Mafia TBT Mafia-Korean War (Cancelled)

Aronthaer said:

alright, it's almost 4 AM here, but I promised reads and reads you shall get. I'm posting my reads on everyone in the game, except for those who were replaced (it's kinda tough to formulate opinions on them tbh).

Color key:

strong town lean
town lean
weak town lean
neutral
weak scum lean
scum lean
strong scum lean

Crys: all of their posts are short and pointless, but I've come to expect that from them by now. I'm hoping they contribute more, but something about their posts doesn't sit right with me.

Miharu: Genuinely seem like they want to help. their posts don't strike me as particularly useful and they seem to be sheeping a bit but I think they're on the level.

Oak: their posts seem short and worthless to me. They claimed that we based their performance "solely off meta" but has given us nothing else to work with.

Kirbystarship: I'm very, very close to scumleaning them, because I have a reason that I can't disclose that makes me think their claim is false. but, in the end, I decided that I'm going to let them slide... for now.

Bluepikachu47: They cracked very easily under pressure, and were extremely quick to defend themselves as soon as someone was suspicious of them. I'm leaning scum.

Blu Rose: I'll probably get shot for saying this, but I don't find them nearly as suspicious as other people do. only putting a slight lean on them because some of their posts seem off.

Minties: Big red flags all over the place. Fighting so hard trying to lynch people no one else wanted to and are now confirmed town (Sataric especially), extremely defensive, slipping all over the place, they're a wreck. My vote goes to Minties.

Jacob: Haven't posted much, but they seem to be helping some.

Endless: I really wish I could tell you what I think, but their posts are all over the spectrum, and thus my thoughts. I'm not sure how to feel about anything they've done so far.

Tom: Posts bother me. they're short and don't contribute anything.

Entropy: No thoughts, they're hard to read.

Ness: They claim they're busy, but such an absence of posts always makes me suspicious.

Shiida: posts are helpful and seem sincere to me.

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Nicely said.

Aron, care to share some of your OWN opinions? I'm pretty sure you just read back and based your 'reads' on other peoples thoughts and opinions because I can see a few lines which have obviously just been reworded from some people... If you look through my post filter you can clearly see that my posts are not 'short' and 'worthless', but rather your posts have been that. Honestly I can't tell if you're trying to restrict yourself from saying too much or if you really are just bad at contributing for town. Although, I agree I haven't done much to help town either, but I've been busy with half yearlies/semesterly's/mid-terms, but I will progress to be more active within the next 24 hours hopefully.

Just finished reading up. Here is the half-written case I had on Xine: (As requested.)

Now let's tackle the big fish. There's so much wrong with Xine's case here that it almost hurts.

xine said:

Honestly, this post is one of the most telling I have read in this game so far. It is the embodiment of basically everything I mentioned in my first few paragraphs, specifically the lazy mafia post-style that?s filled with hollow reads. The first line is a nice way of making an excuse for him not having anything new or useful to say throughout the rest of his post.

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This entire paragraph is awful. Let me tackle it from the top. The reasoning here for Ashtot to be mafia is "lazy mafia tend to blend in by not giving strong/clear reads", which is a premise invented in this post. Now, this might initially seem logical and reasonable to you. I'll give you a hint: It isn't. Of course, I'm not all talk, I'll explain why: Replace mafia with the word "player". Now reconstruct the sentence to this: "Lazy players tend to not give many strong reads" <- this is a pretty factual sentence. Now, let's tackle the other half of the segment. "Lazy mafia tend to not give clear reads. What about Ashtot's reads were not clear? He made his standpoint very clear here. The reason this post seemed reasonable is because it drew upon a faulty premise constructed in the post. It's reasonably skillful manipulation. I doubt a town player needs to do this.

The first line being an excuse to not say anything new through-out the post is a reasonable and potentially correct observation, but a very weak indicator by itself. I don't have an issue with that portion of the sentence.

xine said:

The second paragraph is a quite blatant way to say ?I?m sheeping Entropy and it?s all good dw about it?

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Last time I checked Ashtot's post featured reasoning followed by an "and". Entropy being the person pushing it gave it credence it otherwise wouldn't have had. Everyone acknowledges this. It was a marginal factor in addition to his other reasoning. To dumb it down to him sheeping is a horrible mis-representation.

xine said:

and these two sentences are unbelievably contradicting:

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The following two sentences are "although I don't know their playstyle well and wouldn't go as far to call it scummy, I think it's probably an indicator", which is similar to "This, combined with her shady voting makes me suspicious of her, but I think it's possible that she could be Town." Which is something Ashtot said as town in his reads list Xine's quoting from another game. Hence, she wasn't attempting to analyze what Ashtot was saying at all, instead attempting to utilise any information she could to add credence to her push. She's not trying to provide an objective view of whether he's mafia or not, she's trying to get him lynched. The difference is huge.

