Odds of finding Raymond? [Update!]

[*Maddy*]

*Update!*
I got Raymond! I didn't feel the need to update this thread because I actually ended up getting him from someone incredibly nice for only 50 nmt!!! I did end up island hopping after making this post but after 200+ tickets I had no luck so I didn't update, then got extremely lucky with being at the right place at the right time! Thank you all for all your help in answering my question! I hope this thread helped/helps some people still looking for their dreamies!


I have about 65 nmt and at this point I'm debating trying my luck island hopping for him. For some reason it seems as though more Raymonds have been in circulation. So I was wondering those who have gotten Raymond by island hopping, if you kept track: How many tickets did it take, how long did it take, who did you come across before him ect? I'm just trying to figure if it would either be worth it to save up for a while or just test my luck and try. Let me know your guy's thoughts and findings!

 

[Calysis]

I read it was about a 0.12% chance to find him on a mystery island because it rolls for species first.

I gave up after 200 NMT and my bf found him for me on his second "random" move-in (he used the method I suggested about having no smugs living on your island so the game will "fill in" the personality you lack).

 

[Eirrinn]

It took about 84 to find him for me, with others taken over 500, it’s all up to chance

 

[gloomville]

someone got him on their 2nd. I burnt through 150 looking for Pietro and didn't get him. But I got everyone else's dreamies in the search for Pietro. Guess they're my dreamies now too. Originally I wanted much more spooky villagers than the ones I got. Then you get attached to them and might as well keep em.

 

[Tako]

I spent about 280 NMTs a few days ago looking for Raymond, but didn't have any luck. I didn't keep track of all the villagers I've stumbled upon, but I remember I came across Judy (x2), Sherb, Vivian, Marina (x3), Stitches, and Chester among the more popular ones.

 

[Chicken Tender]

i wasted about 80 nmt before i gave up and just found someone to trade. i'd recommend the camper method to get him, although its just as time-consuming.

 

[sicklewillow]

I was able to get Raymond with my 24th trip. My first twelve was done during last April 9 and the next twelve trips (where I found Raymond) was done last April 18. Unfortunately, I didn't list my first island hopping but I did list down my second island hopping.

 

[Clock]

It’s all random actually, but I did get him as my first camper.
The ratio is probably (the villager you want)/all of the villagers in the game) for the island or probably the campsite. Hopefully there’s an exploit like acnl when you can reset to try getting the villager you want.

 

[Lazaros]

you're better off not having smugs in your town and then trying the campsite trick to get the smug cat with glasses.
from experience, i wasted around ~250 NMT (i deleted half of these stats, but i'd love to show them off once i compile them) to get Sherb, who didn't come home. I came across Purrl 5 times during this hunt. In one sitting. It was a whole afternoon and evening, and while I don't personally mind running into multiples, it ends up grinding your gears. I eventually ran into smug glasses cat and just gave up, settled for him.

And notable run-ins were like, Reneigh, Megan, Cyd & Raymond ONCE and Dom TWICE. so, i know i could just be unlucky, but save yourself the headache is what i wanted to say.

 

[popefrancis]

I thought that there's an equal chance of finding any villager on a mystery island?

If this is true, assuming you have 9 other villagers in your island, you'll have about a 0.2545% chance of running into Raymond, or 1/393.

 

[SetsuTheYena]

I got a friend trying really hard to find him. He's used 200 tickets so far and not found him yet.

 

[sicklewillow]

I thought that there's an equal chance of finding any villager on a mystery island?

If this is true, assuming you have 9 other villagers in your island, you'll have about a 0.2545% chance of running into Raymond, or 1/393.

Nope. The game roll per species first and then roll on the number of characters in that pool.

So for any cat characters, 1/35 species times 1/23 cat characters=0.12%

I have to keep this in mind because going to hunt for Kid Cat this weekend.

 

[gloomville]

I was able to get Raymond with my 24th trip. My first twelve was done during last April 9 and the next twelve trips (where I found Raymond) was done last April 18. Unfortunately, I didn't list my first island hopping but I did list down my second island hopping.

You have some filthy good luck! lol Congrats! So quick.

 

[Calysis]

Nope. The game roll per species first and then roll on the number of characters in that pool.

So for any cat characters, 1/35 species times 1/23 cat characters=0.12%

I have to keep this in mind because going to hunt for Kid Cat this weekend.

To add onto this, the odds will go up if you fill your island with cat villagers (if you're hunting another cat, like Raymond).

There's more data and information about the odds of the mystery islands in this thread. ^^

 

[popefrancis]

Nope. The game roll per species first and then roll on the number of characters in that pool.

So for any cat characters, 1/35 species times 1/23 cat characters=0.12%

I have to keep this in mind because going to hunt for Kid Cat this weekend.

Oh gotcha, I had no idea how they select the villagers. That makes him like twice as rare than I thought!

 

[brockbrock]

I visited a bit over 500 islands before I found him. :X

 

[Hsn97]

I don’t know what the odds are, but I had 14 NMTs and decided to go to the mystery islands more to gather resources than look for a villager and I joked “imagine finding Raymond with just 14NMTs”.

I found him with my second ticket.

 

[JonnyJinx]

Nope. The game roll per species first and then roll on the number of characters in that pool.

So for any cat characters, 1/35 species times 1/23 cat characters=0.12%

I have to keep this in mind because going to hunt for Kid Cat this weekend.

So theoretically, you could maximise your chances to find Raymond by filling the rest of your town with cats + inviting a cat to your campsite with an amiibo, right?

In theory, that would raise the chances to 1/35 x 1/13 = 1/455, right? Or 0.22%. Still not exactly awe-inspiring odds...

 

[sicklewillow]

I don’t know what the odds are, but I had 14 NMTs and decided to go to the mystery islands more to gather resources than look for a villager and I joked “imagine finding Raymond with just 14NMTs”.

I found him with my second ticket.

This is what I called very lucky.

 

[AmyK]

A friend of mine spent 300 tickets in attempts to find Judy, without success. I feel really bad for everyone who goes through this... lol