My villager never wants to move?

[spectreville]

I'm trying to get my villager Bubbles (peppy hippo) to move out. I've been time traveling the past 12 hours with no luck. I'm trying to get an open plot.

Background info:
Basically, the past week my gf and I have been trading some of our old villagers to get their original house. We used a combination of methods we found online, mainly consisting of time traveling either 6-7 day intervals or 15 day intervals. All other villagers up until this point were able to get the thought bubble just fine. At some point we were down to trading our last two villagers (Zucker and Drago). We both decided to use a campsite villager to have our villys be in boxes much faster. I got Bubbles and my gf got Bunni.

Things to note:
-I've done 6-7 day, 15 day, and 30 day time skips.
-Bubbles is not my newest villager in terms of moving in or being kicked out.
-Bubbles got the glitch where the exterior of their house is the same as Zucker's. My gf experienced the same with Bunni.
-My gf was able to get Bunni to move out just fine despite this glitch.
-I am currently best friends with two of my villagers.
-I hardly interacted with Bubbles, but also decided to push them around.
-My other villagers minus my newest one have gotten the thought bubble just fine.

Any idea on what's going on or am I just getting real bad RNG? It's never taken this long with any other villager.

 

[Vextro]

I think the formula for when villagers move out was leaked recently

but at the end of the day I'm pretty sure it's just luck, I've had one villager who I've ignored for a while and then went to tt to get them out and get a dream villagers, they always stayed so I had to kick other villagers out, I think its just a 1/10 chance

 

[Rosch]

Here's the info regarding thought bubbles:

For Thought-Bubble Move outs:
+- You must have at least 6 villagers for one to ask to move
+- Nobody will ask to move out 5 days after you've told someone "no"
+- After someone has moved out, there's a 15-day cooldown where nobody can ask
+- Villagers are excluded from asking if:
‣ their birthday is in the next 7 days;
‣ their house is being moved;
‣ they were picked the most recent time and told to stay; or
‣ they were the most recent villager to move in

The chances of a villager asking to move out increases slightly each day, until one asks to move out. Answering yes or no to this question resets the chance to the default. This boost caps after 30 days.

Friendship affects the chances for a villager to ask to move out, with a villager with a higher friendship having a noticeably lower chance of asking to move compared to villagers with low friendship - a max friendship villager is 1/10 as likely to ask to move out compared to a 0 friendship villager. Having extra residents on the island reduces this effect, unless they are also building up friendship with your villagers.

Relative Weights for Villagers Asking to Move Out
This assumes you are the only person on the island.

Friendship | Chance to Move
------------------------------------
0 (Minimum) | 10x
25 (Newly moved in) | 9x
30 (Can Gift) | 9x
60 (Favour Level 3) | 8x
100 (Favour Level 4) | 6.6x
150 (Favour Level 5) | 5x
200 (Favour Level 6) | 3x
255 (Max) | 1x

Campsite
For move outs via campsite, villagers in boxes (either moving in or out) are excluded. Villagers that have their house scheduled for moving are also excluded. Each villager is weighted equally to be chosen.

 

[spectreville]

I think the formula for when villagers move out was leaked recently

but at the end of the day I'm pretty sure it's just luck, I've had one villager who I've ignored for a while and then went to tt to get them out and get a dream villagers, they always stayed so I had to kick other villagers out, I think its just a 1/10 chance

Here's the info regarding thought bubbles:

For Thought-Bubble Move outs:
+- You must have at least 6 villagers for one to ask to move
+- Nobody will ask to move out 5 days after you've told someone "no"
+- After someone has moved out, there's a 15-day cooldown where nobody can ask
+- Villagers are excluded from asking if:
‣ their birthday is in the next 7 days;
‣ their house is being moved;
‣ they were picked the most recent time and told to stay; or
‣ they were the most recent villager to move in

The chances of a villager asking to move out increases slightly each day, until one asks to move out. Answering yes or no to this question resets the chance to the default. This boost caps after 30 days.

Friendship affects the chances for a villager to ask to move out, with a villager with a higher friendship having a noticeably lower chance of asking to move compared to villagers with low friendship - a max friendship villager is 1/10 as likely to ask to move out compared to a 0 friendship villager. Having extra residents on the island reduces this effect, unless they are also building up friendship with your villagers.

Relative Weights for Villagers Asking to Move Out
This assumes you are the only person on the island.

Friendship | Chance to Move
------------------------------------
0 (Minimum) | 10x
25 (Newly moved in) | 9x
30 (Can Gift) | 9x
60 (Favour Level 3) | 8x
100 (Favour Level 4) | 6.6x
150 (Favour Level 5) | 5x
200 (Favour Level 6) | 3x
255 (Max) | 1x

Campsite
For move outs via campsite, villagers in boxes (either moving in or out) are excluded. Villagers that have their house scheduled for moving are also excluded. Each villager is weighted equally to be chosen.

Thank you for this. But something still seems odd. See, my two villagers that I'm best friends with are Audie and Gladys and they're actually the ones that have the thought bubble pretty much every time. Something still doesn't seem to quite add up, but as Vextro stated above, maybe it's just something about probability. It's just pretty crazy how I've been at this all day and not once has that darn hippo considered leaving lol