(Post-night-phase note: I had Ashtot's game that she quoted the day 2 of pulled up as well, and Ashtot said a total of 1 post with 1 line in that game before day 2. I was confident this would fit as a nice contradiction in the case, but I hadn't got there yet. I haven't checked for errors, but I can't see any on a skim.)

KirbyStarShip: Lock town. If I ever see anyone pushing this player again I'm going to get irritated. Historically Dolby has made very integral storyline town-sided role names as roles, not fake claims. I don't see why he'd change now. I was concerned before the night ended that he might actually be a third party, but since I doubt we're dealing with 4 third party players, they're completely, absolutely, and without a doubt town. There's no reason to address this anymore. The role name is all-telling.

Entropy: Overall providing useful new information to the day and managing to stay logical the whole while. This read is enhanced if Minties flips what I think she'll flip. I'm going to have to come clean here: I had a weak thought that Entropy was mafia for her over-questioning of me day 1, because I thought she'd then use that to push on me. To my surprise and pleasure, she then went on to decide my answers were reasonable and didn't make anything of it. (Hence implying that she was asking because she wanted to know the answers, not because she wanted an opening to push.)

Shiida: I'm going to take an unpopular opinion here and say that Shiida is town. As far as I'm concerned, they've sufficiently defended all of the points people have presented against them. And... what sort of mafia posts this? I'll give you a run-down on how a new mafia plays: They ask their team about things and try to make sure that they know what they're doing, and they're super-conscious about things they're posting - they don't really want to draw attention to themselves. This post is uh, genuine, spontaneous, very incorrect, and a number of other things. Over all it's just feels super real and I don't see a mafia player doing it. Perhaps I'm over-analyzing this, but I doubt it.

Jacob: Overall contributes and makes reasonable points. I don't really like this post, since none of Aron's questions really actually revealed any information mafia wouldn't have had anyway, but it doesn't detract all that much from his other play and I can see how he might have genuinely misconstrued this in his head. I don't mind him saying there's a mafia within Oak and I - because, well, to put it bluntly, there is. I'd honestly be shocked to see Oak flip town at this point.

Aronthaer: He's most likely a power role from something he said earlier in thread. Now mafia, it's your move to decide whether this is my genuine read, or whether I'm pulling a next level play to make you think that. Over-all though he hasn't provided much content and can't be read that much.

Byuntae/Cass123: The content here isn't really telling and over-analyzing it is probably pointless.

Esphas: I'd love to see this guy post more.

inklingCadbberry: I have no comment, since they have no comment(s). Ha.

?Miharu?: I actually had Miharu as slightly town until this post. I'm really unsure of how to take it. All I know is that if Minties flips mafia here like I think she will, this post is going to look really bad.

?LiamslashWonderK?: Waiting to see what oak flips to have a real read here. I really didn't like his over-defense here. It looks really bad if Oak flips what I think he'll flip.

Crys: I'm historically bad at reading Crys. Only thing I really remember is that as mafia they tend to hyper-bus. Which means that most of their pushes are their partners if they're mafia. (Hence, if we see 2-3 mafia flips they've never pushed on, then they're probably town.) If I were to place a read, it'd probably be a mafia read, but, as I said, I'm historically bad at reading Crys.

Tom: I dislike how he's pushing on Kirby, it rubs me the wrong way. Other than that he's just being good ol' Tom. Less youtube videos though.

Blu Rose: Something irritates me about the way they seem on coffee in all of their posts. I looked over their posts twice and I can't really place it. I don't do gut feelings, so this is just going to sit as a very slight red read.

Bluepikachu47: They're probably mafia/third party. Their reaction when they entered the day makes me believe they have something to hide, and it was a really strong and awkward reaction. And their defence when people pressured them was like an egg cracking. This is a reasonably likely mafia.

Ness: I'm still waiting for him to come back and talk, but I still have the same read on him I had early day 1. Nothing much to say here.

oak: Horrible inconsistency, attempting to appear like he's making reads without really making reads, and all around awful posting. I could say more here but I've already said it. There's no reason to waste any more text on this case, it's old, it's solid, and I don't see any way it'll change.

Minties: Be patient and wait for the case in the post after this one.

Endless: This guy seems really scummy, can't place it though.

oak said:

Aron, care to share some of your OWN opinions?

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I did. I spent several hours reading everyone's posts, one at a time. These posts are my own thoughts on the game, and I don't really care whether you believe that or not, it's true.

