Odds of finding Raymond? [Update!]

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@JonnyJinx

A member here is the one who came out with the Mystery Island Pattern. I did asked but they're not sure if we have a full cat resident could increase our odds.

Edit: It seems it doesn't increase the odds. šŸ˜‚

Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests

Another data update: I am strongly leading towards an additional hypothesis: Having or lacking a personality or species does NOT increase or decrease the chances for that one to appear on the mystery islands. There is also no data to suggest that the game will place recent villagers you meet...
www.belltreeforums.com
 
I spent time camp resetting him for who knows how many years lol. I had 43 campers in total. I've seen 27 smug villagers and 16 other personalities (mixed of peppy/cranky/normal/jock/snooty/lazy/sisterly). Got him as my 27th smug. It probably took me 2 days to find him. I'm using a second Switch, by the way.

Then I got another Raymond a few days after while I was resetting for Whitney. I didn't get the snooty villager I wanted but he appeared again. He was my 3rd camper lol

Then I went to mystery island to look for Whitney there. I saw him again for the 3rd time on my 46th ticket.
 
I went through just above 300 tickets to find Raymond. Along the way got Sherb around the 200 mark.

Ran into some fun dreamies like Rosie, Stitches, all dem wolves, and Bob. Hurts less to walk away when you've got access to all the amiibos.

Notes ~

At the time I did indeed have a smug villager.

I TT'd to stay on the same day as I was afraid the plot would be bought out the next day.
 
Could someone explain the island mechanic to me. What does ā€žit rolls for species firstā€ mean?
I thought about this when i was looking for bob and I concluded that the odds were 1/402-(number of villagers on your island) but it seems i wasnt taking much into account. Also, i spent 159 tickets and didnā€™t find him, but saw many villagers multiple times (i saw octavian 5 times). Wondering how that works.

Edit: nvm, i scrolled up
 
@ScaryGhosts

The game will choose the species first and then will select within the pool of characters found on that specific species so if happenstance that when the game roll octopus, you have a high chance of getting Zucker because there's only three characters in that pool.

Example, if you're looking for Zucker.

Since there's 35 species, you have one out of the thirty five chance to get the octopus species and then one out of three chance to get Zucker so
1/35 x 1/3= 1%

Compare to let's say Kid Cat
1/35 x 1/23= 0. 012% only
 
Most will spend hundreds and hundreds of tickets trying to get him. Some get very lucky and find him quickly but getting lucky and finding him quickly is about as rare as he is.
 
Thank you to everyone who commented! I'm definitely gonna end up doing the campsite method if the tickets don't work but just wanted to see my chances burning through them, congrats to everyone who got Raymond in the past! I hope I'll have the same luck!
 
*Maddy* said:
Thank you to everyone who commented! I'm definitely gonna end up doing the campsite method if the tickets don't work but just wanted to see my chances burning through them, congrats to everyone who got Raymond in the past! I hope I'll have the same luck!
Click to expand...
Good luck, I hope you find him... I have him and he is cool but not in my top 4 of villagers....
 
sicklewillow said:
Nope. The game roll per species first and then roll on the number of characters in that pool.

So for any cat characters, 1/35 species times 1/23 cat characters=0.12%

I have to keep this in mind because going to hunt for Kid Cat this weekend.
Click to expand...

If I have an island with 9 cats, that becomes 1/14 cat characters right?

I'm not interested in Raymond, but I like statistics.
 
@JKDOS

Based from @ctar17 's Mystery Island RNG Pattern thread, it doesn't increase or decrease the chances. It's more of a hypothesis I think. The pattern has been already confirmed through data mining.

Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests

Another data update: I am strongly leading towards an additional hypothesis: Having or lacking a personality or species does NOT increase or decrease the chances for that one to appear on the mystery islands. There is also no data to suggest that the game will place recent villagers you meet...
www.belltreeforums.com
 
sicklewillow said:
@JKDOS

Based from @ctar17 's Mystery Island RNG Pattern thread, it doesn't increase or decrease the chances. It's more of a hypothesis I think. The pattern has been already confirmed through data mining.

Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests

Another data update: I am strongly leading towards an additional hypothesis: Having or lacking a personality or species does NOT increase or decrease the chances for that one to appear on the mystery islands. There is also no data to suggest that the game will place recent villagers you meet...
www.belltreeforums.com
Click to expand...

What pattern are you talking about? That threads clearly points to the species rolling first. In that case having an island full of cats WILL increase your chances of a certain cat appearing WHEN the cat species is rolled.

The post you linked is talking about lacking a personality or species, not having a bunch of a certain species.
 
@sicklewillow
@Bioness

Just to clear some things up:

Theoretically, having an island with 9 cats (can't have 10 because you need an open plot to island hop) would increase the chance of finding Raymond from 0.12% to 0.19%, so a max increase of 0.07%, this is negligible imo. Having 1 cat is not a significant increase at all, every cat you have increases your Raymond odds by about 0.005%. Therefore when I say having or lacking a species doesn't increase nor decrease your odds, it's because the chance of increase is so small, that it is basically negligible for us and would require at least a thousand tickets, if not more, to notice a difference pretty much. There are 24 cats in ACNH, so the highest you could get the roll would be (1/35)*(1/15)=(1/525) or about 0.19%.

I would recommend using the campsite trick or random move-in trick for hunting Raymond instead of mystery islands. Both of these methods require you to lack the smug personality, and your odds are probably 100 times better.
 
Last edited:
ctar17 said:
@sicklewillow
@Bioness

Just to clear some things up:

Theoretically, having an island with 9 cats (can't have 10 because you need an open plot to island hop) would increase the chance of finding Raymond from 0.12% to 0.19%, so a max increase of 0.07%, this is negligible imo. Having 1 cat is not a significant increase at all, every cat you have increases your Raymond odds by about 0.005%. Therefore when I say having or lacking a species doesn't increase nor decrease your odds, it's because the chance of increase is so small, that it is basically negligible for us and would require at least a thousand tickets, if not more, to notice a difference pretty much. There are 24 cats in ACNH, so the highest you could get the roll would be (1/35)*(1/15)=(1/525) or about 0.19%.

I would recommend using the campsite trick or random move-in trick for hunting Raymond instead of mystery islands. Both of these methods require you to lack the smug personality, and your odds are probably 100 times better.
Click to expand...

The campsite trick only works with a cleared void correct. Is there information on how best to do that? Or is it just letting 4 consecutive days pass.
 
It only took me seven NMTs to find him chilling on a mystery island. He was my sixth villager to move in counting the starters, and I dread the day he wants to move.
 
Bioness said:
The campsite trick only works with a cleared void correct. Is there information on how best to do that? Or is it just letting 4 consecutive days pass.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure as I haven't tried it myself. You can have a full island and just be missing a smug, and then when Raymond shows, he'll kick out someone. My friend found Raymond in about 50 campsite visitors, over half of them were smug. He didn't get any repeats, and had TTed to 2022 by the time he was done.
 
it took me ~1600 for Raymond, 231 for Judy (once I started counting)
 
I spent maybe around 50 or so and found him. I wasn't even really looking for him, but I can't complain lol.
 
So I just got Raymond today, my in game time was about 9:20am and it was raining on the mystery island (if anyone was curious). I spent over 200 nmt to find him. I already had 2 smug villagers and others would show up from that category as well on the mystery islands. I found a few different cat villagers as well (ruby, kitty, bob). I spent about 3 consecutive irl days of kicking out villagers I didnt want or that moved in because I time traveled too far ahead, I did this until I could find him. It took a long time but that was my experience in getting Raymond. I hope this helps you in any way!
 
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