Do we know if mystery island villagers are completely random?

[Sonrio]

I don’t think I’ve ever found a solid answer. I know the Campsite method seems to work for variety of personalities, but does islanding work the same way? Are you more likely to get a certain personality type of villager that you don’t have versus getting a type you have 2 or 3 of?

I ask because I’m currently in a dilemma involving getting a villager from someone but don’t know if I want to do that or try to luck it on my own even if I have a villager of the same personality type. For me it seems random.

 

[moonchu]

i can't say definitively, but in my 151 nook miles ticket experience and having 3 crankies in my town, i definitely still got lots of crankies on my tours. i'm pretty sure it's random, and i believe that the game rolls species first - then personality.

 

[fallenchaoskitten]

It has been theroized due to major statistical test by a user on TBT (I'm sorry i forgot your username and thread but I know ththe profile pic is on Caroline the squrriel T^T) then proven fact via data mining that IT IS RANDOM, but probably not in the way you think it is.

The game first RNGs which species you will get.
The game then RNGs which villager of that species.

That is why you run into a A LOT of duplicates for villagers with not many villagers in their species.

Going at certain times for certain personalities was a bogus rumor.
The personalities on your island have no affect.
Making orville blush for better odds was also a bogus rumor.

Again, this was theorized by someone here after extensive testing then proven to be the current fact by data mining the games current state.

 

[Blueskyy]

Species definitely affects it. Marina pops up a lot for me.

 

[fallenchaoskitten]

P.S. i hope they patch it to where it just rolls for any villager, no species first stuff. I'm tired of always running into octavian...

 

[usa-chan]

this thread goes deeply in about the rng for mystery islands with statistics! bless the op's heart for doing all that math, i could never.

Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests

Hello all, There is lots of talk about the specific pattern that is used for villagers on mystery islands. I would like to present my findings in this thread and open it up for possible statistics discussions to confirm this theory even more. First, I'd like to thank Selkie for sending me...

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