I saw 2 kangaroos while island hopping today and I only visited 10 islands
The villagers on islands seem 100% random to me.A day spent island hopping and I'm crushed
- Thread starter RenaiRider
- Start date
The villagers on islands seem 100% random to me.
I saw one villager twice in a row but that's after I saved the game, quit and re-booted it again.
I was wondering if it could have had anything to do with that.
Overall, I have been quite happy with my Nook Miles tickets hunts but I haven't spent ALL that many to give enough input.
My best villager by far was Sherb whom I found on a hybrid hyacinth island.
I also got Wolfgang and Octavian who are semi-popular.
The rest that I invited from the tours are Norma the normal cow, Apple the peppy hamster, and Boyd the cranky gorilla - these might not be too great but I found them all unique and cute enough to invite.
During most of my tours, I try not to focus on dreamies so much but rather a villager that I wouldn't mind having on my island for some time (even for a short while).
I did come across some that I didn't care for at all as well but I think I spent around 15 tickets in total so still can't complain too much.
I was wondering if it could have had anything to do with that.
Overall, I have been quite happy with my Nook Miles tickets hunts but I haven't spent ALL that many to give enough input.
My best villager by far was Sherb whom I found on a hybrid hyacinth island.
I also got Wolfgang and Octavian who are semi-popular.
The rest that I invited from the tours are Norma the normal cow, Apple the peppy hamster, and Boyd the cranky gorilla - these might not be too great but I found them all unique and cute enough to invite.
During most of my tours, I try not to focus on dreamies so much but rather a villager that I wouldn't mind having on my island for some time (even for a short while).
I did come across some that I didn't care for at all as well but I think I spent around 15 tickets in total so still can't complain too much.
This. Unfortunately targeting a specific villager out of a pool of almost 400 is going to be very hard for most people.
To spell it out:
To find Raymond within 10 islands is a 2% chance.
Within 165 islands 34% chance.
Within 500 islands 72% chance.
Within 1000 islands 92% chance.
The odds are against you up until ~300 islands where you finally eek over a 50% chance of encountering Raymond. And keep in mind this is encountering a specific villager that you encounter ONCE throughout that hunt. You will always find duplicates when looking for a specific villager when you do islands long enough.
It's completely random - this is how it is when all the villagers have the same probability of being in an island.
Gonna post this in this thread as well:
Does missing just 1 personality cause that personality to be a lot less likely to appear on the islands?
I only have 2 personal cases myself:
When I was missing a snooty, it took me 15 tickets to find a single snooty.
When my peppy moved out and I was looking for another one, I only saw 1 peppy in 30+ tickets, chose not to invite, and ended up adopting a Peppy for free from someone.
Does missing just 1 personality cause that personality to be a lot less likely to appear on the islands?
I only have 2 personal cases myself:
When I was missing a snooty, it took me 15 tickets to find a single snooty.
When my peppy moved out and I was looking for another one, I only saw 1 peppy in 30+ tickets, chose not to invite, and ended up adopting a Peppy for free from someone.
brockbrock
♬ jeg har ikke lyst til at dø ♬
Unfortunately you just had back luck!
When I was missing and looking for a jock I found one within 3 tickets.
You had bad luck. You have an high chance of encountering whatever personality you're targeting within 10 tickets.
I also found Sherb on a blue pansy hybrid island.
Spent 250+ NMT and still no Raymond. I got a lot of really good villagers like Ankha and Rosie but decided not to get any and ended up getting a random which I didn't like. Looking to get more but I'm all used up on miles and tickets...
It's a very rough estimate - I don't know if the personalities are evenly divided across the entire pool of villagers available. I would guess not. But imo anything more than 20 tickets is very unlucky. Of course this is just assuming that the personality matters - not the villager.
brockbrock
♬ jeg har ikke lyst til at dø ♬
That's a roughly 48% chance at 250 tickets. Unfortunately the odds so far haven't been in your favor.