Aronthaer said:

I did. I spent several hours reading everyone's posts, one at a time. These posts are my own thoughts on the game, and I don't really care whether you believe that or not, it's true.

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I believe you, but I feel like many of your scum leans are because people's posts are "short and worthless" and IMO you need more than that. Do u think u could find other reasons?

Still part way through the post. I've been looking through things for hours at this point. I'll come back to this later.

The case is a real treat though.

Our 위대한수령 has fallen! What are we to do?


So Entropy, are we to jump on a Minties Bandwagon? (Even though you said that we should and I've already sent in my vote lol, so don't answer please)

Aronthaer said:

What's that supposed to mean? I'm having trouble formulating anything on this game, I don't have a ton to work with here. I've had this game open in a separate tab almost all day so I can catch up on posts when they get posted.

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hehe there is so much to work with this game, so much to do, so much analyze

With the soon-to-be backing of Endless, it appears as if Minties will be our eventual lynch. I personally really like Entropy's case, even though it still brings up the general irritability of Minties (which I view as a normal aspect of Minties' gameplay).
I would ask if we could shorten Day to 24 hours, but we'd be losing valuable conversation time that we can use to our advantage.

Oh and by the by--I haven't even started Miharu and up from the playerlist (not that it would help anyways), so I'll do that now...?

I missed the part where I said Lynch Kirby can you quote that for me

Also Politburo don't out ya numpties, ya die it's game over read the thread.

Oh btw I'm doctor

THE ABOVE STATEMENT IS A JOKE. DO NOT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.

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that clear enough 4 u

Tom said:

Also Politburo don't out ya numpties, ya die it's game over read the thread.

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So quite literally only the Townies/Politburo Members (assuming they're all Townies) can vote~
So NEVERMIND all that I said about the Mafia just jumping on the bandwagon ehehe, I'm stupid and can't read the second section that says "Voting Rules"

actually I could see minties as scum considering that Sataric died night 1. If she flips scum I'll be less sus of endless I guess for ~~balancing~~

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also what experienced town member say this "Aronthaer: He's most likely a power role from something he said earlier in thread. Now mafia, it's your move to decide whether this is my genuine read, or whether I'm pulling a next level play to make you think that. Over-all though he hasn't provided much content and can't be read that much."

It seems like Endless is phishing for prs and for someone who was town wouldn't announce it in the thread...

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What the cuck I can't read nevermind that oops

Tfw wrong color

WonderK, thank you so much for replacing this game. When you are done reading back up on this thread, please answer these questions (I think Cass123 did this already):


a) What is your time zone?
b) You're shown a red button, a blue button, a pink button, and a yellow button. Which one do you click?
c) How much mafia experience do you have?
d) What is your avatar from?
e) Someone dares you to jump a 2 meter gap with a 20 meter drop for $20, do you do it?
f) What alignment did you want to be this game?Why?:
g) How do you react under pressure?:
h) How active do you plan on being this game?:
I) How well do you think you scumhunt(Look to find mafia)?Why?:
J) What should we expect from your play-style this game?:

Normally I don't like to push replacements as soon as they joined the game, but it bothers me that both Liam and Tae dropped out. Liam was excited and ready for this game, but early on iirc he was getting people suspicious of him (I was suspicious of him). Was the stress to much for him and made him drop out?

Same thing can be said for Cass123. Tae is good player and generally doesn't like when people can mess up a game. (I've also played against him when he was indeed mafia, I like to say that he has a very similar meta to Oak - As mafia he plays more serious [theres some more to it but not much can be said about Tae's Day 1 behavior]). I don't doubt that Tae did have things going on IRL that lead him to be on TBT less, but even still I think this is the first time he hasn't at least tried to play past Day 1.
What I am trying to say is that Tae probably felt bad for not being able to put 100% as mafia and wanted to be replaced.

This may be a ****ty point to bring up (Also fairly invalid, but it crossed my mind), Dolby was very scared about the replacements. If he didn't find replacements within like 3 hours the game could've been cancelled. Could that be due to one of the players being replaced was mafia?

I just want to urge WonderK and Cass123. If you aren't mafia please help me believe you. I am a biased player I will admit so I need to see you guys really trying and not coasting. With that I wish you guys good luck this game. =)

I am of the opinion that Dolby would have cancelled the game regardless of their alignment because if all three assassin's shot, kirby wasn't blocked and mafia used all their KP N1 would have been a bloodbath.

@Jacob for tae I don't think it's stress he's getting his stomach pumped and is sick again iirc.

Aronthaer said:

Oh btw I'm doctor

THE ABOVE STATEMENT IS A JOKE. DO NOT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.

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that clear enough 4 u

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are you third party?

What the cuk I can't read again disregard this.