NPC Spawn Rates Discovered

[Cadbberry]

I saw this article and was wondering if we could test this with player experience!

Saharah, Kicks, and Leif are guaranteed to appear once a week on a weekday
Gulliver, Label, CJ, Flick, or Redd can show up the other two days. If they don't show up their rates are boosted for the next week
Celeste can show up when its a meteor shower weather
Wisp can show up whenever

 

[Bioness]

This was posted a few days ago. The original source (as the article points out) is Ninji, a dataminer.

The information is pulled directly from the code, there is nothing to test.

 

[Cadbberry]

This was posted a few days ago. The original source (as the article points out) is Ninji, a dataminer.

The information is pulled directly from the code, there is nothing to test.

I thought it would be fun to test since some people haven't seen Flick, CJ, or Redd for weeks to see if there is a pattern to finding them

 

[Bioness]

I keep track of my visiters in my phone calendar, I haven't noticed a patterned. I time travel so it is useful knowing what day I should go to for a visitor.

Ninji 🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇬🇮 B L M / 1312 (@_Ninji) on Twitter

I feel like if there were a pattern, Ninji would have saw it, I mean he saw the increased chance thing.

I think it is just up to chance. If Nintendo wanted a pattern they would have given NPCs set days to appear.

 

[Underneath The Stars]

I thought it would be fun to test since some people haven't seen Flick, CJ, or Redd for weeks to see if there is a pattern to finding them

i mean it does say "boosted for the next week" but not certain, so it is still RNG.
but yes, this is 100% accurate.

 

[sdw4527]

i mean it does say "boosted for the next week" but not certain, so it is still RNG.
but yes, this is 100% accurate.

It's not just boosted, the visitors that didn't show up the last week get priority the next week. The only issue is there's going to be 3 visitors and only 2 slots. 1 will be left out no matter what. If you're unlucky, that same 1 visitor will continue to get left out which is why you sometimes hear of people not seeing specific visitors for a month or more.

 

[carackobama]

this was super interesting to read and explains a lot tbh!

 

[Chiana]

I have never had a meteor shower on days when Celeste visits. All showers have been on non-Celeste days.

 

[Underneath The Stars]

It's not just boosted, the visitors that didn't show up the last week get priority the next week. The only issue is there's going to be 3 visitors and only 2 slots. 1 will be left out no matter what. If you're unlucky, that same 1 visitor will continue to get left out which is why you sometimes hear of people not seeing specific visitors for a month or more.

wait but how is priority different than boosted when i’m pretty sure i was able to get Label and Gulliver on consecutive weeks

 

[Bioness]

wait but how is priority different than boosted when i’m pretty sure i was able to get Label and Gulliver on consecutive weeks

They mean the same thing in this context. Increased chance, but not 100%.

 

[sdw4527]

wait but how is priority different than boosted when i’m pretty sure i was able to get Label and Gulliver on consecutive weeks

Priority actually means just that. Here's an example. Let's say Gulliver, Label, and Redd were missing last week. This means all 3 were added to the "priority list" for this week. The catch here is that since there's 3 forced visitors every week (Leif, Saharah, Kicks), that only leaves 2 spots for random visitors. Since there's 3 visitors in the priority list, 1 will get left out no matter what. For our example, let's say it's Redd.

Redd will then get added to next week's priority list along with CJ and Flick. Same process repeats, but bad luck strikes and the game chooses CJ/Flick out of the priority list, leaving Redd missing for that week too. If you get bad RNG, one particular visitor might not show up for several weeks.

Edit: I'm going to assume Label and Gulliver on consecutive weeks was before the last update? Since there were only 2 forced visitors then, and 3 spots for randoms, it's actually guaranteed you'll have 2 of the same visitors as the previous week.

 

[Aleigh]

I got Wisp three nights in a row this past week so if that helps at all lmao

 

[alexordaff]

Haven't got Gulliver in a month