Still no favorite villager 😞

[arh_79]

My daughter almost used 100 NMT’s to find her favorite villagers. Still no succes. Her favorites are Lucky, Stitches and Sherb. Does anyone knows how find them in a ‘easy’ way?

 

[FaeLeaf]

There are 413 total villagers in New Horizons as of the update. That means that everytime you go to an island, there is a 0.7% chance that she finds one of those three villagers. The odds aren't in her favor. No villager has a higher or lower chance of spawning, no matter how much you might feel like some appear more than others.

It's just bad luck. I used 150 NMT's before I ended up just having someone give me one of my dream villagers way back in the day.

 

[Firesquids]

Hello again!
Dang that's a bummer she didn't find anyone she's looking for, but if she's only looking for 3 out of over 400 villagers, it is a bit of a long shot.

To be honest, the best way for her to get those villagers is to buy their amiibo cards. Those cards allow you to invite that villager to live on your island at any time (after inviting them for a couple of days.) There are also knock off versions of these called "NFC cards" or "NFC Chips" that have the villager loaded on them, and work just like the card. These are often much cheaper than the official card.

Short of that, there's the New Neighbor Network board where you can make a thread requesting specific villagers
Alternatively, someone who owns those cards to invite them for you, like the thread linked bellow. (though unfortunately looks like their shop is closed right now.)

Cycling - 15TBT each - 100 free NMTs, 5 million IGB, 10 stacks of fish bait or 5 material stacks - 400+villagers available!(Back Mar 9!)

PLEASE READ! Temporary opening hours! Welcome! Villagers can be ready from 45-60 minutes or sometimes even less! Need a certain time? No problem, contact with your availability and I can arrange pick up for a specific day/time. :) I aim to offer a fast and friendly service, if you have any...

www.belltreeforums.com

 

[Olimar]

There are 413 total villagers in New Horizons as of the update. That means that everytime you go to an island, there is a 0.7% chance that she finds one of those three villagers. The odds aren't in her favor. No villager has a higher or lower chance of spawning, no matter how much you might feel like some appear more than others.

It's just bad luck. I used 150 NMT's before I ended up just having someone give me one of my dream villagers way back in the day.

To expand on the math for finding a specific villager (because it's a bit more complex than 3 divided by 413): the game rolls for species first (so 1/35, or a 2.86% chance of getting a specific species), and then rolls again for a villager within that species, which will vary for how many villagers are in that species. For example, to get Sherb, there is a 2.86% chance of the game rolling for goat, and then a 12.5% chance of getting Sherb specifically if the game rolls for a goat to appear, meaning for Sherb specifically it is a .357% chance of getting him out of all villagers.

Ironically, the math for each of those 3 villagers added together comes out to be... a .704% chance of getting one of those 3, but I feel like it's helpful to see the more in-depth math going on behind the scenes, because you're more likely to get a specific Octopus over a specific Cat (and also, you have to factor out the Sanrio villagers from calculations bc they can't show up on a NMT trip)

 

[FaeLeaf]

Ironically, the math for each of those 3 villagers added together comes out to be... a .704% chance of getting one of those 3

So I was right.

I actually didn't know anything about the way that math works. I figured it was a 100% random draw from the entire pool each time. Super interesting! Thank you for sharing.

 

[JKDOS]

There are 2 ways that can be considered easiest, but they do come at a monetary cost.

Option 1: Buying the amiibo.
Option 2: Adopting from another player. (Requires Nintendo Online)

 

[arh_79]

Thank you all for your kind replies and interesting opinions. I think it’s all about luck. That’s why you want to keep playing the game every time again

 

[ConfusedDad]

do u have nintendo online? currently lucky is living on my island and u could adopt him if u like