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Mafia Paper Mario Thousand Year Door Mafia - Mafia Win!!

Okay, so I'm gonna take off the kid gloves for this one and get serious for once. Reads will come along, but in individual posts. I'll be going through every single individual post and interaction of every living player to try and get as good of an idea of their alignment as possible. Just for reference, here's my normal system of coloring.

Red - Likely Scum
Maroon - Scum-Leaning
Gray - Null
Green - Town-Leaning
Lime - Likely Town


I'll be starting to look into people's posts one at a time, starting at the top of the player list in the OP. It's currently 11:35 PM at the time of posting this, and I'll be starting things up right about now. Just a quick note though, I'm probably going to take a break to sleep, so these won't all come out at once. Also, I'll be posting thoughts on the situations at hand as the game progresses outside of these reads. Those will probably be below an individual read which I post later on.

That's enough rambling for me right now. Off I go...
 
My initial question was *CAN you expand on this please?* as a query, seeking more information but not any particular outcome from her. At the time I was wondering if she was claiming or soft-claiming, and was curious if she would follow up on that. But as soon as I saw your post and realised the strategy is more complex than I had considered (I do not fully understand the relative advantages and disadvantages for claiming in situations like this).

My second post was clarifying that I was not seeking a claim or any information that would jeopardise town.

I hope that clears things up, please let me know if not, and apologies for the confusion caused.
 
Alright, here's my first grilling session...ready to go.

Heyden
1. Male AEST (+10)
2. I'll probably just defend myself because I can usually find a reason to prove they're wrong lol
3. Being (hopefully) active as much as I can
4. 9 vs 4 vs 1 is a good lay out imo

- - - Post Merge - - -

oh I skipped 4, I've played with everyone here I think so no
These are just his answers to the RQs. I'm just putting this here to let you guys know that I won't continue to put these in other reads of people.


5 mafia is unlikely, I don't think Dolby would let that happen. I think Prima's just used to games with more scum members than usual
This is a fair assumption to make, putting my bias against using meta in arguments aside.


Originally Posted by PandaDarling
but don't forget the fact that mafia can only kill 1 person each night, so they might have a higher number since they cant kill as many people off as usual. just something to keep in mind.
There's probably 4 scum and an SK or 5 scum then I guess
This seems a bit quick to just kind of flip like that, with their last post saying that 5 scum is unlikely, though it seems like a very submissive post at that. My thought is that, based on his willingness to change his opinion on a dime, along with his general submissiveness when Panda made an argument, Heyden could either be Town who doesn't want to lead, or Mafia who doesn't want to get caught so easily. Personally, I'd lean more toward the former (based on this post alone), considering that, at the time, Panda was one of the main driving forces during the Day. With that in mind, getting away from a discussion like this would generate more time for the greater task of actually finding scum. Obviously there was a miss on the lynch Yesterday, but this shows that Heyden is indirectly proactive during the Day.


Originally Posted by PandaDarling
I don't want us to start arguing about how many mafia there is or isn't, instead of actually trying to find scum... seen it happen and turn D1 into a mess, im going to bed now, look toward to seeing the other players show up, see you all tomorrow. Good night.
I don't think it was an argument, more a discussion but ok. The only person trying to do anything rn is Trundle so I guess he's in my good books lol
Heyden's first statement reinforces the idea from the last quote. The second statement, while I disagree with it based on the timing of it, isn't something I want to look into, since things have changed since then in terms of who is active and who isn't.


Originally Posted by f11
If the question is being forwarded to me, it should be trundle or Hayden lynched. It's one part a gut theory, one part they town lean each other and one part a random lynch and lastly for the lols.
Originally Posted by Zendel
I have three guesses: Trundle, Heyden and Corrie.

Trundle - Forwarded a question to a newer and more vulnerable player rather than everyone, Corrie is an easy target. However I think the question's only purpose was to start a conversation but why would it only be directed towards Corrie?

Heyden - Said Trundle is "good in his books" is pretty silly and making someone the least of your worries because they are "the only one trying to do something" doesn't stand right with me.

