Static is finally out! Time to campsite reset!

[BluebellLight]

What's the probability of getting Poppy in my campsite?
I don't wanna do math rn lol

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On Statics moving day: Found Penelope with my mayor. Time to reset!

 

[Chibi.Hoshi]

Its totally random. 1 out of 333 (Amount of villagers in Animal Crossing New Leaf).

But I've heard there a higher chance of getting a certain personality if its missing from your village. Let's say your missing lazy and your campsite has lazy villagers often. To be honest I don't think that's true, I kept getting random villagers when I needed lazy many times over the past months.

 

[BluebellLight]

Wouldn't the odds be higher because you can't get double villagers plus the 16 being cycled? That removes 26 possibilities.
1/307(?) for poppy
If I accept any of my 10 dreamies I'm planning for my second town plus poppy....
11/307
Still pretty low.
So far I've seen...
Cousteau
Baabara(flashbacks to wild world)
And VIOLET (*shudders*)

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Oh wait it's nine villagers since I have a slot so it's out of 308 removing 25 possibilities

 

[FraudulentDimetrodon]

Chibi.Hoshi is right on the randomness. In addition to the 1 out of 333 (minus whichever villagers you have in your town/void) chance, don't forget the fact that the majority of your resets won't even have a camper.

As an anecdote, I tried campsite resetting for two villagers and documented the entire trainwreck. I resetted a total of 460 times, saw 97 villagers (so not even a quarter of all resets resulted in a camper), and not one was either of the villagers I was looking for. However, I saw 13 total repeat villagers (some of which camped out three separate times on separate days), which is already over 1/10th of all villager encounters I ever saw. I believe three of those 13 repeats had camped out prior to my campsite resetting shenanigans. I know that it's a statistical fallacy to think that it's less likely to see a villager if they've already camped out before, but it's really annoying nonetheless.

So what I'm saying is I hope you have better luck than I do!

 

[Ami Mercury]

Wouldn't the odds be higher because you can't get double villagers plus the 16 being cycled? That removes 26 possibilities.
1/307(?) for poppy
If I accept any of my 10 dreamies I'm planning for my second town plus poppy....
11/307
Still pretty low.
So far I've seen...
Cousteau
Baabara(flashbacks to wild world)
And VIOLET (*shudders*)

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Oh wait it's nine villagers since I have a slot so it's out of 308 removing 25 possibilities

When attempting to do the reset, I got Skye on the first try......but it took me over 700 resets to get Mira! (My 3rd favorite villager in my town.

During that time, some of what I came across were 2 Elvis, 10 Merengue, 4 Derwin, 3 Zucker, 2 Octavian, Julian, Chester, Drago, Molly, Croque, Biskit, 3 Fang, and even 4 Stitches!

So good luck in your attempts!

 

[BluebellLight]

I hope I don't have to reset for three days like you did for Mira! RNG gods have always hated me with the exception of getting shiny pokemon. Past 10 resets have got me nothing

 

[CR33P]

ha you have a 0.003 chance of getting poppy

 

[BluebellLight]

ha you have a 0.003 chance of getting poppy

frickle frackle. After a lot of nothing I just got fang, he's popular but not my dreamy. I do like him though. Still resetting!

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AHHH I got Erik my first try last time I tried this but I'm just getting bad villagers like tEX or nothing at all

 

[Chibi.Hoshi]

Wouldn't the odds be higher because you can't get double villagers plus the 16 being cycled? That removes 26 possibilities.
1/307(?) for poppy
If I accept any of my 10 dreamies I'm planning for my second town plus poppy....
11/307
Still pretty low.
So far I've seen...
Cousteau
Baabara(flashbacks to wild world)
And VIOLET (*shudders*)

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Oh wait it's nine villagers since I have a slot so it's out of 308 removing 25 possibilities

Chibi.Hoshi is right on the randomness. In addition to the 1 out of 333 (minus whichever villagers you have in your town/void) chance, don't forget the fact that the majority of your resets won't even have a camper.

Oh yes sorry I forgot to mention that part. My bad.

 

[BluebellLight]

Started resetting for today. Got friga.

 

[Ami Mercury]

You are not the only one currently resettin'. I'm tryin to get Chester da Panda!!!

 

[BluebellLight]

We can reset together lol. I just got Groucho. XP. I wish the odds were better. I had poppy once when I was full T_T