Usually it takes about a week. 3-4 days is safe for sure. Though It also depends on the villagers, I had "stubborn" ones not moing out even after a year.
When is the last time a villager pinged you? If one pinged you on leap day, then you're safe, but if the last ping was before then, I'd TT to March 1 and look for a moving villager before going back to today.
i've never gone a full week i don't think without a ping. maybe 4 or 5 days. but sometimes you'll get pings several days in a row. your best course of action depends upon when you were last pinged.