Mafia Five Nights at Freddy's Mafia | Endgame | Security Guards and BB Win

Dolby said:
The optimal town strategy for this game actually includes a no lynch
Click to expand...

this is not true.


D1 was either
A. 2m v. 10t
or
B. 3m v.9t


NL D1: 0% chance of lynching mafia..... gives us this D2:

either
A. 2 scum v. 9 town ~22% chance of lynching mafia
B. 3 scum v. 8 town ~37% chance of lynching mafia

LYNCH D1: on D1 we had either

2 scum v. 10 town ~20% chance of lynching mafia
3 scum v. 9 town ~33% chance of lynching mafia

either we lynch mafia, or we didn't. yay if we did, but the worst case is that we didn't, which would give us this d2

2. scum v. 8 town ~25% chance of lynching mafia
3 scum v. 7 town ~47% chance of lynching mafia

which is still better odds that NLing. we statistically have less of a chance of lynching mafia D2 by not lynching D1. not to mention lynching D1 gives valuable information to town, regardless if the person lynched flips town or mafia. you can read into how genuine certain pushes are when a town gets lynched, or read into any reluctance if a maf gets lynched.
 
Kirbystarship said:
##buy: Nun's Guns

this will prob get me killed, so if we have any doc, please protect me.

I can see scum Glow making that big wall of text. I just find it weird people called her out on not maing a big wall of text and then she does it.

I'm okay with a Amazon lynch, I feel like that could help us with finding if Glow is town or not? Amazon seems to avoid glow/ not talking about her a lot in the reads.
Click to expand...

idk about wallpost though. most of it was quotes and only went through like 4 people in detail. i'm not sure why you're scumreading me for participating in the game now that it's the weekend and i have more time
 
Kirbystarship said:
##buy: Nun's Guns
Click to expand...

I friggin' knew it!
WWBc3cD.gif


I saw you voted for Evan already. If Evan is whom you wish to lynch, then I won't argue against that too much. Dolby is convinced he's scum and if you feel the same way then maybe it's because you're on to something. You both know his playstyle far better than I do. He's not my top scumread but I must admit we'd get a lot of information out of his death at this point. However, should Evan turn out to be town, you pretty much have to go after Dolby or one of his lackeys with those guns I feel. Else we could be in a lot of trouble. Godspeed, my friend!
 
Glow, what I meant by that was that we could NL without effecting our total number of MLs (do the math, it works, and I was hoping to be able to leave it until LYLO if I was alive then). One NL, in this setup wouldn't effect the MLs we have, and actually gives us a bigger lynch chance post if we do it to change from 5v3 to 4v

And I feel this pushes the final nail into the coffin of Evan's theory and serves as town indicative for Bianca, as, again, relatively newer scum would probably go for a ML over a NL
 
Sataric said:
I friggin' knew it!
WWBc3cD.gif


I saw you voted for Evan already. If Evan is whom you wish to lynch, then I won't argue against that too much. Dolby is convinced he's scum and if you feel the same way then maybe it's because you're on to something. You both know his playstyle far better than I do. He's not my top scumread but I must admit we'd get a lot of information out of his death at this point. However, should Evan turn out to be town, you pretty much have to go after Dolby or one of his lackeys with those guns I feel. Else we could be in a lot of trouble. Godspeed, my friend!
Click to expand...

I feel like lynching Amazon could give us more info. If Amazon is town, I want to focus on Dolby and maybe Bianca as well. If amazon is scum, then I would focus on Glow cause he seems to talk very little with Glow and not talk about her in his reads.
 
I trust ya Kirby just shoot whoever you suss of anyway if ever Evan or Glow is shot who do you guys think who to lynch? Maybe we can discuss about Heyden's behavior?
 
you shoud use the gun today imo. preferably a considerable amount of time before the lynch happens.

A. 2 scum v. 9 town ~22% chance of shooting mafia
B. 3 scum v. 8 town ~37% chance of shooting mafia

if you shoot scum [yay]

if you misfire [worst case]

A. 2 scum v. 8 town ~ 25% chance of lynching mafia ---->if mislynch ----> D3 2v6 (1 ML left)
B. 3 scum v. 7 town ~ 42% chance of lynching mafia ----> if mislynch ----> D3 3v5 mylo (60% chance to lynch scum)


if you don't shoot you risk dying and losing the "ML" that a gun gives back to us. and we need it since we NL'd d1
 
Yeah we can also discuss about Bianca's last min vote but my guts tells me that shes in doubts

If ever you have a gun dont tell me whe youre in doubts ur gonna shoot mog (padumtsk)
 
Dolby said:
Glow, what I meant by that was that we could NL without effecting our total number of MLs (do the math, it works, and I was hoping to be able to leave it until LYLO if I was alive then). One NL, in this setup wouldn't effect the MLs we have, and actually gives us a bigger lynch chance post if we do it to change from 5v3 to 4v

And I feel this pushes the final nail into the coffin of Evan's theory and serves as town indicative for Bianca, as, again, relatively newer scum would probably go for a ML over a NL
Click to expand...

i don't understand, you're saying that the gun gives us back the ML we lost, correct?

n1 was risking the 10-11% chance of kirby dying..... that's not worth NLing for
 
glow said:
i don't understand, you're saying that the gun gives us back the ML we lost, correct?

n1 was risking the 10-11% chance of kirby dying..... that's not worth NLing for
Click to expand...

Nah, I was dumb and entirely disregarded Kirby. In a theoretical setup where there is only the maf's night kill, and no possibility of others, a NL could take place without effecting the MLs we have
 
Hi. I'm off to bed now. It's super late here. I'll catch up with everything tomorrow, but FYI, I don't even know if Kirby has enough to buy the guns yet (and I'm still on mobile, so I can't check).

Also, glow, your puzzle answer was incorrect.

Tomorrow I will be posting a little update with everybody's current balances listed, and Kirby may or may not get the guns.
 
Last edited:
@Bowie, Guns cost 160, at this point everybody has at least 187 automatically, so Kirby has his guns
 
oh my math was wrong oops i'm so bad at math lmfao

whatever too lazy to fix

- - - Post Merge - - -

someone do it the right way pls

don't include kirby in the possibility of who can be shot and divide by the correct # (which i didn't do)
 
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