Moving away - random or not?

Tenyu

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I've been playing AC for GameCube on and off since it was released a decade or so ago. In that span of time, I still haven't been entirely able to figure out when and why a villager might decide to leave and how to prevent it, if possible.

The pattern that seems to be the most consistent and predictable is what I've nicknamed "fifteenth syndrome." Once fourteen villagers have moved in, they're more likely than not to stay put. The fifteenth villager, however, is likely to move out after a little more than a week to be replaced by someone of the same personality type. This pattern is sometimes broken, however.

Sometimes in conversation, a villager will tell you that they want to move, prompting the player to tell them whether to stay or go. Does what the player chooses, and the villager's reaction, actually mean anything?

What am trying to get at here, in typical long-winded fashion, is that after twelve years I'm still confused as to how the moving system works in ACGC, especially after having played ACWW and ACCF, where the moving system is so straightforward. Any ideas?
 
I'm just as confused as you are. I basically have 13 villagers who are permanent, and two who come and go frequently, being replaced with new animals. The 13 have been in my town for years (most of them for 8+ years). I used to travel by train a lot, and some of those animals moved to/from my other town. Some even moved away and then back. I don't know if the train travel somehow makes some of them "permanent" or what; I've never been able to figure it out. But I do know there are some animals I'm stuck with, and any new neighbors won't stick around no matter what. Fortunately, I like most of my villagers, so I can't really complain too much.

As for the discussions about whether an animal will move out, I don't believe those conversations mean anything on GameCube. I haven't seen any correlation between what they say and whether they move out or not.
 
I played City Folk regularly and Del was still in my town even after a year of playing. My approach is to enjoy seeing them while they are in town.
 
Poncho would always say to me he is thinking about moving and I say "go for it". And somebody else would move away. I'm pretty sure it's random.
 
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