Mafia TBT Mafia XV: The Siren's Call (Game Over/Mafia & Third Party Win!)

Sataric said:

If I die tonight, I will assume that was intentional! Nice photo shop skills, in any case.
Now I shall respect Tina's wishes and remain silent until the day post is up!
Oh, and I would like to dedicate my previously linked song to Tsundere.

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ryan88 said:

I role blocked Tom

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ryan88 said:

I role blocked Tom

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ryan88 said:

I role blocked Tom

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oath2order said:

Actually I'll continue posting.

Why tell us this?

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ryan88 said:

I role blocked Tom

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ryan88 said:

Well anyway I think I'll die tonight unless i get saved by a doc.

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Lauren said:

i ordered chicken, hope youre all happy.

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Yui Z said:

Crystal, the way you're playing is starting to bother me. It's like you're in your own little world, oblivious to the fact that many people have called you out and you haven't responded to them at all. Why aren't you defending yourself, hm?



Why should we assume that just because role names are similar to the last game, that the alignments are going to be completely the same. Tina obviously has some tricks up her sleeve.

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Tom said:

Crystal is a bit suspicious I agree. Someone to build a case on maybe?

As for the names, unless we start seeing more people die with names similar to previous roles I would hold off on lynching x because x was y.

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Minties said:

@Dad

I've been attempting to respond to anyone that was willing to respond to me because I was trying to create some Day One discussion. I have been reading the thread, but I do work 8 hours a day Mon - Fri and pack when I get home (the day/night ends at 8am my time, so I miss participating in the bulk of discussion and wake up to ~15 pages). I'm honestly not try to stand in the shadows and condense everything in one BIG post due to time constraints. I obviously don't want to publicly claim because I've been dying N1 all the time now. If a DT would like to inspect me, that would be perfectly fine.

Now onto business in case I die.

I personally believe at LEAST 1 mafia member lies on this list due to there being 5:

Cariad ​

Now Cariad (aka MissNoodle aka MissNiamh) doesn't sit right with me. I've played with her in many games so far.

She was a blue in XCOM mafia and her posts were more coherent and well thought out (although she only posted twice). Just the overall tone of them comes off differently from her playstyle this game:





It could just be me being nitpicky, but I noticed a difference in Cariad's typing from looking at her past games. She seems to be less careful as townie and mafia. In most of her townie games, the bulk of her posts consisted of talking about timezones and being inactive. Some of Cariad's posts that stuck out to me in this game:



We prodded and prodded for people to post suspicions and all Cariad came up with was the same thing regurgitated about Sataric that like 5 others said before her. To me it seems like backpacking on other player's suspicion so you LOOK like you're doing something when you're not, which is what she has done pretty much all game.



Again, we know that Dad is heavily into reaction testing. He has done it in every single game he has played, which is why I'm surprised at how she automatically attempted to get us to infer that he was scum. This is pretty much the kind of thing he was testing for.



Cariad jumps on SP after everyone has, repeating what they have all said as her reasons. SP is known for doing stupid stuff in games and lynching Yui because of a name was definitely one of them. I just find it interesting how easily Cariad has trailed after the suspicions of other people and basically said "OH YES THIS I AGREE ME TOO". I've put the random one-liners in a spoiler if anyone is interested, I don't have much to say about them other than how vastly the sentence structure and grammar contrasts with her blue posts above.

JellofishXD ​

I feel the same way about Jellofish that I do about Cariad. We have been on Jello's case for posting a lot, so they've had to actually try. Usually they sit in the shadows and barely skirt by getting modkilled.



Jellofish repeats everyone else's suspicion on Crystal, but does it in a wishy washy you're-scummy-but-you're-not-because-I-don't-want-attention way. Pointing out that they're worried about drawing suspicion for bandwagoning is also weird. I usually just post my thoughts on people, if they've already been said or not. Everyone analyzes posts differently, so my thoughts could sound different then say Dad's thoughts.





Cites Crystal getting mad as a reason why she's suspicious, then quickly rebuts Crystal getting mad in the next post? Jellofish only posted Crystal as sus as a retaliation for being called inactive with Ryan. Jello hasn't contributed an original thought to the game so far, which is why I feel like I can't trust them.