Corrie - As Panda pointed out she was evasive in answering Trundle's question, which correlates with her previous games as she was rather evasive in those when she was mafia too but given the questions earliness she's off the hook. Anymore evasiveness in your posts and I'm onto you. At this point I don't think it's fair to question Corrie too much.
@f11, Apple never townleaned me I'm pretty sure, I only town leaned him and I don't really know why that makes me high priority
@Zendel, By town leaning Apple based more on a gut feeling that anything else you think I'm scum? wow
Added context quotes for this one, since they weren't directly quoted. I'm not going to look into Apple's post to see if he actually Town-leaned Heyden, since I don't think that's necessary to glean information from this post.

Anyway, his response to f11 sits as normal, and remains pretty objective to the situation. His response to Zendel, however, really sits kind of strangely. If not for the "wow" at the end, this could be seen as something completely normal to say, but that "wow" makes things seem like Heyden is trying to berate Zendel for trying to make connections in the game. This is completely counter-intuitive to what Zendel's reads were meant to do, which was to spur discussion. Hindering this puts Heyden in a position where people could easily scum-lean him.


Don't know why f11 voted me with like 0 evidence but I'm guessing it's a supposed 'reaction test' of some sort, not sure why I was their first choice of push so I'm definitely wary of them. Anyhow, nothing has seemed to really have happened I guess, but I don't really like the way Zendel just stormed off as soon as he was being pressured...
The problem with being reaction tested is that stating that somebody is probably reaction testing you is a very bad thing to do, and makes Heyden look pretty bad in the face of f11's vote.

As for his statement after this, the submissive behavior I mentioned earlier somewhat continues, albeit indirectly, in that he states that nothing has really happened over time. This, to me, looks like he's sitting and waiting for something to happen, rather than trying to make something happen himself. This post does only really have context in terms of the time between this post and his last, but this idea is proving to be a common theme for him at this point.


Originally Posted by f11
idrc, also it's really funny seeing the lack of effort in this game, tensu didn't even push on me more to get a proper answer lol.like imo, what's the point of asking a question if you don't even care about the answer. Laaaaaame
Yeah Tensu was super pushy and quick to point fingers in Themeless Mafia as town, right now he's very 'understanding' or unwilling to pursue someone which I found interesting (towards Zendel and f11 so far).
More meta, so I'd rather not dive into that.


Skimmed through a couple of old games but can't really find anything lol. Still want an answer from f11 on why she's suspicious of me besides my posts reminiscently reminding her of when I was scum in Luigi's Mansion. If they really are town I hope they can take this more seriously
also last time f11 was scum she made the rqs like in this game xoxo jk invalid but still
With the "jk invalid but still" being put aside, I just want to address this real quick, since I believe that using this idea as an argument is pretty absurd. If somebody wants to start the RQs up, then just let them and don't think anything of it, honestly. I feel like it's pretty random who puts them up anyways.


I doubt Nightmares it's scum, I think her cluelessness of town:mafia ratio was a slight town tell if anything because when scum she usually just mimics everyone else.

Anyway, I'm glad you guys picked up on Panda, from the start I definitely felt like something was off but never really felt like pointing it out because it was nothing more than an assumption, and that Nightmares push made me more wary lol. Not sure who I'm voting for yet, and I legit thought Zendel was a blue role with his 'I'll claim!' taunting but ok
Meta aside, not knowing the setup's Town:Scum is no reason to Town-lean somebody, considering that anybody can be easily clueless about the setup, whether they're actually clueless or they have at least somewhat of an idea based on their alignment.

The bolded part in the second paragraph is what I really want to focus on there. Not wanting to say anything about it seems very off-putting, and gives off an impression that Heyden has something to hide, and also goes back to the whole "waiting for others to be proactive" idea from before.


Skipping the next 5 posts, since there are no points of interest in any of them (Most have to do with the Flavor Meta)


Zendel which 4 people do you think are most likely to be scum? Just name 4 don't question it
Heyden has made a complete tone shift in this post, going from somewhat submissive and waiting for others to do all the work, to acting like he's in charge and waiting for other people to do work because he tells them to. There has been absolutely nothing to indicate that Heyden is in any way a Town leader at this point, so this really raises a big red flag.