I'm sorry, I understand how demoralizing it can feel!Its sad because I did want Rosie in my island but all this for Raymond and I got Norma and Zucker for more than 5 times already.That's a roughly 48% chance at 250 tickets. Unfortunately the odds so far haven't been in your favor.
I think as far as the repeat villager pattern:
You do have to keep in mind that the more islands you go to, the more different villagers you see, and therefore there is a higher chance that you see one you've already seen on your next island due to the pool of villagers you haven't seen becoming smaller with each new one you see.
It's analogous to the Birthday Paradox in that the odds of 2 people in a room having the same birthday are about 50% when there's just 23 people in the room. As you add each person going up from 1 person in the room, the pool of birthdays that no one has yet gets smaller and smaller each time, and it reaches 50% quickly, at 23 people. There are 366 possible birthdays.
here's an article on the Birthday Paradox: https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
I used the site and put in the number of villagers (391) instead and got that there is a 50% of a repeat at 24 islands if it's pure RNG.
You do have to keep in mind that the more islands you go to, the more different villagers you see, and therefore there is a higher chance that you see one you've already seen on your next island due to the pool of villagers you haven't seen becoming smaller with each new one you see.
It's analogous to the Birthday Paradox in that the odds of 2 people in a room having the same birthday are about 50% when there's just 23 people in the room. As you add each person going up from 1 person in the room, the pool of birthdays that no one has yet gets smaller and smaller each time, and it reaches 50% quickly, at 23 people. There are 366 possible birthdays.
here's an article on the Birthday Paradox: https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
I used the site and put in the number of villagers (391) instead and got that there is a 50% of a repeat at 24 islands if it's pure RNG.
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It also has a lot to do with the fact that, in computing, RNG isn't TRUE randomization, computers for the most part, cannot generate TRUELY random numbers, just unpredictable, yet still ultimately predetermined ones. Hard to explain in layman's terms (and off the top of my head loool) But it's a similar story to why shuffling your music playlist can feel same-y and repetitive. interesting stuff people should look into.
Yeah if it's not true RNG, then the chance of you seeing a repeat at 24 islands is even higher than 50%. I know what you're talking about, it's called pseudo-randomness, where it uses a set formula and set parameters that are basically almost random, but not quite. Take Pokemon and shiny hunting for example, especially in the GBA RSE games when you could find out which frame exactly would give you a shiny.
I did about 11 or 12 islands in a row just yesterday, each and every island I went to I would clear out and farm any atlas moths and tarantulas that I could find, even kept water bugs just so I didn't spend too long. I literally had one island with Renée to start, then the second was a spiral island with someone I didn't want, then literally straight after that it was the exact same island as the first time with Renée.. and then another spiral island with a different villager, again, one I didn't want.
It is very tiresome and very demotivating when you farm all those tickets, only to have to deal with this kind of stuff. Especially when they cost 2k a pop, you find yourself grinding for hours or even days to get enough for a mass headhunt and come out with next to nothing you wanted..
I mean, unless you're like me and make the most of farming bugs on every island you get, but that's because I have nothing better to do.
It is very tiresome and very demotivating when you farm all those tickets, only to have to deal with this kind of stuff. Especially when they cost 2k a pop, you find yourself grinding for hours or even days to get enough for a mass headhunt and come out with next to nothing you wanted..
I mean, unless you're like me and make the most of farming bugs on every island you get, but that's because I have nothing better to do.
Keepitcosmic
Flower-Loving Crybaby
Hey there!! i have every single amiibo card if you find yourself with an empty plot and want a dreamie, i’d be happy to give you one for free. i just spent 300+ tickets looking for raymond, so i totally get the frustration
trashpedia
🌟🌊
I'm starting island hopping tomorrow because Lionel is in boxes rn and I'm really nervous I'm going waste a bunch of tickets trying to find a villagers I want or some random I don't like is going to move in. I have around 20-30 villagers that would be considered "dreamies" of mine and trying to widen my choices but seeing how some people are getting repeat villagers, that's going to be a challenge >-<
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