C r y s t a l​

Crystal has actually been posting, which contrasts with the two above. A lot of her posts have been responding to or asking questions and repeating people (does everyone see a pattern here? Scum hide in common opinions.)



While I agree that there should have not been a no lynch, why did Crystal jump straight away on these two? We have found that lynching the "easy lynches" straight out of the gate has only got us dead townies. I don't agree that Ryan88 should be a default lynch anymore. Yes he is terrible and roleclaims day one, but he is usually almost always town and provides a truthful roleclaim.



Again with Ryan88.



Backpacking on Oath's suspicion on Alise without providing any real reasoning why. Still going for easy targets.



Cory has been stepping up his game significantly this game (I noticed that when I read back through his posts). He started out quite strong and although he sort of deteriorated at night started, I get town reads from him. The fact that Crystal defended lynching SP, yet finds Cory suspicious for voting for him makes me raise my eyebrow. Crystal didn't vote for SP, why? Because she knew he was town and she could get called out for bandwagoning?


This is all I have atm. Night ends incredibly soon, but I wanted to get that out before then.

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Dad said:

Spoiler: BLAH BLAH DAD'S DUMB CASE

It depends on the setup imo. No lynch is usually a good option when there's a jailer that's still alive and when there's a smaller amount of players (and thus a smaller amount of mafia KP). I think Oath's last game was an exception in that no lynch was actually a better idea than it would have been if you couldn't steal roles from other players. This game isn't one of those games at the moment so I am very much against a no lynch.

Anyways, I'm not going to make a list on everyone in this game, but I'm going to namedrop a few people starting with somebody who has most of my attention at the moment (I'll get to others later, but this post is going to be a little exhausting).

Oath2Order​

I'm going to start with the person I believe is coming off as the scummiest in this game (I use scummy and not 'odd', I ain't afraid!). And this is the person I'm considering voting for at the moment. Before I begin to make a case on him, let me point out that I am not wanting to suspect him simply over his being against Sataric's (and other's) theory about the arsonist role, but the way in which he is responding to me and other people and the overall content of his posts. The three things that I am considering in this case are the content of his posts, what he seems to be focused on in this game, and his reactions to my posts against him.

Content: First off, Oath's posts are doing either one of two things this game: questioning and keeping people in doubt about their own analysis of what is happening in this game, or trying to put town on the track of lynching an inactive (and thus probably mislynching). While both of these things could mean he's using this as his playstyle as town, I can see them being used by a member of the mafia. In a no PM game, mafia can't figure out who could be who through circles of PMs and try to throw people off with PMs as well, so one of the next best things to do is get mislynches on people and make sure that town can't come up with a strong case against anyone on the mafia team. Below in the spoilers are the posts I categorize according to what he's doing with them.

Spoiler: Being questioning and encouraging doubt

Here's the bit that leads to the biggest arguments I've had with Oath, and something that he focused on.

While some of his posts also have what you might call 'filler', I think they tend to fall into the category of him trying to question people rather than analyze people's posts.

What he seems to be focused on this game: I don't have too much to say here because it's explained in my analysis of the content of his posts, but as I mentioned there, Oath seems focused on generating doubt rather than analyzing anybody's posts, which I think he could be capable of if he wanted to actually be pro-town. Although he's doing this far less than being questioning, Oath is also interested in lynching an inactive, or at least somebody who might be easy to lynch. You can argue that he isn't (and I might even be partial to that), but I just get this feeling that he'll want to based on his one list of inactives and avoiding talking about something else (in reaction 5 down below, I'll explain it more there).

His reactions to my posts against him: Here's where things get interesting for me. If you haven't read into our previous interaction in this game so far, I can summarize it as being an argument about him calling Sataric odd for bringing up the arsonist role theory. As I said before, I am more interested in how he responds to me when asking him about these things than any kind of clarification he could have made for me, because despite his little quip about me not being able to read into the game, I understood from the get-go that what he was curious about why this was brought up in this game and not past games. But at the same time I didn't forget that he called Sataric odd for trying to figure out what happened today, which is one of the few things that we can do tbh. Anyways! His reactions, let me get around to pointing them out.


