Why you shouldn't island hop for Raymond (or any specific villager, really...)

[Mikaiah]

This is probably the dumbest post I've done all week. You're all welcome.

See, I had a dumb thought one day.
If you have 9 cat villagers and 1 open plot, what's the chance you get Raymond?

We know that the game rolls species first, with an equal weighting on every species.
There are 35 species in this game, so you have roughly a 1/35 chance of sighting a Cat villager (or any species) on a mystery island hop (~2.86%)

There are 23 cat villagers in the game.
ie, If you don't have any cats in your town, you then have a 1/23 chance of getting Raymond.
Altogether, that's a 1/805 (~0.12%) chance of getting Raymond on a mystery island hop, assuming you have no cat villagers.

But if you have 9 cat villagers, then the number of possible cat villagers goes from 23 to 14.
ie. if you have 9 cat villagers and 1 open plot, now you have a 1/14 chance of rolling Raymond, if the game already picked a cat villager.
Altogether, it's a 1/490 (~0.20%) chance of getting him. Better, but not great.

Another dumb thought:
What if you had all 3 Octopi? If you have all 3 (Zucker/Octavian/Marina), then assuming that island hops are still evenly rolling species first (which there's no evidence against) you have a 1/34 chance of sighting a cat villager (~2.94%)
I suppose if you just wanted to go after cat villagers specifically this could work, but it doesn't really seem that worth it, honestly.

However, with this method, you now have 17 cat villagers.
Total chance for getting Raymond is now 1/578 (~0.17%). I ended up worse, but I really should have known better LOL.

tl;dr: use campsite method.

updated 5/18 because this thread got bumped and i had the wrong number of cat villagers and it's going to haunt me

 

[Mezzanine]

deleted

 

[moon_child]

Yeah, not just Raymond actually but most popular villagers because most of them belong in species with a large pool to choose from. This is all not even including the fact that the NMT islands can yield SO. MANY. REPEATS. So many. Sometimes even back to back.

 

[Mikaiah]

Yeah, not just Raymond actually but most popular villagers because most of them belong in species with a large pool to choose from. This is all not even including the fact that the NMT islands can yield SO. MANY. REPEATS. So many. Sometimes even back to back.

i know right... the only reason i thought of the 3 octopus thing was because I ran into them over and over and over again on one of my escapades... lol

 

[toenuki]

i was considering island hopping for him... good thing i only have like 50 nmt max. Might still try but idk. What's the campsite method?

 

[Romaki]

Well, guess I have too many cats on my island. But I prefer taking someone I like over searching for a villager, that would drive me mad.

 

[Mikaiah]

i was considering island hopping for him... good thing i only have like 50 nmt max. Might still try but idk. What's the campsite method?

campsite method guide/faq here!

Well, guess I have too many cats on my island. But I prefer taking someone I like over searching forna villager, that would drive me mad.

Yeah, my original dreamie list was like 30 villagers long (it's been edited down somewhat but it's still abotu 15 villagers) so I'm usually happy when I island hop lol. Been laying it off since I got my amiibos back though ^^;;

 

[meggiewes]

It's not a reason to not island-hop. Some people like the rush of it just like some people like shiny pokemon hunting. I do agree that it isn't as convenient as the campsite method. The campsite method is just really long if you don't time travel.

 

[marea]

I am doing the campsite method right now and i gotta say that even though it is a better way of finding that one villager you want, it is much more boring than island hopping. Visiting the isalnds is actually super helpful and fun, aside from that little bit of disappointment you get when it is not a villager you want.

 

[Blueskyy]

Island hopping is fun if you have a general idea of what you’re looking for. Example: any cute lazy or peppy villagers...not looking specifically for just Sherb or just Audie.

 

[wearebap]

can somebody explain campsite method to me?

 

[kojuuro]

Yeah if you don't have the personality and are willing to TT, I'd suggest the campsite method as well. There's just too many villagers in the pool of cats, dogs, rabbits, etc. And in order to find a particular villager in that species, you need to be incredibly lucky.

Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020

can somebody explain campsite method to me?

If you want a particular villager (let's say Raymond) and don't have a smug on your island, the game will try to give you the missing personality in your campsite. You have a much better chance at getting him through the campsite method since there aren't a lot of smug villagers. If you TT enough, you'll get him eventually without spending the NMT to island hop.

 

[Iris_T]

Spoiler: Campsite method is awesome!

Just want to say that, sorry xD

 

[visibleghost]

i might be dumb but seeing the math exhausts me. i understand it, though, at least i think i do

i wonder why it was done this way and not so thst all villagers have an equal chance of appearing

 

[maple22]

I wish the game would gauge mystery islanders on personality. I had 3 lazy villagers at one point, and I’d still get lazies on the island. If you lack one personality type, the chances of getting a villager of that type should increase

 

[Blueskyy]

Ok I broke my own rule and hunted for Maddie or Ketchup specifically. I found Ketchup on ticket 29 though!

 

[Lavamaize]

Hey if island hoping for a villager is enjoyable for you and makes you happy go for it!

 

[Sharksheep]

Yeah I don't island hop for anyone specific. I have a big list of dreamies that I would love to have but I'm OK with having someone I never consider for a bit too. Unless I get super lucky I'm probably never going to have an island of dreamies since I don't plan on buying villagers from other people.

 

[Ananas Dragon]

I spent 175 nmt hopping for judy, later gave up.

turns out i forgot diana wasn't in my town so I accidentally campsited for judy and found her

 

[ctar17]

The way probability works, after 2,400 islands, 95% of players will have found Raymond by that point.

Just a quick correction: there are 23 cats in the game, so the chance to find Raymond is 1/805.

I island hop because I'm not looking for a specific villager, I've got a long list of those that I like, so it hasn't been a problem for me. Longest I've done is 70 to get a cranky I liked

Definitely use the campsite method if you're specifically after Raymond or Judy or any villager in a species with a lot of villagers.