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What are the odds of getting a real painting from Redd?

Less than half from my experience.

I have perhaps about 30 counterfeits (can't be bothered checking) laying around and still have to get the Perfect, Scary, Strange and Warm paintings. It's a pain.

The paintings sold at Nook's are never fakes and are just a lot easier to collect. There's only two of them, though.
 
I agree that most paintings seem to be counterfeit. I would guess that 1 in 3 paintings are real.
 
Every time Redd visits it's 1 real out of the 4 paintings for me.
 
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