I have 0 smug villagers...

[sarosephie]

What's the likelihood I get them on a mystery island?

 

[fallenchaoskitten]

It will not affect mystery island RNG.
Island RNG is they will roll species then roll a villager from that species. Personality is not a factor.

However, if you have no smugs, you will be more likely to get smug campers when one comes to visit naturally.

 

[InstantNoodles]

Smug villagers are the best male personality imo. You should definitely consider getting one either via island hopping or the campsite method

 

[Nunnafinga]

The mystery islands are completely random but you should be able to see more than a few smugs.I got Graham from a mystery island.

 

[toenuki]

campsite is your best bet tbh