Mafia The Real Housewives of Mafia - Town Wins

Arstotzkan said:

You made a post I think with saying Dolby's points against Dad were good but you think he's incorrect or something I think that's the most I saw of it

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Endless said:

All logic of why dad is town is specified within that post you're referring to. Unless you mean linking you Dolby's original points?

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Arstotzkan said:

This is ridiculous we shouldn't be focusing on crier we have 15 minutes left in the god damn day

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Endless said:

First of all, regarding Dolby's assault on Dad:
Funnily enough, I actually follow most of Dolby's points. I don't think he's stretched anything too far, and I think his points are perfectly reasonable. (Especially with regard to assuming you'd get a quicktopic with your jailee when your jailing was a night action)
However, Dolby is most likely incorrect.
Why? Because last night's kills make absolutely no sense unless Dad is in fact jailer.
Or, more to the point, only make sense should a jailer exists, and in the event that a jailer exists, it's Dad.

Why? Because there's no way that busdriver was the only protective role in the game. That's wildly unlikely - and more to the point, mafia have no good reason to assume there isn't any. Yet they were comfortable killing both glow and Farobi.

What this suggests is that they were comfortable with the assumption that there would be no protective role one either. The only reasonable method they could've come to this assumption is if there existed a protective role that had a good reason to not target either of them. The only protective role that fits this description is jailer, because targeting either of them would've blocked them as well.

Consequently, I'm chunking Dad's play down to him ****ting the bed, and would be nothing but absolutely and completely floored if he flipped mafia. (Or TP)

With regard to the PM between Panda and I:
I honestly can't be bothered fetching it. The entirety of the contents are her asking if I'm willing to tell her my role in return for her telling me her role. The only reason this is relevant is because that's a strategy called "scouting". If you're asking that question, then you're going to claim villager. This is why I said no when she asked me, because by asking that question I'd already learnt her role.
The reason Third party is extremely unlikely to do "scouting" is because it limits your own options as a cost for obtaining a small amount of information. This is much, much more useful for a member of a team than someone flying solo. Consequently, I really doubt Panda is mafia.

Now, to the most important thing - who is arsonist. If we don't get them soon, a bunch of people will blow up and change the game into a likely extremely disadvantageous state.
Am I biased because I'm one of those people? Yes. But that's beside the point.

I've narrowed down to this list:
Dolby
Mog
Sensai
Dedenne (I ISO'd her, and at no point does she make any connection between Arsonist and Mafia - moreover, she doesn't show any surprise whatsoever at most people claiming that it's third party. This is honestly my leading read for Arsonist. The only thing that makes me hesitant at all is this post where Dedenne states she "75% believe [my] doused claim". Why 75% Dedenne? What reason would you have to doubt that it was legitimate? Do you think, for example, that both Heyden I are mafia and we're lying about it? I really want clarification here.)

The reason I haven't put Chele(Trundle) or Zendel on this list is because I was doused n1. Given that I was townread by almost everyone day 1, this means that it's likely that arsonist was actively following the thread - not too telling by itself, but given that neither of these two were, I believe it's unlikely that either is arsonist.

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Endless said:

Even though dedenne is a fine lynch, someone flipping to Sensai would make me a happy man.

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Endless said:

Even though dedenne is a fine lynch, someone flipping to Sensai would make me a happy man.

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Arstotzkan said:

What's up with you saying "hey dedenne is gud" 2 times in quick succession and then going to "hey flip to sensai that'd be great"

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Endless said:

@Kat I'd get it, but Vanessa already has.

- - - Post Merge - - -

There's a reasonable chance dedenne is mafia, I just want to lynch arsonist before they prematurely throw a match.

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amazonevan19 said:

I have very strong reason to believe that Sensai is town. I cannot say why at this time. Please vote dedenne.

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Arstotzkan said:

Reading your post, two questions:

-Why wouldn't Doc be in the game? That's a protective role.
- Sounds like theres more evidence you put down for Dedenne arso than Sensai. Why Sensai arso over Dedenne arso?

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amazonevan19 said:

I have very strong reason to believe that Sensai is town. I cannot say why at this time. Please vote dedenne.

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Dad said:

This is a stupid lynch did Panda even make any strong reads since she was called out for it? Don't have time to reread thread. This should be a lynch that stays on her. Of course she sheeps Dedenne too.

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Endless said:

1. Because glow died, essentially, as that's where any protective role would be. (Which is also why Dad is town)
2. I'm basing my reasoning on dedenne not being arsonist on the arsonist making that one crier message. Complete syntax disjunction, it can't be dedenne if they did indeed make that message.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Fair enough.

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Dad said:

This is a stupid lynch did Panda even make any strong reads since she was called out for it? Don't have time to reread thread. This should be a lynch that stays on her. Of course she sheeps Dedenne too.

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