Ok I went through all the unique bundles ever released in the world and compiled the info. Time Before Launch (TBL) means the amount of time between the announcment and the launch of the bundle. From oldest to newest release:
Splatoon 2 Bundle (feature: green/pink joycons)
Announced:
May 18, 2017 (JP,EU),
Aug 17, 2017 (NA)
Released: Sept 8, 2017
(NOTE: game was already released on July 21, 2017!)
-
TBL: 3 months, 21 days
- bundle came out over a month after game launch!
- joycons later released as standalone purchase
Mario Odyssey (feature: red joycons)
Announced:
Sept 13, 2017
Released: Oct 27, 2017
-
TBL: ~1.5 months
Diablo III (feature: 2 decals on dock, 1 decal on back of Switch)
Announced:
Oct 15, 2018
Released: Nov 2, 2018
-
TBL: 18 days
- the shortest length of time of all launches
- design was disappointing to fans as it was just a grey Switch with a couple of decals (they wanted a red Switch)
Pokemon: Let’s Go, Pikachu! (feature: yellow/beige joycons, color decals on dock, multiple decals on back of Switch)
Announced:
Sept 10, 2018
Released: Nov 16, 2018
-
TBL: over 2 months
- very ugly colors (one of the straps is literally brown)
Minecraft (feature: just includes stickers)
Announced:
Oct 31, 2018
Released: Nov 30, 2018
(NOTE: game was already released on May 11, 2017!)
-
TBL: 1 month
- bundle came out over 1.5 YEARS after game launch!
Super Smash Bros Ultimate (feature: decals on dock only)
Announced: Sept 13, 2018
Released:
Dec 7, 2018
-
TBL: almost 3 months
- only the dock had a decal while the Switch itself was basic
Dragon Quest XI S (feature: decals on joycons, decals on back of Switch, decals on Dock, blue joycons, wow!)
Announced:
Jun 12, 2019 (1 day after game announced)
Released: Sept 27, 2019
-
TBL: 3.5 months
- special edition was announced immediately after game itself was announced
- very impressive special edition
- Japan-only
Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (feature: decals on joycons, decals on back of Switch, decals on Dock, pink/purple joycons, wow!)
Announced:
July 25, 2019
Released: Oct 10, 2019
-
TBL: 2.5 months
- very impressive special edition
- Japan-only
Pokemon Sword & Shield Lite (feature: unique Switch Lite color, unique blue/pink joystick color, decals on back)
Announced:
July 10, 2019 (same day as the regular Switch Lite models were announced)
Released: Nov 1, 2019
-
TBL: almost 4 months
- announced immediately when the Switch Lite itself was announced
CONCLUSIONS
- the most elaborate special edition Switches (DQ and Disney) are exclusive to Japan
- average TBL is over 2 months
- TBLs have gotten longer over time, with the more recent special editions being announced the earliest in advance
- 2/3 of the only good ones (Pokemon Lite & DQ) were announced at the same time as the new hardware itself or game (respectively) were announced. That is, they were announced as soon as possible
- the shortest TBL (Diablo) was a disappointment, 2nd shortest TBL came out over a year after the game did and just had stickers, 3rd shortest was just a different color of joycons
- 2 were released a substantial time after the game's actual launch! (Splatoon 2, Minecraft)
- many big-name Nintendo games only got a bundle with a regular Switch or didn't even get a bundle at all. Most had no special editions (e.g. Legend of Zelda: BotW, Mario Kart 8, Mario Party, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Super Mario Maker 2, Link's Awakening, Luigi's Mansion 3)
No one's beholden to the past. Nintendo can break free from their historical patterns, so the past doesn't predict the future. But it seems like if they were going to give us a special edition – or at least if it's going to be a good one and not just a few decals on a standard model or a sticker book – they would've announced it by now.
There could still be a bundle but it will probably come with a download code like their other bundles, not the physical game. And it will probably not have cost savings (Pokemon Let's Go bundle was $100 more, Diablo III bundle was $60 more)
Btw, the AC 3DS XL special edition was announced Apr 17, 2013 and the game came out in NA June 9, 2013 (TBL: 53 days). Of course, that special edition had already been out in Japan since the previous year, so we already knew it existed as a possibility. We just passed the 53-day mark yesterday, which is when they announced AC-themed stickers for the Switch.