He seems harmless enough with this reaction: he's claiming that he wasn't trying to discredit the theory, even though from his strong focus on being Sataric's devil's advocate, I don't think this is true. He does seem to want to discredit this, or at least create some doubt about it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think that the arsonist theory is the best and most important one in this game, because the one death today is likely a result of a combination of things, but what I have a problem with is that in trying to discredit the arsonist theory, Oath is creating a distraction for town and drilling somebody on pro-town behavior: trying to figure out the death.


Here it's pretty clear what I was grilling him on: him calling Sataric odd. But his reaction is questioning what I was even talking about when he clearly knew what I was talking about in following posts: he thinks Sataric had been behaving 'oddly'. But here he's just repeating what he said earlier because he thought I didn't get it. But the point wasn't about me getting what he was talking about, it was about his calling Sataric odd. Which I keep focusing on in this next exchange.


Again he seems to still want to argue that the only thing he's pointing out regarding Sataric's arsonist theory is that he was simply curious as to what has changed between games. But what I wanted to know is why he called Sataric odd, and as I specified, using it as a synonym for scummy. Of course, there was more to why he was calling Sataric odd than just the arsonist theory, which I'll finally bring up in my Reaction 4 spoiler.


Here is where some flags were really raised for me. While I didn't fully agree with what Dolby had to add, the fact that Oath's only reaction to Dolby here is that he turns it around and just points a finger back, claiming that he's bandwagoning and is behaving oddly seems like something a member of the mafia would do: trying to spin gold from straw, suspecting somebody over something as simple as 'bandwagoning' when it's clear that they didn't just jump onto the bandwagon and read into what was being said between us. Mafia like to do this because it causes mislynches when town is too weak to read into things themselves and are the true bandwagoners.


In the first part of this spoiler is the quote of a post when I finally bring up that Oath is saying Sataric is suspicious here because he's 'avoiding talking about mafia'. Again this just seems like another case of him trying to spin gold out of straw, because even the least analytical people in this game could probably tell that it wasn't Sataric's intention to avoid talking about mafia. But Oath was still trying to point sus at him for that anyways, and I pointed this out to Oath himself in this exchange. In doing that, I hope he would have caught onto the fact that I'm accusing him of 'spinning gold out of straw' as I'm calling it here, something mafia does to get mislynches on little things that people have done or said. He then goes on to say that he doesn't think it's reason to lynch Sataric over by itself, which makes me think that he actually did catch on to me thinking he's trying to drive mislynches and backs down about it. I mean, why would you bring these things up in the first place if you didn't want to collect a body of evidence to use later as a reason to lynch somebody? That, or you're just posting to seem like you're acting pro-town and in a sense fillering. In this final reaction, there's more avoidance.


In my first sentence I was accusing him of lying about his statement on Sataric avoiding talking about mafia being definitive, to which he replies that he wasn't 100% sure that this was Sataric's intention. If he was, it'd be pretty hard to run with, so it makes sense not to consider it definitive. In my second sentence what I'm actually saying to Oath there is that I think that he wants to use little pieces of evidence and 'weird' behavior to lynch somebody since there aren't that many inactive people in this game. Instead of actually addressing this (here's the avoidance), he goes on to list a couple of people that he considers inactive. A list which aside from elise and Alice wasn't very accurate.

For all of these things put together, I am voting to lynch Oath2Order.

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Dad said:

Tom & Sataric: I know you've asked me to drop the subject but the kallie thing is worth thinking about when it comes to me reading into the both of you, because hiding something that town might not figure out until after the game isn't helpful at all, unless Sataric is who I think he is. Nevertheless, I feel like Sataric isn't a threat to town at the moment and is one of the more pro-town players in this game. Tom on the other hand, I'm having trouble reading into. His behavior doesn't exactly reflect what it was in Sunleth, but his whole 'SP annoys me' and 'I'm not contributing much because town annoys me' is somewhat similar to how he acted in Sunleth, although there are a lot of different factors in this game, one of which is people (thank god) not claiming all over the place in this game. I don't think these two are a mason pair or lovers because Tom was initially confused about Sataric's cryptic kallie riddle. He wouldn't have been if they were already able to speak in private (without cheating).

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oath2order said:

Dad: Pro scum hunter 2k14.

Why the hell did they kill me; like, I'm sus as hell.

Shame I got blocked. Could've had elise's role.

To quote Jubs

gg team you ****in' lost

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