Originally Posted by Nightmares
Town leans:

Tensu
Heyden
Jacob
Seroja
Mogyay
Apple

Null:
Zendel
f11
Amanda

Scum lean:
panda
What about Daniel and Prima?
Also do you have any reasoning for your suspicion on Panda or is she just there because everyone else is sus of her
This is kind of the same thing as the previous quote, but I don't think it's so such an extent as the previous. Nonetheless, it still shows.


sorry for being a prick LOL anyway I'm pretty impressed with your reads because you bring up some good points so I'll drop you for now
on an unrelated note I'm not sure if I'll be as active for the next 24-48 hours so I apologise for that x.x
I'm not sure I agree with dropping somebody because they have good reads. I feel like reads are a completely different part of the game than any other discussion, so if somebody does something suspicious, then it shouldn't be negated because the same person has good reads. I'm not going to hold it against you, since it seems like a lot of people do that, but it's something I want to keep in mind for the future.


OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Scum-Leaning
Heyden seems very unwilling to do anything by himself thus far, using the skills of other players to propel himself into a Town-like situation. He hasn't added very much to discussion, mainly playing sheep to what other people say during the Day. The discussion he has attempted to create has only been in the form of asking people he has already scum-leaned (though most of his scum-leans are not explicit) very counterproductive questions (i.e - 4 most likely scum). I place this as only Scum-Leaning, since it is still somewhat early into the game, and I don't typically go into solid red until later on.

Anyway, that's one down. 11 to go; next up on the list is Nightmares.
 
If I am being completely honest, I was highkey starting to think Seroja was mafia... I apologize for wasting posts on slight pushing against seroja. I probably would've started a huge case on her if she didn't die, which I was kinda leading up to when Zendel asked for my lynch candidates.

That being said the points f11 brought up about Zendel being mafia is pretty interesting, but I feel like analyzing Toad's actions is wrong...
I'll start writing up cases tomorrow morning
 
I'd like to hear Panda on who she think scum is, mainly because I'm still very inclined to vote for her today.
Honestly at this point I'd rather her just claim instead of everyone bickering over the same reasons because her softing has become quite oblivious, but I'll hold on for now.
Besides Panda, I wouldn't be against an f11 lynch, not sure about Zendel/Zefez because I'm still sitting on the fence
 
Guys, I'm here I will post reads and answer all questions and participate when I have time I know it's frustrating I'm not able to do so right away but I'm very busy, just to give you an idea I worked Friday from 9am to 3pm then with a few hours until my next job I have to eat and clean/laundry and I have a husband and dog that need my love and attention and then it's off to my other job which starts at 8:30pm to 3am then it's 4 hours sleep until I'm up at Saturday 7am to work until 3pm and then back to the other job 8:30 to 3 am and then work Sunday 11am to 6pm I know EOD is Sunday night but I will do my best to find time to post. Sorry for the inconvenience.
 
Hi guys, I feel like an apology and explanation is in order for why I left the site.

I'm sorry for leaving the game when it was ongoing. Don't think I left because of anyone here, no worries needed or anything.

I've been thinking about leaving TBT for a while now because I don't think I should be on here for most of the day anymore and if I tried to lessen my hours on here it wouldn't work, it isn't good for my health and I should be more active in my own life to prevent any further health issues. The site's a distraction and I don't like things to get in the way of what could be amazing, TBT can be amazing but it isn't amazing so I need to leave for something amazing...AMAZING!

I'm giving my departure a trial run, I will be leaving for the rest of the month and if I don't like it, I will come back earlier, I could pop in every now and then but I'm not sure. There's no need to be saying "goodbye forever" because this isn't "goodbye forever", it's a "see you later alligator, not a in a while Crocodile" type of thing. I won't be gone for THAT long either, haha.

I will see you guys later. :)

Good luck and catch some scum!
 
Hi guys, I feel like an apology and explanation is in order for why I left the site.

I'm sorry for leaving the game when it was ongoing. Don't think I left because of anyone here, no worries needed or anything.

