According to the doc, the phases occur in this order:
- Increasing Phase 1
- Decreasing Phase 1
- Increasing Phase 2
- Decreasing Phase 2
- Increasing Phase 3
(It decreases at the start but this isn't mentioned in the doc pattern)
1. Incr1: Tues AM only. 1 half day (lines up with doc)
2. Decr1: Tues PM - Wed AM. 2 half days (lines up with doc)
3. Incr2: 1 half day (WRONG)
4. Decr2: 2 half days (WRONG)
5. Incr3: 1 half day (lines up with doc)
(Then it decreases for 3 more half days, which are not mentioned in the doc pattern)
Calculation for Incr2:
temp length = 7 - Incr1 = 7-1 = 6
Incr2 = temp length - Incr3 = 6-1 = 5
So it was supposed to be 5 half days. But both my Incr2 and my Incr3 only lasted 1 half day.
Calculation for Decr2:
Decr2 = 5 - Decr1 = 5 - 2 = 3
But it actually lasted 2 half days.
Maybe you think that the tie (90 to 90) doesn't count as an increase and that's what's throwing it off. But in that case it fits the doc even worse because it means I don't even have an Increasing Phase 3.
Did I explain this understandably? lol I know it's kinda confusing
Yeah it's a ton of text so can be really confusing. What was your buy price from Daisy Mae that week? It would help a lot with understanding where your phases were.
Based on taking a guess with a buy price of 100 bells. It looks like:
Increase phase 1: Mon (morn) to Wed (morn OR night)
Decrease phase 1: Wed (morn OR night) to Th (night)
Increase phase 2: Fri (morn)
Decrease phase 2: Fri (night) to Sat (night)
Increase phase 3: Set to 0 days, didn't exist this time.
Wait so the purchase price is included in the pattern? I didn't think that was ever the case before because you couldn't sell at that price. I believe it was 105. But then Incr1 is wrong, because it was 1 half day (M a) when it's supposed to be 2 or 3 days.
No it's not included, but all the math for the patterns is based on the purchase price.
Ok but then here is my pattern...
S = 105
M a = 116 (increase)
M p = 99
T a = 121 (increase)
T p = 116
W a = 90
W p = 90
Th a = 59
Th p = 54
F a = 103 (increase)
F p = 57
S a = 49
S p = 42
1. Incr1: Mon AM. 1 half day (ok)
2. Decr1: Mon PM. 1 half day (WRONG - should be 2 or 3)
3. Incr2: Tues AM. 1 half day (WRONG)
4. Decr2: 5 half days (WRONG)
5. Incr3: Fri AM. 1 half day (ok)
(Then it decreases for 3 more half days, which are not mentioned in the doc pattern)
Calculation for Incr2:
temp length = 7 - Incr1 = 7-1 = 6
Incr2 = temp length - Incr3 = 6-1 = 5
So it was supposed to be 5 half days. But both my Incr2 and my Incr3 only lasted 1 half day.
Calculation for Decr2:
Decr2 = 5 - Decr1 = 5 - 1 = 4
But it actually lasted 5 half days.
Hmm, that purchase price doesn't seem to work out well. Any possibility you might've forgotten the price?
I think the thing you're confused about is the term "increasing phase". Under the table, it describes "Increasing Phase 1" as "Random between 90% and 140% of your base price"
Using your stated base price (105), the range of values you should expect for this first Increasing Phase 1 should be 95-147. This will cover Mon (am) to Tues (pm). Your 2 Wednesday prices are where this gets funky. 90 is outside the range for the increase phase, but also doesn't seem like it is the start of a decrease phase either. Can't explain that either. It definitely breaks the pattern, so unless there was a chance you forgot the purchase price, I'm not sure what to say lol.
I think the thing you're confused about is the term "increasing phase". Under the table, it describes "Increasing Phase 1" as "Random between 90% and 140% of your base price"
Using your stated base price (105), the range of values you should expect for this first Increasing Phase 1 should be 95-147. This will cover Mon (am) to Tues (pm). Your 2 Wednesday prices are where this gets funky. 90 is outside the range for the increase phase, but also doesn't seem like it is the start of a decrease phase either. Can't explain that either. It definitely breaks the pattern, so unless there was a chance you forgot the purchase price, I'm not sure what to say lol.