I've been thinking about leaving TBT for a while now because I don't think I should be on here for most of the day anymore and if I tried to lessen my hours on here it wouldn't work, it isn't good for my health and I should be more active in my own life to prevent any further health issues. The site's a distraction and I don't like things to get in the way of what could be amazing, TBT can be amazing but it isn't amazing so I need to leave for something amazing...AMAZING!

I'm giving my departure a trial run, I will be leaving for the rest of the month and if I don't like it, I will come back earlier, I could pop in every now and then but I'm not sure. There's no need to be saying "goodbye forever" because this isn't "goodbye forever", it's a "see you later alligator, not a in a while Crocodile" type of thing. I won't be gone for THAT long either, haha.

I will see you guys later. :)

Good luck and catch some scum!

ah that's good too hear! I hope to see you around sometime :)

I see that Seroja got killed. That's really a shame, she was such a great player.

the quick replacement, the role fiasco, zendel even being replaced in the first place (the pressure) and zefe disappeared after one post, probably talking to scum buddies.

My thoughts exactly. His leaving only adds to my continuing worry of him being scum. So I can't really continue where I left off with him, I was waiting to see him press Lani. He was reluctant to do this and now he's gone so he won't be able to obviously.
 
Hi guys, I feel like an apology and explanation is in order for why I left the site.

I'm sorry for leaving the game when it was ongoing. Don't think I left because of anyone here, no worries needed or anything.

I've been thinking about leaving TBT for a while now because I don't think I should be on here for most of the day anymore and if I tried to lessen my hours on here it wouldn't work, it isn't good for my health and I should be more active in my own life to prevent any further health issues. The site's a distraction and I don't like things to get in the way of what could be amazing, TBT can be amazing but it isn't amazing so I need to leave for something amazing...AMAZING!

I'm giving my departure a trial run, I will be leaving for the rest of the month and if I don't like it, I will come back earlier, I could pop in every now and then but I'm not sure. There's no need to be saying "goodbye forever" because this isn't "goodbye forever", it's a "see you later alligator, not a in a while Crocodile" type of thing. I won't be gone for THAT long either, haha.

I will see you guys later. :)

Good luck and catch some scum!

I'm so glad you're okay and that nothing dreadful caused you to leave the site! I completely understand struggling to find a workable balance between time on here (or any site, really) and other priorities. Good for you for being proactive about dealing with this when you realised it was an issue for you. Hope you enjoy your break, and I look forward to seeing you around whenever you do come back to visit.

I'd love to play more mafia with you, too, just FYI.

Take care :)

- - - Post Merge - - -

the quick replacement, the role fiasco, zendel even being replaced in the first place (the pressure) and zefe disappeared after one post, probably talking to scum buddies.

I've been thinking about this and I'm going to have to disagree. Obviously we have more information now that Zendal came back to explain his departure, but I had reached a different conclusion from those events even prior to his post.

Replacements for roles have been an issue to some extent in the recent games here - I've noticed there has been more effort by hosts and players to seek replacements than when I was playing last year. In fact, the only reason I'm playing is because Toads in particular (though not the only one) had been so persistently seeking players and trying to line up replacements. I was subbed in for tae (eun) before the more usual timeframe in large part to keep the game running with as much activity as possible.

I'm aware the context of the two replacements are different in some respects - mine was for someone who was not active on tbt at all, and Zefez because Zendal asked to be replaced out. But in both cases Toads has acted swiftly to get a replacement in and caise as little disruption to the game as possible. That indicates to me that as a host, he values maintaining the integrity of his planned game setup, with all roles filled, rather than feeling pressed to fill a particular role due to the potential for the game being left unbalanced.

I just wanted to give my thoughts on this, and I won't be speculating on that kind of meta beyond this.

- - - Post Merge - - -

* ... a replacement in and CAUSE
 
Replacement timing and w/e is definitely not reliable. Toads is just swift to do so, he's already got one lined up in case Prima doesn't pop up so...
Anyway voting Panda, literally not addressing ANYONE. In the time you were giving us your daily schedule you could've given a few lynch candidates
 
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